Soil moisture mediated interaction between Polygonatum biflorum and leaf spot disease

Fungal pathogens can regulate the abundance and distribution of natural plant populations by inhibiting the growth, survival, and reproduction of their hosts. The abiotic environment is a crucial component in host–pathogen interactions in natural plant populations as favorable conditions drive pathogen development, reproduction, and persistence. Foliar plant pathogens, such as fungal lesions referred to generically as “leaf spot disease,” are particularly responsive to increased moisture levels, but the manner in which the abiotic environment drives disease dynamics, and how these diseases regulate natural plant populations, is not fully understood. We investigate (1) the impact of ambient soil moisture and diffuse light on the prevalence of a leaf spot pathogen (Phyllosticta sp.) in a natural population of Polygonatum biflorum, an understory herb native to deciduous forest understories in the eastern US, and (2) the effects of the fungal pathogen on the survival, growth, and abundance of the plants. We tracked six P. biflorum populations and disease incidence, as well as soil moisture and diffuse light, between 2003 and 2005 in the understory deciduous forest of the southern Appalachian Mountains, North Carolina, USA. Results show that both the occurrence of P. biflorum and the prevalence of P. biflorum leaf spot disease are highest where soil moisture is intermediate and diffuse light is lowest. Disease occurrence depends upon plant presence, but it also adversely impacts plant survival, abundance, and growth. These results suggest that leaf spot disease is likely to impact population dynamics, which in turn vary as a function of environmental drivers

A framework for priority effects

History of species arrival can influence plant community assembly. In this issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science, Sarneel et al. show that the strength of such historical contingency, or priority effects, varies with soil moisture in riparian plants. We discuss this study within a theoretical framework describing how and when priority effects occur via destabilizing and equalizing mechanisms.History of species arrival can influence plant community assembly. In this issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science, Sarneel et al. show that the strength of such historical contingency, or priority effects, varies with soil moisture in riparian plants. We discuss this study within a theoretical framework describing how and when priority effects occur via destabilizing and equalizing mechanisms.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/122424/1/jvs12434.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/122424/2/jvs12434_am.pd

The problem of scale in the prediction and management of pathogen spillover

Disease emergence events, epidemics and pandemics all underscore the need to predict zoonotic pathogen spillover. Because cross-species transmission is inherently hierarchical, involving processes that occur at varying levels of biological organization, such predictive efforts can be complicated by the many scales and vastness of data potentially required for forecasting. A wide range of approaches are currently used to forecast spillover risk (e.g. macroecology, pathogen discovery, surveillance of human populations, among others), each of which is bound within particular phylogenetic, spatial and temporal scales of prediction. Here, we contextualize these diverse approaches within their forecasting goals and resulting scales of prediction to illustrate critical areas of conceptual and pragmatic overlap. Specifically, we focus on an ecological perspective to envision a research pipeline that connects these different scales of data and predictions from the aims of discovery to intervention. Pathogen discovery and predictions focused at the phylogenetic scale can first provide coarse and pattern-based guidance for which reservoirs, vectors and pathogens are likely to be involved in spillover, thereby narrowing surveillance targets and where such efforts should be conducted. Next, these predictions can be followed with ecologically driven spatio-temporal studies of reservoirs and vectors to quantify spatio-temporal fluctuations in infection and to mechanistically understand how pathogens circulate and are transmitted to humans. This approach can also help identify general regions and periods for which spillover is most likely. We illustrate this point by highlighting several case studies where long-term, ecologically focused studies (e.g. Lyme disease in the northeast USA, Hendra virus in eastern Australia, Plasmodium knowlesi in Southeast Asia) have facilitated predicting spillover in space and time and facilitated the design of possible intervention strategies. Such studies can in turn help narrow human surveillance efforts and help refine and improve future large-scale, phylogenetic predictions. We conclude by discussing how greater integration and exchange between data and predictions generated across these varying scales could ultimately help generate more actionable forecasts and interventions

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: A Bayesian approach

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases, like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number $R_0$. However, understanding the mechanisms linking $R_0$ and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of $R_0$ and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of $R_0$. Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15-25$^\circ$ C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially $\sim$25-32$^\circ$ C; mortality from 20-30$^\circ$ C; parasite development rate at $\sim$15-16$^\circ$C and again at $\sim$33-35$^\circ$C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of $R_0$. While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.Comment: 27 pages, including 1 table and 3 figure

Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control

Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover

No abstract available

Household and climate factors influence Aedes aegypti presence in the arid city of Huaquillas, Ecuador

