Variation in host home range size decreases rabies vaccination effectiveness by increasing the spatial spread of rabies virus

Animal movement influences the spatial spread of directly transmitted wildlife disease through host-host contact structure. Wildlife disease hosts vary in home range- associated foraging and social behaviours, which may increase the spread and intensity of disease outbreaks. The consequences of variation in host home range movement and space use on wildlife disease dynamics are poorly understood, but could help to predict disease spread and determine more effective disease management strategies. We developed a spatially explicit individual-based model to examine the effect of spatiotemporal variation in host home range size on the spatial spread rate, persistence and incidence of rabies virus (RABV) in raccoons (Procyon lotor). We tested the hypothesis that variation in home range size increases RABV spread and decreases vaccination effectiveness in host populations following pathogen invasion into a vaccination zone. We simulated raccoon demography and RABV dynamics across a range of magnitudes and variances in weekly home range size for raccoons. We examined how variable home range size influenced the relative effectiveness of three components of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programmes targeting raccoons—timing and frequency of bait delivery, width of the ORV zone and proportion of hosts immunized. Variability in weekly home range size increased RABV spread rates by 1.2-fold to 5.2-fold compared to simulations that assumed a fixed home range size. More variable host home range sizes decreased relative vaccination effectiveness by 71% compared to less variable host home range sizes under conventional vaccination conditions. We found that vaccination timing was more influential for vaccination effectiveness than vaccination frequency or vaccination zone width. Our results suggest that variation in wildlife home range movement behaviour increases the spatial spread and incidence of RABV. Our vaccination results underscore the importance of prioritizing individual-level space use and movement data collection to understand wildlife disease dynamics and plan their effective control and elimination

Modeling Mongoose Rabies in the Caribbean: A Model-Guided Fieldwork Approach to Identify Research Priorities

We applied the model-guided fieldwork framework to the Caribbean mongoose rabies system by parametrizing a spatially-explicit, individual-based model, and by performing an uncertainty analysis designed to identify parameters for which additional empirical data are most needed. Our analysis revealed important variation in output variables characterizing rabies dynamics, namely rabies persistence, exposure level, spatiotemporal distribution, and prevalence. Among epidemiological parameters, rabies transmission rate was the most influential, followed by rabies mortality and location, and size of the initial infection. The most influential landscape parameters included habitat-specific carrying capacities, landscape heterogeneity, and the level of resistance to dispersal associated with topography. Movement variables, including juvenile dispersal, adult fine-scale movement distances, and home range size, as well as life history traits such as age of independence, birth seasonality, and age- and sex-specific mortality were other important drivers of rabies dynamics. We discuss results in the context of mongoose ecology and its influence on disease transmission dynamics. Finally, we suggest empirical approaches and study design specificities that would provide optimal contributing data addressing the knowledge gaps identified by our approach, and would increase our potential to use epidemiological models to guide mongoose rabies control and management in the Caribbean

The Impact of Bisphenol A and Triclosan on Immune Parameters in the U.S. Population, NHANES 2003–2006

Background: Exposure to environmental toxicants is associated with numerous disease outcomes, many of which involve underlying immune and inflammatory dysfunction. Objectives: To address the gap between environmental exposures and immune dysfunction, we investigated the association of two endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) with markers of immune function. Methods: Using data from the 2003–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we compared urinary bisphenol A (BPA) and triclosan levels with serum cytomegalovirus (CMV) antibody levels and diagnosis of allergies or hay fever in U.S. adults and children ≥ 6 years of age. We used multivariate ordinary least squares linear regression models to examine the association of BPA and triclosan with CMV antibody titers, and multivariate logistic regression models to investigate the association of these chemicals with allergy or hay fever diagnosis. Statistical models were stratified by age (\u3c 18 years and ≥ 18 years). Results: In analyses adjusted for age, sex, race, body mass index, creatinine levels, family income, and educational attainment, in the ≥ 18-year age group, higher urinary BPA levels were associated with higher CMV antibody titers (p \u3c 0.001). In the \u3c 18-year age group, lower levels of BPA were associated with higher CMV antibody titers (p \u3c 0.05). However, triclosan, but not BPA, showed a positive association with allergy or hay fever diagnosis. In the \u3c 18-year age group, higher levels of triclosan were associated with greater odds of having been diagnosed with allergies or hay fever (p \u3c 0.01). Conclusions: EDCs such as BPA and triclosan may negatively affect human immune function as measured by CMV antibody levels and allergy or hay fever diagnosis, respectively, with differential consequences based on age. Additional studies should be done to investigate these findings

