The role of the stratosphere in Iberian Peninsula rainfall: a preliminary approach in February

This paper attempts to establish a connection between stratospheric anomalies in the North Pole and rainfall on the Iberian Peninsula through the occurrence of major midwinter warmings (MMWs) and cold events (CEs), taking February as a preliminary approach. We define the MMWs as the warmings which break down the polar vortex, whereas the CEs are the episodes in which the polar vortex remains cold and undisturbed. Both anomalies lead to a wind anomaly around the north polar stratosphere, which is connected with a shortly lagged tropospheric anomaly through a stratosphere-troposphere coupling in winter. A T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was used as an objective pattern classification method for identifying the main daily surface-level pressure (SLP) patterns for February for the 1961-1990 reference period. Subsequently, those February months with an MMW or a CE influence in the troposphere are identified in the whole study period (1958-2000) by means of the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). Thus, performing the same analysis for the selected February months, new principal patterns for detecting changes in surface circulation structure and morphology are obtained. The results show a significant decrease in the westerlies and a southward shift of the storm tracks in Western Europe some weeks after an MMW occurrence, leading to an increase in precipitation in western Iberia and a slight decrease on the eastern Mediterranean fringe. The results are quite the opposite under a CE influence: the westerlies are strengthened and shifted northwards due to the displacement of the Atlantic anticyclone towards Central Europe; dry conditions are established throughout Iberia, except for the Mediterranean fringe, where precipitation shows a considerable increase due to the greater frequency of the northeasterly winds. Finally, an 11-year sunspot cycle-quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) modulation might be demonstrated in Iberian rainfall in February through the occurrence of these stratospheric anomalies

Downscaling estadístico a muy alta resolución espacial de las proyecciones climáticas de cubierta de nieve para los Pirineos

Ponencia presentada en: XII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Santiago de Compostela entre el 19 y el 21 de octubre de 2022.[ES]El estudio de la evolución de la cubierta de nieve ha centrado la atención de diversas investigaciones en el área de los Pirineos. La gran mayoría de estos estudios tratan de calcular las tendencias o cambios observados hasta ahora en esta variable. En el presente trabajo se realiza el downscaling estadístico a 1km de resolución espacial de una serie de modelos climáticos derivados del 6º Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), con el objetivo de proyectar la cubierta de nieve –presencia o ausencia de esta, a partir de las imágenes satelitales capturadas por el sensor MODIS– a nivel diario, y empleando distintos escenarios de cambios socioeconómicos globales proyectados hasta 2100 a 1km de resolución espacial. Los primeros resultados plantean una drástica reducción de los días con cubierta de nieve en toda la cordillera, siendo esta muy notable a final de siglo bajo el escenario SSP5-8.5, implicando temporadas de cubierta de nieve con una duración de 50 días en la vertiente sur para una franja altitudinal de 1600-2000 m s.n.m, contrastando con los 100-150 días contabilizados de media en el período 2001-2014, para este mismo estrato altitudinal. Otro resultado destacado es la práctica desaparición de la cubierta de nieve a principios y finales de temporada, bajo un escenario intermedio (SSP5-4.5) y de elevadas emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (SSP5-8.5), lo que indica un claro acortamiento de la temporada de nieve para toda la cordillera y supondrá una importante reducción de los aportes hídricos provenientes del manto nival durante la primavera y el periodo estival.[EN]The evolution of the snow cover has been the focus of several studies in the Pyrenees. The vast majority of these studies attempted to estimate the recent trends or the observed changes in this variable. In the present work, statistical downscaling is performed at 1 km spatial resolution for a set of climate models derived from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with the aim of projecting snow cover - presence or absence, based on satellite images captured by the MODIS sensor - at a daily level, and using different socio-economic global change scenarios projected up to 2100. The first results show a drastic reduction in the number of days with snow cover in the entire mountain range, being very noticeable at the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, implying snow cover seasons with a duration of 50 days on the southern slope for an altitudinal range of 1600-2000 masl, in contrast with the 100-150 days recorded on average in the period 2001-2014, for the same altitudinal range. Another remarkable result is the virtual disappearance of snow cover at the beginning and end of the season, under an intermediate scenario (SSP5-4.5) and high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5-8.5), which indicates a clear shortening of the snow season for this area and will lead to a significant reduction in water inputs from the snowpack during the spring and summer period.La presente investigación se ha realizado en el marco del Grupo de Climatología de la Universidad de Barcelona (2017 SGR 1362, Generalitat de Catalunya), y del proyecto EXE (PID2020-116860RB-C21) financiado por el Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación

Classificació de tipus de circulació atmosfèrica: proposta metodològica i aplicacions

[cat] La classificació de la circulació atmosfèrica s’ha abordat de diferents maneres: mètodes manuals, mixtes, basats en l’estadística multivariant, entre d’altres. En aquest treball es fa un extens i actualitzat recorregut per aquests mètodes i es fa una proposta metodològica basada en l’anàlisi per components principals: el mètode de les puntuacions extremes. Aquesta metodologia, basada en l’aproximació tradicional que empra la matriu tipus S, proposa una estandardització espacial de les dades originals (malles), l’ús dels valors més elevats de les puntuacions factorials per a la determinació del nombre de grups de la classificació i els seus centroides, i finalment l’assignació dels casos a algun dels grups sense l’ús de les iteracions característiques dels mètodes de k-mitjanes. La proposta s’aplica posteriorment a diferents casos pràctics relacionats amb diferents enfocs de les ciències atmosfèriques: meteorologia de muntanya, variabilitat climàtica i canvi climàtic, cartografia climàtica i riscos meteorològics. Aquests casos pràctics es presenten a través de quatre articles publicats a diferents revistes internacionals. El primer cas fa una caracterització de les nevades intenses al Principat d’Andorra a partir de la classificació de la pressió en superfície a l’àmbit de l’Europa Occidental, obtenint-se set patrons de circulació que expliquen la varietat de situacions associades a nevades superiors a 30cm en 24 hores en algun lloc del Principat. La detecció d’aquesta variabilitat, i la detecció de situacions de la mateixa component però amb diferencies en el gradient de pressió fan del catàleg obtingut com una eina interessant en la predicció meteorològica en aquest sector del Pirineu. Aquest article va ser publicat a la revista International Journal of Climatology l’any 2005. El segon cas fa una classificació genèrica de la circulació atmosfèrica a l’Europa Occidental, entre 1960 i 2001 i emprant, com en el cas anterior, el reanàlisi de l’NCEP-NCAR (1 dada diària i 2.5º de resolució espacial). S’obtenen 20 patrons que expliquen de forma molt completa la variabilitat de la circulació atmosfèrica en aquest sector. A més, per cadascun dels patrons obtinguts s’ha calculat la seva distribució anual i la seva tendència al llarg del període. Precisament sobre aquest darrer punt, alguns patrons mostren tendències estadísticament significatives que apunten cap a un increment de les situacions de bloqueig anticiclònic durant les dècades estudiades. L’article fou publicat a International Journal of Climatology al 2006. El tercer cas aborda la obtenció de cartografia de temperatura i precipitació en zones d’orografia complexa (Andorra) relacionada amb els patrons de circulació obtinguts en el treball anterior. Els resultats, 80 mapes d’alta resolució calculats amb el mètode de la regressió múltiple, mostren la variabilitat climàtica local basada en la discriminació que estableix un catàleg de la circulació atmosfèrica. L’article fou publicat a la revista Theoretical and Applied Climatology al 2009. Finalment, el quart cas aborda l’activitat dels llamps al sector d’Andorra i Catalunya, però en aquest cas classificant una malla de pressió en superfície de més resolució temporal i espacial (dades cada 6 hores i a 1º). S’obtenen nou tipus de circulació atmosfèrica que representen situacions de caràcter advectiu (definides sobretot pel context sinòptic), dominades per la dinàmica mesoescalar (normalment efecte del dipol orogràfic pirinenc), o situacions de caràcter tèrmic dominades per la manca de gradient bàric. Aquest treball fou publicat a Physics and Chemistry of the Earth al 2010. Els resultats mostren que la proposta del mètode de les puntuacions extremes és una opció prou robusta per a la obtenció de tipus de circulació atmosfèrica i que pot ser aplicada a diferents resolucions temporals i espacials. Aquest mètode ha estat implementat al programari lliure COST733class desenvolupat en l’àmbit del projecte europeu COST733 (2005-2010) centrat en la comparació i avaluació de mètodes de classificació de la circulació atmosfèrica.[eng] Atmospheric circulation types classification: a method proposal and applications. The classification of atmospheric circulation has been addressed via different methodological approaches: manual methods, mixed methods, based on multivariate techniques, etc. In this work we present an extensive overview of the main existing typologies of circulation type classification methods for finally propose a new approach based on principal component analysis: the method of extreme scores. This new approach highlight the spatial standardization of the original data (gridded data), the use of the factor scores for determining the total amount of circulation types and their centroids, and finally support the non use of iterations for the final classification of all the cases into the groups via the Euclidian distance. The proposal is then applied to heavy snow precipitation events in Andorra (Pyrenees), to climate variability analysis over Western Europe, to the interpolation of climate variables in mountain areas (temperature and precipitation in Andorra) based on circulation types, and for analyze relevant lightning activity over the sector of Catalonia and Andorra. These applications are presented trough the corresponding publications in international scientific journals, and exemplify the usefulness of the atmospheric circulation classification methods for the study of mountain meteorology, climate variability and climate change, climate mapping in areas of complex topography using GIS techniques, and weather hazards situations. In addition, these applications also demonstrate the goodness of the proposed method of the extreme scores. This method of the extreme scores has been included in the classification software COST733class developed by the European project COST733 that was focused on the comparison and evaluation of circulation type classification methods