Funding: This study was funded by NSF EEID DEB 1518681 to SJR, EAM, AMS. EAM was also supported by NIH R35GM133439, NSF DEB-2011147, the Terman Award, the Helman Faculty Fellowship, and the Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health.Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti (e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika) are of major public health concern on the arid coastal border of Ecuador and Peru. This high transit border is a critical disease surveillance site due to human movement-associated risk of transmission. Local level studies are thus integral to capturing the dynamics and distribution of vector populations and social-ecological drivers of risk, to inform targeted public health interventions. Our study examines factors associated with household-level Ae. aegypti presence in Huaquillas, Ecuador, while accounting for spatial and temporal effects. From January to May of 2017, adult mosquitoes were collected from a cohort of households (n = 63) in clusters (n = 10), across the city of Huaquillas, using aspirator backpacks. Household surveys describing housing conditions, demographics, economics, travel, disease prevention, and city services were conducted by local enumerators. This study was conducted during the normal arbovirus transmission season (January-May), but during an exceptionally dry year. Household level Ae. aegypti presence peaked in February, and counts were highest in weeks with high temperatures and a week after increased rainfall. Univariate analyses with proportional odds logistic regression were used to explore household social-ecological variables and female Ae. aegypti presence. We found that homes were more likely to have Ae. aegypti when households had interruptions in piped water service. Ae. aegypti presence was less likely in households with septic systems. Based on our findings, infrastructure access and seasonal climate are important considerations for vector control in this city, and even in dry years, the arid environment of Huaquillas supports Ae. aegypti breeding habitat.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics

Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.R35GM133439 - NIH HHS; DBI-1667584 - National Science Foundation; DEB-1655203 - National Science Foundation; 00028335 - Lenfest Foundation; Stanford University: Bing Fellowship in Honor of Paul Ehrlich, Stanford Data Science Scholars program, Lindsay Family E-IPER Fellowship, Illich-Sadowsky Interdisciplinary Graduate Fellowship, Terman Fellowship, King Center for Global Development seed grant; SERDP 15 RC-2509 - U.S. Department of Defense; University of California San Diego: McQuown Chair in Natural Sciences; DBI-1611767 - National Science Foundation; RAPID DEB-1640780 - National Science Foundation; R35GM133439 - NIH HHS; Hellman Foundation: Hellman Faculty Fellowship; Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment: Environmental Ventures Program; DEB-1518681 - National Science Foundation; R35 GM133439 - NIGMS NIH HHS; DEB-2011147 - National Science Foundationhttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2020/10/19/2019.12.20.883363.full.pdfAccepted manuscrip

Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Funding: J.M.C., A.D.L., E.F.L., and E.A.M. were supported by a Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment—Environmental Ventures Program grant (PIs: E.A.M., A.D.L., and E.F.L.). E.A.M. was also supported by a Hellman Faculty Fellowship and a Terman Award. A.D.L., B.A.N., F.M.M., E.N.G.S., M.S.S., A.R.K., R.D., A.A., and H.N.N. were supported by a National Institutes of Health R01 grant (AI102918; PI: A.D.L.). E.A.M., A.M.S.I., and S.J.R. were supported by a National Science Foundation (NSF) Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases (EEID) grant (DEB-1518681), and A.M.S.I. and S.J.R. were also supported by an NSF DEB RAPID grant (1641145). E.A.M. was also supported by a National Institute of General Medical Sciences Maximizing Investigators’ Research Award grant (R35GM133439) and an NSF and Fogarty International Center EEID grant (DEB-2011147).Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28-85% for vectors, 44-88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Soil Moisture and Fungi Affect Seed Survival in California Grassland Annual Plants

Survival of seeds in the seed bank is important for the population dynamics of many plant species, yet the environmental factors that control seed survival at a landscape level remain poorly understood. These factors may include soil moisture, vegetation cover, soil type, and soil pathogens. Because many soil fungi respond to moisture and host species, fungi may mediate environmental drivers of seed survival. Here, I measure patterns of seed survival in California annual grassland plants across 15 species in three experiments. First, I surveyed seed survival for eight species at 18 grasslands and coastal sage scrub sites ranging across coastal and inland Santa Barbara County, California. Species differed in seed survival, and soil moisture and geographic location had the strongest influence on survival. Grasslands had higher survival than coastal sage scrub sites for some species. Second, I used a fungicide addition and exotic grass thatch removal experiment in the field to tease apart the relative impact of fungi, thatch, and their interaction in an invaded grassland. Seed survival was lower in the winter (wet season) than in the summer (dry season), but fungicide improved winter survival. Seed survival varied between species but did not depend on thatch. Third, I manipulated water and fungicide in the laboratory to directly examine the relationship between water, fungi, and survival. Seed survival declined from dry to single watered to continuously watered treatments. Fungicide slightly improved seed survival when seeds were watered once but not continually. Together, these experiments demonstrate an important role of soil moisture, potentially mediated by fungal pathogens, in driving seed survival