Interactions between rail and road safety in Great Britain

This paper discusses the results of an investigation into ways in which the safety risks of travel on road and rail interact with each other in Great Britain, other than through physical contact such as at level crossings. The two main foci of the paper are: (1) an analysis of the 'whole journey' risks of journeys for which the national rail system is the main mode, but which also include stages by other transport modes to provide access to the railway system: and (2) an analysis of the effect on safety risk of inter-modal transfers between rail and road. On (1), walking to and from stations was estimated to account on average for 65% of the overall door-to-door risk of being killed on rail journeys: the rail system itself accounts for 21% of the risk, and other access modes account for the remaining 14%. The average distance walked to and from stations is 0.9 km per rail journey, and this walking accounts for 5% of all walking nationally. On (2), it was found that increasing rail fares to fund railway safety measures may lead passengers to switch from rail to car, but for most sensible rail safety measures, the additional risks from such diversions are small compared with the intended rail safety benefits. However, for high-cost rail safety measures funded by passengers, the additional risks from diversions may be of the same order as the intended safety benefits. The last section of the paper explores the effects of variations in the casualty rates of rail users as pedestrians and car users. because their road risks may be different from those of all road users. Such variations could alter the detailed conclusions of the paper, but the scale of such effects appears to be modest. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Traverses, delays and fatalities at railway level crossings in Great Britain

This paper investigates relationships between traverses, delays and fatalities to road users at railway level crossings in Great Britain. A 'traverse' means a passage across a level crossing by a road user, who may be a pedestrian, cyclist, or occupant of a road vehicle. The paper finds that the road users with the highest fatality rate per traverse are pedestrians at passive crossings. Their rate is about three orders of magnitude higher than that of users with the lowest risk, who are road vehicle occupants at railway-controlled crossings. The paper considers the choice between automatic and railway-controlled crossings on public roads. Railway-controlled crossings are widely used in Britain. They are about one order of magnitude safer than automatic crossings, but they impose greater delays on users. A formula is developed to give the overall delay to road users at either type of crossing in terms of the numbers of road users and trains per day, and in terms of the length of time that the crossing must be closed to the road to allow the passage of one train. It is found that automatic level crossings cause substantially less delay than railway-controlled level crossings. The official monetary values of road user delay and of preventing a fatality were used to estimate the valuations of delays and fatalities at hypothetical but representative automatic and railway-controlled crossings. These valuations were then used to explore the effect of replacing representative railway-controlled with automatic crossings or vice-versa. It is found that the valuation of the reduced delays from adopting automatic crossings typically outweighs the valuation of the losses from the increased casualties. However, in practice Britain has chosen to retain a large number of railway-controlled crossings, which implies accepting the delays in return for a good level crossing safety record. Finally, an analysis is carried out to determine the additional risk of typical car and walk journeys that involve traversing a level crossing compared with similar journeys that do not. It is found that the additional risk is small for motor vehicle journeys, but substantial for walk journeys

Linear estimation of flux sensitivity to uncertainty in porous media

We derive an integral expression for the flux of a single-phase fluid through a porous medium with prescribed boundary conditions. Taking variations with respect to the parameters of a given permeability model yields an integral expression for the sensitivity of the flux. We then extend the method to consider linear changes in permeability. This yields a linearised flux expression which is independent of changes in the pressure field that result from the changes in the permeability. For demonstration purposes, we first consider an idealised layered porous medium with a point source and point sink. We show how the effects of changes in permeability are affected by the position of the source and sink relative to the layered structure as well as the layer height and orientation of the layered structure. The results demonstrate that, even in a simple porous system, flux estimates are sensitive to the way in which the permeability is represented. We derive relationships between the statistical moments of the flux and of the permeability parameters which are modelled as random variables. This allows us to estimate the number of permeability parameters that should be varied in a fully nonlinear calculation to determine the variance of the flux. We demonstrate application of the methods to permeability fields generated through fast Fourier transform and kriging methods. We show that the linear estimates for the variability in flux show good agreement with fully nonlinear calculations for sufficiently small standard deviations in the underlying permeability.The support of an Industrial CASE studentship from EPSRC and BP for A. J. Evans entitled "Optimal Reservoir Modelling" is gratefully acknowledged.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from CUP at http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9603056&fileId=S0022112015001020

Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft

In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50–100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth

Telomere length regulation: coupling DNA end processing to feedback regulation of telomerase