Sea lice infestations on juvenile chum and pink salmon in the Broughton Archipelago, Canada, from 2003 to 2012

Juvenile pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha and chum salmon O. keta were sampled by beach or purse seine to assess levels of sea lice infestation in the Knight Inlet and Broughton Archipelago regions of coastal British Columbia, Canada, during the months of March to July from 2003 to 2012. Beach seine data were analyzed for sea lice infestation that was de - scribed in terms of prevalence, abundance, intensity, and intensity per unit length. The median annual prevalence for chum was 30%, ranging from 14% (in 2008 and 2009) to 73% (in 2004), while for pink salmon, the median was 27% and ranged from 10% (in 2011) to 68% (in 2004). Annual abundance varied from 0.2 to 5 sea lice per fish with a median of 0.47 for chum and from 0.1 to 3 lice (median 0.42) for pink salmon. Annual infestation followed broadly similar trends for both chum and pink salmon. However, the abundance and intensity of Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi, the 2 main sea lice species of interest, were significantly greater on chum than on pink salmon in around half of the years studied. Logistic regression with random effect was used to model prevalence of sea lice infestation for the combined beach and purse seine data. The model suggested inter-annual variation as well as a spatial clustering effect on the prevalence of sea lice infestation in both chum and pink salmon. Fish length had an effect on prevalence, although the nature of this effect differed according to host species

Forecasting the spread of raccoon rabies using a purpose-specific group decisionmaking process

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and USDA Wildlife Services (WS) have been involved in an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program for raccoons (Procyon lotor) that has slowed the westward spread of raccoon rabies. The objective of this study was to forecast the spread of the disease if an ORV zone was not maintained. A group decision-making process was designed to address the forecasting problem and was implemented using a group of 15 experts and 4 support personnel at a meeting at the USDA National Wildlife Research Center. Ten expansion regions were constructed that described the spread of disease at 2-year intervals. This forecast may provide for more accurate cost-benefit analysis of the ORV barrier

Observations and Theoretical Implications of the Large Separation Lensed Quasar SDSS J1004+4112

We study the recently discovered gravitational lens SDSS J1004+4112, the first quasar lensed by a cluster of galaxies. It consists of four images with a maximum separation of 14.62''. The system has been confirmed as a lensed quasar at z=1.734 on the basis of deep imaging and spectroscopic follow-up observations. We present color-magnitude relations for galaxies near the lens plus spectroscopy of three central cluster members, which unambiguously confirm that a cluster at z=0.68 is responsible for the large image separation. We find a wide range of lens models consistent with the data, but they suggest four general conclusions: (1) the brightest cluster galaxy and the center of the cluster potential well appear to be offset by several kpc; (2) the cluster mass distribution must be elongated in the North--South direction, which is consistent with the observed distribution of cluster galaxies; (3) the inference of a large tidal shear (~0.2) suggests significant substructure in the cluster; and (4) enormous uncertainty in the predicted time delays between the images means that measuring the delays would greatly improve constraints on the models. We also compute the probability of such large separation lensing in the SDSS quasar sample, on the basis of the CDM model. The lack of large separation lenses in previous surveys and the discovery of one in SDSS together imply a mass fluctuation normalization \sigma_8=1.0^{+0.4}_{-0.2} (95% CL), if cluster dark matter halos have an inner slope -1.5. Shallower profiles would require higher values of \sigma_8. Although the statistical conclusion might be somewhat dependent on the degree of the complexity of the lens potential, the discovery is consistent with the predictions of the abundance of cluster-scale halos in the CDM scenario. (Abridged)Comment: 21 pages, 24 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Prospective Association of Daily Steps with Cardiovascular Disease: A Harmonized Meta-Analysis

