Forecast dataset associated with “From Random Forests to Flood Forecasts: A Research to Operations Success Story”

Gridded forecasts from the Colorado State University-Machine Learning Probabilities (CSU-MLP) system for excessive rainfall prediction over the continental United States. The dataset includes probabilistic forecasts for days 1, 2, and 3 from the 2017, 2019, and 2020 versions of the CSU-MLP forecast system. For the day 2 and 3 forecasts, daily forecasts are included from 19 June 2018 through 15 October 2020; for day-1 forecasts a period from 15 March 2019 through 15 October 2020 is used.Because excessive rainfall is poorly defined and difficult to forecast, there is a need for tools for Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecasters to use when generating Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (EROs), which are issued for the contiguous United States at lead times of 1--3 days. To address this need, a probabilistic forecast system for excessive rainfall, known as the Colorado State University-Machine Learning Probabilities (CSU-MLP) system, was developed based on ensemble reforecasts, precipitation observations, and machine learning algorithms, specifically random forests. The CSU-MLP forecasts were designed to emulate the EROs, with the goal being a tool that forecasters can use as a ``first guess'' in the ERO forecast process. Resulting from close collaboration between CSU and WPC and evaluation at the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall experiment, iterative improvements were made to the forecast system and it was transitioned into operational use at WPC. Quantitative evaluation shows that the CSU-MLP forecasts are skillful and reliable, and they are now being used as a part of the WPC forecast process. This project represents an example of a successful research-to-operations transition, and highlights the potential for machine learning and other post-processing techniques to improve operational predictions.This research and operational transition was supported by NOAA Joint Technology Transfer Initiative grants NA16OAR4590238 and NA18OAR4590378

Developmental dysplasia of the hip: Linkage mapping and whole exome sequencing identify a shared variant in CX3CR1 in all affected members of a large multi-generation family.

Developmental Dysplasia of the Hip (DDH) is a debilitating condition characterized by incomplete formation of the acetabulum leading to dislocation of the femur, suboptimal joint function, and accelerated wear of the articular cartilage resulting in arthritis. DDH affects 1 in 1000 newborns in the United States with well defined pockets of high prevalence in Japan, Italy and other Mediterranean countries. Although reasonably accurate for detecting gross forms of hip dysplasia, existing techniques fail to find milder forms of dysplasia. Undetected hip dysplasia is the leading cause of osteoarthritis of the hip in young individuals causing over 40% of cases in this age group. A sensitive and specific test for DDH has remained a desirable yet elusive goal in orthopaedics for a long time. A 72 member, four generation affected family has been recruited, and DNA from its members retrieved. Genome-wide linkage analysis revealed a 2.61 Mb candidate region (38.7-41.31 Mb from the p term of chromosome 3) co-inherited by all affected members with a maximum LOD score of 3.31. Whole exome sequencing and analysis of this candidate region in four severely affected family members revealed one shared variant, rs3732378, that causes a threonine (polar) to methionine (non-polar) alteration at position 280 in the trans-membrane domain of CX3CR1. This mutation is predicted to have a deleterious effect on its encoded protein which functions as a receptor for the ligand fractalkine. By Sanger sequencing this variant was found to be present in the DNA of all affected individuals and obligate heterozygotes. CX3CR1 mediates cellular adhesive and migratory functions and is known to be expressed in mesenchymal stem cells destined to become chondrocytes. A genetic risk factor that might to be among the etiologic factors for the family in this study has been identified, along with other possible aggravating mutations shared by 4 severely affected family members. These findings might illuminate the molecular pathways affecting chondrocyte maturation and bone formation

Biochar Supplementation in Growing and Finishing Diets

Two metabolism studies were conducted to evaluate the effects of biochar (0, 0.8, or 3% of diet dry matter) on digestibility and methane production in growing and finishing diets. Intake was not affected by biochar inclusion in the growing diet and increased with 0.8% biochar inclusion in the finishing study. Digestibility tended to increase quadratically with biochar inclusion in the growing study while digestibility tended to linearly decrease with biochar inclusion in the finishing study. Methane production (g/d) decreased 10.7% in the growing study and 9.9% in the finishing study with 0.8% biochar compared to no biochar. Methane production was reduced 10.6% and 18.4% in the growing and finishing studies, respectively, when measured as g/lb of intake. Although biochar is not FDA approved for animal feeding, the initial research shows potential as a methane mitigation strategy in both growing and finishing diets

Spanning Boundaries in an Arizona Watershed Partnership: Information Networks as Tools for Entrenchment or Ties for Collaboration?

The need to develop successful collaborative strategies is an enduring problem in sustainable resource management. Our goal is to evaluate the relationship between information networks and conflict in the context of collaborative groundwater management in the rapidly growing central highland region of Arizona. In this region, water-management conflicts have emerged because of stakeholders’ differing geographic perspectives and competing scientific claims. Using social network analyses, we explored the extent to which the Verde River Basin Partnership (VRBP), which was charged with developing and sharing scientific information, has contributed to collaboration in the region. To accomplish this, we examined the role that this stakeholder partnership plays in reinforcing or overcoming the geographic, ideological, expert, and power conflicts among its members. Focusing on information sharing, we tested the extent to which several theoretically important elements of successful collaboration were evidenced by data from the VRBP. The structure of information sharing provides insight into ways in which barriers between diverse perspectives might be retained and elucidates weaknesses in the partnership. To characterize information sharing, we examined interaction ties among individuals with different geographic concerns, hierarchical scales of interest, belief systems (about science, the environment, and the role of the partnership), and self-identified expertise types. Results showed that the partnership’s information-sharing network spans most of these boundaries. Based on current theories of collaboration, we would expect the partnership network to be conducive to collaboration. We found that information exchanges are limited by differences in connection patterns across actor expertise and environmental-belief systems. Actors who view scientists as advocates are significantly more likely to occupy boundary-spanning positions, that appear to impede the success of the partnership. This analysis challenges widely held assumptions about the properties that separate successful collaborations from those that are less successful. It has implications for our understanding of the factors that constrain information processing, knowledge production, and collective-action capability in institutions