The conventional DNA polymerase machinery is unable to fully replicate the ends of linear chromosomes. To surmount this problem, nearly all eukaryotes use the telomerase enzyme, a specialized reverse transcriptase that utizes its own RNA template to add short TG-rich repeats to chromosome ends, thus reversing their gradual erosion occurring at each round of replication. This unique, non-DNA templated mode of telomere replication requires a regulatory mechanism to ensure that telomerase acts at telomeres whose TG tracts are too short, but not at those with long tracts, thus maintaining the protective TG repeat cap at an appropriate average length. The prevailing notion in the field is that telomere length regulation is brought about through a negative feedback mechanism that counts TG repeat-bound protein complexes to generate a signal that regulates telomerase action. This review summarizes experiments leading up to this model and then focuses on more recent experiments, primarily from yeast, that begin to suggest how this counting mechanism might work. The emerging picture is that of a complex interplay between the conventional DNA replication machinery, DNA damage response factors, and a specialized set of proteins that help to recruit and regulate the telomerase enzyme

Access to Principal Treatment Centres and survival rates for children and young people with cancer in Yorkshire, UK

Background: Principal Treatment Centres (PTC) were established to provide age-appropriate care as well as clinical expertise for children and young people with cancer. However, little is known about the effects of specialist treatment centres on survival outcomes especially for teenagers and young adults. This population-based study aimed to describe access to PTC and the associated trends in survival for 0–24 year olds accounting for stage of disease at presentation and treatment. Methods: Patients diagnosed from 1998–2009 aged 0–24 years were extracted from the Yorkshire Specialist Register of Cancer in Children and Young People, including information on all treating hospitals, followed-up until 31st December 2014. The six commonest cancer types were included: leukaemia (n = 684), lymphoma (n = 558), CNS tumours (n = 547), germ cell tumours (n = 364), soft tissue sarcomas (n = 171) and bone tumours (n = 163). Treatment was categorised into three groups: ‘all’, ‘some’ or ‘no’ treatment received at a PTC. Treatment at PTC was examined by diagnostic group and patient characteristics. Overall survival was modelled using Cox regression adjusting for case-mix including stage, treatment and other socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. Results: Overall 72% of patients received all their treatment at PTC whilst 13% had no treatment at PTC. This differed by diagnostic group and age at diagnosis. Leukaemia patients who received no treatment at PTC had an increased risk of death which was partially explained by differences in patient case-mix (adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.73 (95%CI 0.98–3.04)). Soft tissue sarcoma patients who had some or no treatment at PTC had better survival outcomes, which remained after adjustment for patient case-mix (adjusted HR = 0.48 (95%CI 0.23–0.99)). There were no significant differences in outcomes for other diagnostic groups (lymphoma, CNS tumours, bone tumours and germ cell tumours). For leukaemia patients survival outcomes for low risk patients receiving no treatment at PTC were similar to high risk patients who received all treatment at PTC, implying a benefit for care at the PTC. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that for leukaemia patients receiving treatment at a PTC is associated with improved survival that may compensate for a poorer prognosis presentation. However, further information on risk factors is needed for all diagnostic groups in order to fully account for differences in patient case-mix

Microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility assay for the diagnosis of TB.

BACKGROUND: New diagnostic tools are urgently needed to interrupt the transmission of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Rapid, sensitive detection of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in sputum has been demonstrated in proof-of-principle studies of the microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility (MODS) assay, in which broth cultures are examined microscopically to detect characteristic growth. METHODS: In an operational setting in Peru, we investigated the performance of the MODS assay for culture and drug-susceptibility testing in three target groups: unselected patients with suspected tuberculosis, prescreened patients at high risk for tuberculosis or multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, and unselected hospitalized patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus. We compared the MODS assay head-to-head with two reference methods: automated mycobacterial culture and culture on Löwenstein-Jensen medium with the proportion method. RESULTS: Of 3760 sputum samples, 401 (10.7%) yielded cultures positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Sensitivity of detection was 97.8% for MODS culture, 89.0% for automated mycobacterial culture, and 84.0% for Löwenstein-Jensen culture (P<0.001); the median time to culture positivity was 7 days, 13 days, and 26 days, respectively (P<0.001), and the median time to the results of susceptibility tests was 7 days, 22 days, and 68 days, respectively. The incremental benefit of a second MODS culture was minimal, particularly in patients at high risk for tuberculosis or multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Agreement between MODS and the reference standard for susceptibility was 100% for rifampin, 97% for isoniazid, 99% for rifampin and isoniazid (combined results for multidrug resistance), 95% for ethambutol, and 92% for streptomycin (kappa values, 1.0, 0.89, 0.93, 0.71, and 0.72, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A single MODS culture of a sputum sample offers more rapid and sensitive detection of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis than the existing gold-standard methods used