Background: Taking fewer than the widely promoted “10 000 steps per day” has recently been associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. The relationship of steps and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains poorly described. A meta-analysis examining the dose–response relationship between steps per day and CVD can help inform clinical and public health guidelines. Methods: Eight prospective studies (20 152 adults [ie, ≥18 years of age]) were included with device-measured steps and participants followed for CVD events. Studies quantified steps per day and CVD events were defined as fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were completed using study-specific quartiles and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI were meta-analyzed with inverse-variance–weighted random effects models. Results: The mean age of participants was 63.2±12.4 years and 52% were women. The mean follow-up was 6.2 years (123 209 person-years), with a total of 1523 CVD events (12.4 per 1000 participant-years) reported. There was a significant difference in the association of steps per day and CVD between older (ie, ≥60 years of age) and younger adults (ie, <60 years of age). For older adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.93), 0.62 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.74), and 0.51 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.63) compared with the lowest quartile. For younger adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.46 to 1.35), 0.90 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.64 to 1.25), and 0.95 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.61 to 1.48) compared with the lowest quartile. Restricted cubic splines demonstrated a nonlinear association whereby more steps were associated with decreased risk of CVD among older adults. Conclusions: For older adults, taking more daily steps was associated with a progressively decreased risk of CVD. Monitoring and promoting steps per day is a simple metric for clinician–patient communication and population health to reduce the risk of CVD

Daily steps and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of 15 international cohorts

Background Although 10000 steps per day is widely promoted to have health benefits, there is little evidence to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the association between number of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. Methods In this meta-analysis, we identified studies investigating the effect of daily step count on all-cause mortality in adults (aged ≥18 years), via a previously published systematic review and expert knowledge of the field. We asked participating study investigators to process their participant-level data following a standardised protocol. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality collected from death certificates and country registries. We analysed the dose– response association of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. We did Cox proportional hazards regression analyses using study-specific quartiles of steps per day and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) with inversevariance weighted random effects models. Findings We identified 15 studies, of which seven were published and eight were unpublished, with study start dates between 1999 and 2018. The total sample included 47 471 adults, among whom there were 3013 deaths (10·1 per 1000 participant-years) over a median follow-up of 7·1 years ([IQR 4·3–9·9]; total sum of follow-up across studies was 297 837 person-years). Quartile median steps per day were 3553 for quartile 1, 5801 for quartile 2, 7842 for quartile 3, and 10 901 for quartile 4. Compared with the lowest quartile, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0·60 (95% CI 0·51–0·71) for quartile 2, 0·55 (0·49–0·62) for quartile 3, and 0·47 (0·39–0·57) for quartile 4. Restricted cubic splines showed progressively decreasing risk of mortality among adults aged 60 years and older with increasing number of steps per day until 6000–8000 steps per day and among adults younger than 60 years until 8000–10000 steps per day. Adjusting for number of steps per day, comparing quartile 1 with quartile 4, the association between higher stepping rates and mortality was attenuated but remained significant for a peak of 30 min (HR 0·67 [95% CI 0·56–0·83]) and a peak of 60 min (0·67 [0·50–0·90]), but not significant for time (min per day) spent walking at 40 steps per min or faster (1·12 [0·96–1·32]) and 100 steps per min or faster (0·86 [0·58–1·28]). Interpretation Taking more steps per day was associated with a progressively lower risk of all-cause mortality, up to a level that varied by age. The findings from this meta-analysis can be used to inform step guidelines for public health promotion of physical activity

De Novo Mutations in SLC1A2 and CACNA1A Are Important Causes of Epileptic Encephalopathies

Epileptic encephalopathies (EEs) are the most clinically important group of severe early-onset epilepsies. Next-generation sequencing has highlighted the crucial contribution of de novo mutations to the genetic architecture of EEs as well as to their underlying genetic heterogeneity. Our previous whole-exome sequencing study of 264 parent-child trios revealed more than 290 candidate genes in which only a single individual had a de novo variant. We sought to identify additional pathogenic variants in a subset (n = 27) of these genes via targeted sequencing in an unsolved cohort of 531 individuals with a diverse range of EEs. We report 17 individuals with pathogenic variants in seven of the 27 genes, defining a genetic etiology in 3.2% of this unsolved cohort. Our results provide definitive evidence that de novo mutations in SLC1A2 and CACNA1A cause specific EEs and expand the compendium of clinically relevant genotypes for GABRB3. We also identified EEs caused by genetic variants in ALG13, DNM1, and GNAO1 and report a mutation in IQSEC2. Notably, recurrent mutations accounted for 7/17 of the pathogenic variants identified. As a result of high-depth coverage, parental mosaicism was identified in two out of 14 cases tested with mutant allelic fractions of 5%–6% in the unaffected parents, carrying significant reproductive counseling implications. These results confirm that dysregulation in diverse cellular neuronal pathways causes EEs, and they will inform the diagnosis and management of individuals with these devastating disorders