Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models

Objective. Uncertainty analysis (UA) is an important part of simulation model validation. However, literature is imprecise as to how UA should be performed in the context of population-based microsimulation (PMS) models. In this expository paper, we discuss a practical approach to UA for such models. Methods. By adapting common concepts from published UA guidelines, we developed a comprehensive, step-by-step approach to UA in PMS models, including sample size calculation to reduce the computational time. As an illustration, we performed UA for POHEM-OA, a microsimulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada. Results. The resulting sample size of the simulated population was 500,000 and the number of Monte Carlo (MC) runs was 785 for 12-hour computational time. The estimated 95% uncertainty intervals for the prevalence of OA in Canada in 2021 were 0.09 to 0.18 for men and 0.15 to 0.23 for women. The uncertainty surrounding the sex-specific prevalence of OA increased over time. Conclusion. The proposed approach to UA considers the challenges specific to PMS models, such as selection of parameters and calculation of MC runs and population size to reduce computational burden. Our example of UA shows that the proposed approach is feasible. Estimation of uncertainty intervals should become a standard practice in the reporting of results from PMS models

The Effect of Disease Site (Knee, Hip, Hand, Foot, Lower Back or Neck) on Employment Reduction Due to Osteoarthritis

Osteoarthritis (OA) has a significant impact on individuals' ability to work. Our goal was to investigate the effects of the site of OA (knee, hip, hand, foot, lower back or neck) on employment reduction due to OA (EROA).This study involved a random sample of 6,000 patients with OA selected from the Medical Service Plan database in British Columbia, Canada. A total of 5,491 were alive and had valid addresses, and of these, 2,259 responded (response rate = 41%), from which 2,134 provided usable data. Eligible participants were 19 or older with physician diagnosed OA based on administrative data between 1992 and 2006. Data of 688 residents were used (mean age 62.1 years (27 to 86); 60% women). EROA had three levels: no reduction; reduced hours; and total cessation due to OA. The (log) odds of EROA was regressed on OA sites, adjusting for age, sex, education and comorbidity. Odds ratios (ORs) represented the effect predicting total cessation and reduced hours/total cessation. The strongest effect was found in lower back OA, with OR = 2.08 (95% CI: 1.47, 2.94), followed by neck (OR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.11, 2.27) and knee (OR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.02, 2.01). We found an interaction between sex and foot OA (men: OR = 1.94; 95% CI: 1.05, 3.59; women: OR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.57, 1.39). No significant effect was found for hip OA (OR = 1.33) or hand OA (OR = 1.11). Limitations of this study included a modest response rate, the lack of an OA negative group, the use of administrative databases to identify eligible participants, and the use of patient self-reported data.After adjusting for socio-demographic variables, comorbidity, and other OA disease sites, we find that OA of the lower back, neck and knee are significant predictors for EROA. Foot OA is only significantly associated with EROA in males. For multi-site combinations, ORs are multiplicative. These findings may be used to guide resource allocation for future development/improvement of vocational rehabilitation programs for site-specific OA

When does the increased mortality risk appear in rheumatoid arthritis? A distributed data analysis comparing mortality in two Canadian provinces

Introduction Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is chronic inflammatory arthritis. For decades studies showed that RA patients died earlier than their general population counterparts. Some inception cohorts have failed to detect an increased mortality risk, possibly due to limited follow-up or to improvement in mortality risk in cohorts of more recent onset. Objectives and Approach We evaluated mortality risk in RA patients and estimated when the increased risk appears. Using a common protocol, we conducted distributed analyses using administrative data, of incident RA patients in British Columbia (BC) and Ontario (ON) over 2000-2015. We identified all RA patients (using validated criteria), and identified non-RA comparators, matched 1:2 on age, sex and index years. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression, controlling for comorbidities and other factors. To estimate when the increased risk appeared we included an interaction with follow-up time, to detect if and how the HR varied by RA duration. Results Among 13834 RA patients in BC (27668 comparators), 66% were female with a mean age of 58 years at cohort entry. Among 27405 RA patients in ON (54810 comparators), 70% were female with a mean age of 56 years. The prevalence of individual comorbidities was comparable across RA cohorts. During follow-up, 23% of RA patients in each province died, with corresponding crude mortality rates of 2.3 deaths per 100 person-years in both provinces. Multivariable analyses detected an increased mortality risk in RA by 6 years of follow-up, with a linear relationship suggesting further increase over time. By 10 years, the adjusted HR was 1.14 (95% CI 1.07,1.22) in BC and 1.13 (95% CI 1.08,1.18) in ON. Conclusion/Implications In 2 large Canadian RA inception cohorts, a small increased mortality risk appeared after 6 years of RA duration and increased to a 14% (in BC) and 13% (in ON) increased mortality risk after 10 years, suggesting increased efforts to prevent disease progression and optimizing comorbidity management are needed

Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods

Abstract Background Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models. Methods We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of published model validation guidelines. Based on the review, we formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. Results Evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the performance of a model, and 3) the quality of decisions based on the model. Many important issues in model validation are insufficiently addressed by current guidelines. These issues include a detailed evaluation of different data sources, graphical representation of models, computer programming, model calibration, between-model comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and predictive validity. The role of external data in model validation depends on the purpose of the model (e.g., decision analysis versus prediction). More research is needed on the methods of comparing the quality of decisions based on different models. Conclusion As the role of simulation modeling in population health is increasing and models are becoming more complex, there is a need for further improvements in model validation methodology and common standards for evaluating model credibility

Occurrence of Radiographic Osteoarthritis of the Knee and Hip Among African Americans and Whites: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

To compare the incidence and progression of radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) in the knee and hip among African Americans and whites

Биофизика зрительной сенсорной системы человека

Зрительная сенсорная система – это система, которая воспринимает излучение видимого спектра, после чего формируется изображение предметов окружающей среды в виде определенных ощущений (сенсорных чувств)

Canadian physiotherapists' views on certification, specialisation, extended role practice, and entry-level training in rheumatology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since the last decade there has been a gradual change of boundaries of health professions in providing arthritis care. In Canada, some facilities have begun to adopt new arthritis care models, some of which involve physiotherapists (PT) working in extended roles. However, little is known about PTs' interests in these new roles. The primary objective of this survey was to determine the interests among orthopaedic physiotherapists (PTs) in being a certified arthritis therapist, a PT specialized in arthritis, or an extended scope practitioner in rheumatology, and to explore the associated factors, including the coverage of arthritis content in the entry-level physiotherapy training.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Six hundred PTs practicing in orthopaedics in Canada were randomly selected to receive a postal survey. The questionnaire covered areas related to clinical practice, perceptions of rheumatology training received, and attitudes toward PT roles in arthritis care. Logistic regression models were developed to explore the associations between PTs' interests in pursuing each of the three extended scope practice designations and the personal/professional/attitudinal variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We received 286 questionnaires (response rate = 47.7%); 258 contained usable data. The average length of time in practice was 15.4 years (SD = 10.4). About 1 in 4 PTs agreed that they were interested in assuming advanced practice roles (being a certified arthritis therapist = 28.9%, being a PT specialized in rheumatology = 23.3%, being a PT practitioner = 20.9%). Having a caseload of ≥ 40% in arthritis, having a positive attitude toward advanced practice roles in arthritis care and toward the formal credentialing process, and recognizing the difference between certification and specialisation were associated with an interest in pursing advanced practice roles.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Orthopaedic PTs in Canada indicated a fair level of interest in pursuing certification, specialisation and extended scope practice roles in arthritis care. Future research should focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the emerging health service delivery models involving certified, specialized or extended scope practice PTs in the management of arthritis.</p

The \u3cem\u3eChlamydomonas\u3c/em\u3e Genome Reveals the Evolution of Key Animal and Plant Functions

Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is a unicellular green alga whose lineage diverged from land plants over 1 billion years ago. It is a model system for studying chloroplast-based photosynthesis, as well as the structure, assembly, and function of eukaryotic flagella (cilia), which were inherited from the common ancestor of plants and animals, but lost in land plants. We sequenced the ∼120-megabase nuclear genome of Chlamydomonas and performed comparative phylogenomic analyses, identifying genes encoding uncharacterized proteins that are likely associated with the function and biogenesis of chloroplasts or eukaryotic flagella. Analyses of the Chlamydomonas genome advance our understanding of the ancestral eukaryotic cell, reveal previously unknown genes associated with photosynthetic and flagellar functions, and establish links between ciliopathy and the composition and function of flagella

Genome-Wide Modeling of Transcription Preinitiation Complex Disassembly Mechanisms using ChIP-chip Data

Apparent occupancy levels of proteins bound to DNA in vivo can now be routinely measured on a genomic scale. A challenge in relating these occupancy levels to assembly mechanisms that are defined with biochemically isolated components lies in the veracity of assumptions made regarding the in vivo system. Assumptions regarding behavior of molecules in vivo can neither be proven true nor false, and thus is necessarily subjective. Nevertheless, within those confines, connecting in vivo protein-DNA interaction observations with defined biochemical mechanisms is an important step towards fully defining and understanding assembly/disassembly mechanisms in vivo. To this end, we have developed a computational program PathCom that models in vivo protein-DNA occupancy data as biochemical mechanisms under the assumption that occupancy levels can be related to binding duration and explicitly defined assembly/disassembly reactions. We exemplify the process with the assembly of the general transcription factors (TBP, TFIIB, TFIIE, TFIIF, TFIIH, and RNA polymerase II) at the genes of the budding yeast Saccharomyces. Within the assumption inherent in the system our modeling suggests that TBP occupancy at promoters is rather transient compared to other general factors, despite the importance of TBP in nucleating assembly of the preinitiation complex. PathCom is suitable for modeling any assembly/disassembly pathway, given that all the proteins (or species) come together to form a complex

Inhibitor-bound complexes of dihydrofolate reductase-thymidylate synthase from Babesia bovis

Structural characterization of the bifunctional enzyme dihydrofolate reductase-thymidylate synthase from B. bovis in the apo state and complexed with antifolate inhibitors in both enzymatic active sites is reported