Transmission efficiency and noise, vibration and harshness refinement of differential hypoid gear pairs

This article presents a combined multi-body dynamics and lubricated contact mechanics model of vehicular differential hypoid gear pairs, demonstrating the transient nature of transmission efficiency and noise, vibration and harshness performance under various driving conditions. The contact of differential hypoid gears is subjected to mixed thermo-elastohydrodynamic regime of lubrication. The coefficient of friction is obtained using an analytical approach for non-Newtonian lubricant shear and supplemented by boundary interactions for thin films. Additionally, road data and aerodynamic effects are used in the form of resisting torque applied to the output side of the gear pair. Sinusoidal engine torque variation is also included to represent engine order torsional input resident on the pinion gear. Analysis results are presented for New European Driving Cycle transience from low-speed city driving condition in second gear to steady-state cruising in fourth gear for a light truck. It is shown that the New European Driving Cycle captures the transmission efficiency characteristics of the differential hypoid gear pair under worst case scenario, with its underlying implications for fuel efficiency and emissions. However, it fails to address the other key attribute, being the noise, vibration and harshness performance. In the case of hypoid gears, the resultant noise, vibration and harshness characteristics can be particularly annoying. It is concluded that broader transient manoeuvres encompassing New European Driving Cycle are required for assessment, in order to obtain a balanced approach for transmission efficiency and noise, vibration and harshness performance. This approach is undertaken in this article, which is not hitherto reported in the literature

Extending the applicability of the dose addition model to the assessment of chemical mixtures of partial agonists by using a novel toxic unit extrapolation method

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Dose addition, a commonly used concept in toxicology for the prediction of chemical mixture effects, cannot readily be applied to mixtures of partial agonists with differing maximal effects. Due to its mathematical features, effect levels that exceed the maximal effect of the least efficacious compound present in the mixture, cannot be calculated. This poses problems when dealing with mixtures likely to be encountered in realistic assessment situations where chemicals often show differing maximal effects. To overcome this limitation, we developed a pragmatic solution that extrapolates the toxic units of partial agonists to effect levels beyond their maximal efficacy. We extrapolated different additivity expectations that reflect theoretically possible extremes and validated this approach with a mixture of 21 estrogenic chemicals in the E-Screen. This assay measures the proliferation of human epithelial breast cancers. We found that the dose-response curves of the estrogenic agents exhibited widely varying shapes, slopes and maximal effects, which made it necessary to extrapolate mixture responses above 14% proliferation. Our toxic unit extrapolation approach predicted all mixture responses accurately. It extends the applicability of dose addition to combinations of agents with differing saturating effects and removes an important bottleneck that has severely hampered the use of dose addition in the past. © 2014 Scholze et al

The logic-bias effect: The role of effortful processing in the resolution of belief-logic conflict.

According to the default interventionist dual-process account of reasoning, belief-based responses to reasoning tasks are based on Type 1 processes generated by default, which must be inhibited in order to produce an effortful, Type 2 output based on the validity of an argument. However, recent research has indicated that reasoning on the basis of beliefs may not be as fast and automatic as this account claims. In three experiments, we presented participants with a reasoning task that was to be completed while they were generating random numbers (RNG). We used the novel methodology introduced by Handley, Newstead & Trippas (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 37, 28-43, 2011), which required participants to make judgments based upon either the validity of a conditional argument or the believability of its conclusion. The results showed that belief-based judgments produced lower rates of accuracy overall and were influenced to a greater extent than validity judgments by the presence of a conflict between belief and logic for both simple and complex arguments. These findings were replicated in Experiment 3, in which we controlled for switching demands in a blocked design. Across all three experiments, we found a main effect of RNG, implying that both instructional sets require some effortful processing. However, in the blocked design RNG had its greatest impact on logic judgments, suggesting that distinct executive resources may be required for each type of judgment. We discuss the implications of our findings for the default interventionist account and offer a parallel competitive model as an alternative interpretation for our findings