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The many (distinctive) faces of leadership : inferring leadership domain from facial appearance

Previous research has shown that people form impressions of potential leaders from their faces and that certain facial features predict success in reaching prestigious leadership positions. However, much less is known about the accuracy or meta-accuracy of face-based leadership inferences. Here we examine a simple, but important, question: Can leadership domain be inferred from faces? We find that human judges can identify business, military, and sports leaders (but not political leaders) from their faces with above-chance accuracy. However, people are surprisingly bad at evaluating their own performance on this judgment task: We find no relationship between how well judges think they performed and their actual accuracy levels. In a follow-up study, we identify several basic dimensions of evaluation that correlate with face-based judgments of leadership domain, as well as those that predict actual leadership domain. We discuss the implications of our results for leadership perception and selection

Quasar Proper Motions and Low-Frequency Gravitational Waves

We report observational upper limits on the mass-energy of the cosmological gravitational-wave background, from limits on proper motions of quasars. Gravitational waves with periods longer than the time span of observations produce a simple pattern of apparent proper motions over the sky, composed primarily of second-order transverse vector spherical harmonics. A fit of such harmonics to measured motions yields a 95%-confidence limit on the mass-energy of gravitational waves with frequencies <2e-9 Hz, of <0.11/h*h times the closure density of the universe.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure. Also available at http://charm.physics.ucsb.edu:80/people/cgwinn/cgwinn_group/index.htm

Drops for stuff: An analysis of reshipping mule scams

Credit card fraud has seen rampant increase in the past years, as customers use credit cards and similar financial instruments frequently. Both online and brick-and-mortar outfits repeatedly fall victim to cybercriminals who siphon off credit card information in bulk. Despite the many and creative ways that attackers use to steal and trade credit card information, the stolen information can rarely be used to withdraw money directly, due to protection mechanisms such as PINs and cash advance limits. As such, cybercriminals have had to devise more advanced monetization schemes towork around the current restrictions. One monetization scheme that has been steadily gaining traction are reshipping scams. In such scams, cybercriminals purchase high-value or highly-demanded products from online merchants using stolen payment instruments, and then ship the items to a credulous citizen. This person, who has been recruited by the scammer under the guise of "work-from-home" opportunities, then forwards the received products to the cybercriminals, most of whom are located overseas. Once the goods reach the cybercriminals, they are then resold on the black market for an illicit profit. Due to the intricacies of this kind of scam, it is exceedingly difficult to trace, stop, and return shipments, which is why reshipping scams have become a common means for miscreants to turn stolen credit cards into cash. In this paper, we report on the first large-scale analysis of reshipping scams, based on information that we obtained from multiple reshipping scam websites. We provide insights into the underground economy behind reshipping scams, such as the relationships among the various actors involved, the market size of this kind of scam, and the associated operational churn. We find that there exist prolific reshipping scam operations, with one having shipped nearly 6,000 packages in just 9 months of operation, exceeding 7.3 million US dollars in yearly revenue, contributing to an overall reshipping scam revenue of an estimated 1.8 billion US dollars per year. Finally, we propose possible approaches to intervene and disrupt reshipping scam services

Vacuum Polarization in the Spacetime of a Scalar-Tensor Cosmic String

We study the vacuum polarization effect in the spacetime generated by a magnetic flux cosmic string in the framework of a scalar-tensor gravity. The vacuum expectation values of the energy-momentum tensor of a conformally coupled scalar field are calculated. The dilaton's contribution to the vacuum polarization effect is shown explicitly.Comment: 11 pages, LATEX file, 2 eps figure

Future Challenges in Psychotherapy Research for Personality Disorders.

Individuals with personality disorders are frequently seen in mental health settings. Their symptoms typically reflect a high level of suffering and burden of disease, with potentially harmful societal consequences, including costs related to absenteeism at work, high use of health services, ineffective or harmful parenting, substance use, suicidal and non-suicidal self-harming behavior, and aggressiveness with legal consequences. Psychotherapy is currently the first-line treatment for patients with personality disorders, but the study of psychotherapy in the domain of personality disorders faces specific challenges. Challenges include knowing what works for whom, identifying which putative mechanisms of change explain therapeutic effects, and including the social interaction context of patients with a personality disorder. By following a dimensional approach, psychotherapy research on personality disorders may serve as a model for the development and study of innovative psychotherapeutic interventions. We recommend developing the following: (a) an evidence base to make treatment decisions based on individual features; (b) a data-driven approach to predictors, moderators, and mechanisms of change in psychotherapy; (c) methods for studying the interaction between social context and psychotherapy