Phase Heritage: Deciphering Evidence of Pre-Existing Phases via Inherited Crystallographic Orientations

The concept of 'phase heritage' (e.g., Timms et al., 2017a) involves microstructural recognition of the former presence of a phase that has since transformed to another via evidence encoded in crystallographic orientations. Phase heritage relies on the phenomenon that newly grown (daughter) phases nucleate with particular crystallographic orientation relationships with the preceding (parent) phase. This phenomenon is common for displacive (i.e., shear or martensitic) transformations, well documented in the metals and ceramics literature, but is relatively uncommon in geosciences. This presentation outlines the concepts behind this approach, showcases results from software for automated analysis of EBSD data, and illustrates examples of polymorphic and dissociation phase transformations in the ZrSiO4-ZrO2-SiO2 system, which has particularly useful applications for 'extreme thermobarometry' in impact environments (Timms et al., 2017a)

Effect of Distillers Grains Composition and Level on Steers Consuming High-Quality Forage

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of dried distillers grains (DDG) supplementation level and composition on growing steer performance and forage intake. Factors included DDG supplementation level (0.25, 0.50, 0.75 or 1.00% of BW), and DDG solubles level (0, 5.4, 14.5, 19.1, or 22.1% DM). Final BW improved, and forage intake decreased with increasing levels of DDG. An interaction between DDG supplementation level and solubles level was observed on ADG and F:G and was likely related to supplemental fat levels. Supplementation of forages with DDG improves performance while decreasing forage intake when fat levels are not too great

Hostility Modifies the Association between TV Viewing and Cardiometabolic Risk

Background. It was hypothesized that television viewing is predictive of cardiometabolic risk. Moreover, people with hostile personality type may be more susceptible to TV-induced negative emotions and harmful health habits which increase occurrence of cardiometabolic risk. Purpose. The prospective association of TV viewing on cardiometabolic risk was examined along with whether hostile personality trait was a modifier. Methods. A total of 3,269 Black and White participants in the coronary artery risk development in young adults (CARDIA) study were assessed from age 23 to age 35. A cross-lagged panel model at exam years 5, 10, 15, and 20, covering 15 years, was used to test whether hours of daily TV viewing predicted cardiometabolic risk, controlling confounding variables. Multiple group analysis of additional cross-lagged panel models stratified by high and low levels of hostility was used to evaluate whether the association was modified by the hostile personality trait. Results. The cross-lagged association of TV viewing at years 5 and 15 on clustered cardiometabolic risk score at years 10 and 20 was significant (B=0.058 and 0.051), but not at 10 to 15 years. This association was significant for those with high hostility (B=0.068 for exam years 5 to 10 and 0.057 for exam years 15 to 20) but not low hostility. Conclusion. These findings indicate that TV viewing is positively associated with cardiometabolic risk. Further, they indicate that hostility might be a modifier for the association between TV viewing and cardiometabolic risk

A new view of k-essence

K-essence models, relying on scalar fields with non-canonical kinetic terms, have been proposed as an alternative to quintessence in explaining the observed acceleration of the Universe. We consider the use of field redefinitions to cast k-essence in a more familiar form. While k-essence models cannot in general be rewritten in the form of quintessence models, we show that in certain dynamical regimes an equivalence can be made, which in particular can shed light on the tracking behaviour of k-essence. In several cases, k-essence cannot be observationally distinguished from quintessence using the homogeneous evolution, though there may be small effects on the perturbation spectrum. We make a detailed analysis of two k-essence models from the literature and comment on the nature of the fine tuning arising in the models.Comment: 7 pages RevTeX4 file with four figures incorporate

Incorporating metapopulation Dynamics to Inform Invasive Species Management: Evaluating Bighead and Silver Carp Control Strategies in the Illinois River

1. Invasive species management can benefit from predictive models that incorporate spatially explicit demographics and dispersal to guide resource allocation decisions. 2. We used invasive bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in the Illinois River, USA as a case study to create a spatially explicit model to evaluate the allocation of future management efforts. Specifically, we compared additional harvest (e.g. near the invasion front vs. source populations) and enhanced movement deterrents to meet the management goal of reducing abundance at the invasion front. 3. We found additional harvest in lower river pools (i.e. targeting source populations) more effectively limited population sizes upriver at the invasion front compared to allocating the same harvest levels near the invasion front. Likewise, decreasing passage (i.e. lock and dam structures) at the farthest, feasible downriver location limited invasion front population size more than placing movement deterrents farther upriver. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the benefits of adopting a multipronged approach for invasive species management, combining suppression of source populations with disrupting movement between source and sink populations thereby producing compounding benefits for control. Our results also demonstrate the importance of considering metapopulation dynamics for invasive species control programs when achieving long-term management goals