We derive an integral expression for the flux of a single-phase fluid through a porous medium with prescribed boundary conditions. Taking variations with respect to the parameters of a given permeability model yields an integral expression for the sensitivity of the flux. We then extend the method to consider linear changes in permeability. This yields a linearised flux expression which is independent of changes in the pressure field that result from the changes in the permeability. For demonstration purposes, we first consider an idealised layered porous medium with a point source and point sink. We show how the effects of changes in permeability are affected by the position of the source and sink relative to the layered structure as well as the layer height and orientation of the layered structure. The results demonstrate that, even in a simple porous system, flux estimates are sensitive to the way in which the permeability is represented. We derive relationships between the statistical moments of the flux and of the permeability parameters which are modelled as random variables. This allows us to estimate the number of permeability parameters that should be varied in a fully nonlinear calculation to determine the variance of the flux. We demonstrate application of the methods to permeability fields generated through fast Fourier transform and kriging methods. We show that the linear estimates for the variability in flux show good agreement with fully nonlinear calculations for sufficiently small standard deviations in the underlying permeability.The support of an Industrial CASE studentship from EPSRC and BP for A. J. Evans
entitled "Optimal Reservoir Modelling" is gratefully acknowledged.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from CUP at http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9603056&fileId=S0022112015001020