Opening the Black Box of Family-Based Treatments: an artificial intelligence Framework to Examine therapeutic alliance and therapist Empathy

The evidence-based treatment (EBT) movement has primarily focused on core intervention content or treatment fidelity and has largely ignored practitioner skills to manage interpersonal process issues that emerge during treatment, especially with difficult-to-treat adolescents (delinquent, substance-using, medical non-adherence) and those of color. A chief complaint of real world practitioners about manualized treatments is the lack of correspondence between following a manual and managing microsocial interpersonal processes (e.g. negative affect) that arise in treating real world clients. Although family-based EBTs share core similarities (e.g. focus on family interactions, emphasis on practitioner engagement, family involvement), most of these treatments do not have an evidence base regarding common implementation and treatment process problems that practitioners experience in delivering particular models, especially in mid-treatment when demands on families to change their behavior is greatest in treatment - a lack that characterizes the field as a whole. Failure to effectively address common interpersonal processes with difficult-to-treat families likely undermines treatment fidelity and sustained use of EBTs, treatment outcome, and contributes to treatment dropout and treatment nonadherence. Recent advancements in wearables, sensing technologies, multivariate time-series analyses, and machine learning allow scientists to make significant advancements in the study of psychotherapy processes by looking under the skin of the provider-client interpersonal interactions that define therapeutic alliance, empathy, and empathic accuracy, along with the predictive validity of these therapy processes (therapeutic alliance, therapist empathy) to treatment outcome. Moreover, assessment of these processes can be extended to develop procedures for training providers to manage difficult interpersonal processes while maintaining a physiological profile that is consistent with astute skills in psychotherapeutic processes. This paper argues for opening the black box of therapy to advance the science of evidence-based psychotherapy by examining the clinical interior of evidence-based treatments to develop the next generation of audit- and feedback- (i.e., systemic review of professional performance) supervision systems

Astrometric and Timing Effects of Gravitational Waves from Localized Sources

A consistent approach for an exhaustive solution of the problem of propagation of light rays in the field of gravitational waves emitted by a localized source of gravitational radiation is developed in the first post-Minkowskian and quadrupole approximation of General Relativity. We demonstrate that the equations of light propagation in the retarded gravitational field of an arbitrary localized source emitting quadrupolar gravitational waves can be integrated exactly. The influence of the gravitational field on the light propagation is examined not only in the wave zone but also in cases when light passes through the intermediate and near zones of the source. Explicit analytic expressions for light deflection and integrated time delay (Shapiro effect) are obtained accounting for all possible retardation effects and arbitrary relative locations of the source of gravitational waves, that of light rays, and the observer. It is shown that the ADM and harmonic gauge conditions can both be satisfied simultaneously outside the source of gravitational waves. Their use drastically simplifies the integration of light propagation equations and those for the motion of light source and observer in the field of the source of gravitational waves, leading to the unique interpretation of observable effects. The two limiting cases of small and large values of impact parameter are elaborated in more detail. Explicit expressions for Shapiro effect and deflection angle are obtained in terms of the transverse-traceless part of the space-space components of the metric tensor. We also discuss the relevance of the developed formalism for interpretation of radio interferometric and timing observations, as well as for data processing algorithms for future gravitational wave detectors.Comment: 43 pages, 4 Postscript figures, uses revtex.sty, accepted to Phys. Rev. D, minor corrections in formulae regarding algebraic sign

Reconstruction of a scalar-tensor theory of gravity in an accelerating universe

The present acceleration of the Universe strongly indicated by recent observational data can be modeled in the scope of a scalar-tensor theory of gravity. We show that it is possible to determine the structure of this theory (the scalar field potential and the functional form of the scalar-gravity coupling) along with the present density of dustlike matter from the following two observable cosmological functions: the luminosity distance and the linear density perturbation in the dustlike matter component as functions of redshift. Explicit results are presented in the first order in the small inverse Brans-Dicke parameter 1/omega.Comment: 4 pages, LaTeX 2.09, REVTeX 3.0, two-column forma

Being a Self-Employed Older Woman: From Discrimination to Activism

This article presents an autobiographical account of an older woman’s lived experience of self-employment. Little is known about women who experience ongoing self-employment into their 50s and beyond. Shoshanna’s personal narrative describes her experiences and the challenges she has faced as she reflects upon her attempts to grow and sustain her business and the implications of ageism and gender inequality in laying a claim to entrepreneurship. The narrative proceeds to reflect on her activist work, as it is constructed through the creation of a social enterprise to support older people. Shoshanna’s narrative provides valuable insights into the intersection of age and gender in self-employment moving from discrimination to active support