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h)

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h)

The role of the stratosphere in Iberian Peninsula rainfall: a preliminary approach in February

This paper attempts to establish a connection between stratospheric anomalies in the North Pole and rainfall on the Iberian Peninsula through the occurrence of major midwinter warmings (MMWs) and cold events (CEs), taking February as a preliminary approach. We define the MMWs as the warmings which break down the polar vortex, whereas the CEs are the episodes in which the polar vortex remains cold and undisturbed. Both anomalies lead to a wind anomaly around the north polar stratosphere, which is connected with a shortly lagged tropospheric anomaly through a stratosphere-troposphere coupling in winter. A T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was used as an objective pattern classification method for identifying the main daily surface-level pressure (SLP) patterns for February for the 1961-1990 reference period. Subsequently, those February months with an MMW or a CE influence in the troposphere are identified in the whole study period (1958-2000) by means of the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). Thus, performing the same analysis for the selected February months, new principal patterns for detecting changes in surface circulation structure and morphology are obtained. The results show a significant decrease in the westerlies and a southward shift of the storm tracks in Western Europe some weeks after an MMW occurrence, leading to an increase in precipitation in western Iberia and a slight decrease on the eastern Mediterranean fringe. The results are quite the opposite under a CE influence: the westerlies are strengthened and shifted northwards due to the displacement of the Atlantic anticyclone towards Central Europe; dry conditions are established throughout Iberia, except for the Mediterranean fringe, where precipitation shows a considerable increase due to the greater frequency of the northeasterly winds. Finally, an 11-year sunspot cycle-quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) modulation might be demonstrated in Iberian rainfall in February through the occurrence of these stratospheric anomalies

Análisis de la temperatura en alta montaña: reciente descenso térmico invernal en el Pirineo oriental y su relación con la circulación atmosférica. Resultados preliminares

Ponencia presentada en: V Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Zaragoza del 18 al 21 de septiembre de 2006.[ES]El presente trabajo apunta la posible finalización del aumento de las temperaturas medias registrado a mediados del siglo XX en zonas de alta montaña del Pirineo Oriental, a través de del análisis de las temperaturas mínimas invernales. Los resultados indican incluso una oscilación térmica negativa apreciable y ponen de manifiesto su relación con una inflexión en la evolución del índice de la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO) desde 1990 hasta 2006.[EN]In this communication, an analysis of winter mean minimum temperatures at high elevation sites of the Eastern Pyrenees is carried out, indicating a likely disruption of the warming detected in mid-twentieth century. The results also detect a noticeable negative oscillation, in close relation to the inflection of the North Atlantic Oscillation index highlighted from 1990 until 2006