A review of analogue and numerical modelling in volcanology

Abstract. Modelling has been used in the study of volcanic systems for more than one hundred years, building upon the approach first described by Sir James Hall in 1815. Informed by observations of volcanological phenomenon in nature, including eye-witness accounts of eruptions, geophysical or geodetic monitoring of active volcanoes and geological analysis of ancient deposits, analogue and numerical models have been used to describe and quantify volcanic and magmatic processes that span orders of magnitudes of time and space. We review the use of analogue and numerical modelling in volcanological research, focusing on sub-surface and eruptive processes including the accretion and evolution of magma chambers, the propagation of sheet intrusions, the development of volcanic flows (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and lahars), volcanic plume formation and ash dispersal. When first introduced into volcanology, analogue experiments and numerical simulations marked a transition in approach from broadly qualitative to increasingly quantitative research. These methods are now widely used in volcanology to describe the physical and chemical behaviours that govern volcanic and magmatic systems. Creating simplified depictions of highly dynamical systems enables volcanologists to simulate and potentially predict the nature and impact of future eruptions. These tools have provided significant insights into many aspects of the volcanic plumbing system and eruptive processes. The largest scientific advances in volcanology have come from a multidisciplinary approach, applying developments in diverse fields such as Engineering and Computer Science to study magmatic and volcanic phenomenon. A global effort in the integration of analogue and numerical volcano modelling is now required to tackle key problems in volcanology, and points towards the importance of benchmarking exercises and the need for protocols to be developed so that models are routinely tested against real world data. </jats:p

Investigating Source Conditions and Controlling Parameters of Explosive Eruptions: Some Experimental-Observational- Modelling Case Studies

Explosive volcanic eruptions are complex systems that can generate a variety of hazardous phenomena, for example, the injection of volcanic ash into the atmosphere or the generation of pyroclastic density currents. Explosive eruptions occur when a turbulent multiphase mixture, initially predominantly composedf of fragmented magma and gases, is injected from the volcanic vent into the atmosphere. For plume modelling purposes, a specific volcanic eruption scenario based on eruption type, style or magnitude is strictly linked to magmatic and vent conditions, despite the subsequent evolution of the plume being influenced by the interaction of the erupted material with the atmosphere. In this chapter, different methodologies for investigating eruptive source conditions and the subsequent evolution of the eruptive plumes are presented. The methodologies range from observational techniques to large-scale experiments and numerical models. Results confirm the relevance of measuring and observing source conditions, as such studies can improve predictions of the hazards of eruptive columns. The results also demonstrate the need for fundamental future research specifically tailored to answer some of the still open questions: the effect of unsteady flow conditions at the source on the eruptive column dynamics and the interaction between a convective plume and wind

A review of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanology

Modelling has been used in the study of volcanic systems for more than 100 years, building upon the approach first applied by Sir James Hall in 1815. Informed by observations of volcanological phenomena in nature, including eye-witness accounts of eruptions, geophysical or geodetic monitoring of active volcanoes, and geological analysis of ancient deposits, laboratory and numerical models have been used to describe and quantify volcanic and magmatic processes that span orders of magnitudes of time and space. We review the use of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanological research, focussing on sub-surface and eruptive processes including the accretion and evolution of magma chambers, the propagation of sheet intrusions, the development of volcanic flows (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars), volcanic plume formation, and ash dispersal. When first introduced into volcanology, laboratory experiments and numerical simulations marked a transition in approach from broadly qualitative to increasingly quantitative research. These methods are now widely used in volcanology to describe the physical and chemical behaviours that govern volcanic and magmatic systems. Creating simplified models of highly dynamical systems enables volcanologists to simulate and potentially predict the nature and impact of future eruptions. These tools have provided significant insights into many aspects of the volcanic plumbing system and eruptive processes. The largest scientific advances in volcanology have come from a multidisciplinary approach, applying developments in diverse fields such as engineering and computer science to study magmatic and volcanic phenomena. A global effort in the integration of laboratory and numerical volcano modelling is now required to tackle key problems in volcanology and points towards the importance of benchmarking exercises and the need for protocols to be developed so that models are routinely tested against "real world" data

Modelling the transport and deposition of ash following a magnitude 7 eruption: the distal Mazama tephra

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDMs) are necessary for forecasting tephra dispersal during volcanic eruptions and are a useful tool for estimating the eruption source parameters (ESPs) of prehistoric eruptions. Here we use Ash3D, an Eulerian VATDM, to simulate the tephra deposition from the ~ 7.7 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama. We investigate how best to apply a VATDM using the ESPs characteristic of a large magnitude eruption (M ≥ 7). We simplify the approach to focus on the distal deposit as if it were formed by a single phase of Plinian activity. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to use modern wind profiles to simulate the tephra dispersal from a prehistoric eruption; however, this introduces an inherent uncertainty to the subsequent simulations where we explore different ESPs. We show, using the well-documented distal Mazama tephra, that lateral umbrella cloud spreading, rather than advection–diffusion alone, must be included in the VATDM to reproduce the width of the isopachs. In addition, the Ash3D particle size distribution must be modified to simulate the transport and deposition of distal fine-grained (< 125 µm) Mazama ash. With these modifications, the Ash3D simulations reproduce the thickness and grain size of the Mazama tephra deposit. Based on our simulations, however, we conclude that the exact relationship between mass eruption rate and the scale of umbrella cloud spreading remains unresolved. Furthermore, for ground-based grain size distributions to be input directly into Ash3D, further research is required into the atmospheric and particle processes that control the settling behaviour of fine volcanic ash

Mapping recent shoreline changes spanning the lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau Volcano, Indonesia

We use satellite imagery to investigate the shoreline changes associated with volcanic activity in 2018–2019 at Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, spanning a major lateral collapse and period of regrowth through explosive activity. The shoreline changes have been analyzed and validated through the adaptation of an existing methodology based on Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery and developed on Google Earth Engine. This work tests the results of this method in a highly dynamic volcanic environment and validates them with manually digitized shorelines. The analysis shows that the size of the Anak Krakatau Island increased from 2.84 km2 to 3.19 km2 during 15 May 2018–1 November 2019 despite the loss of area in the 22 December 2018 lateral collapse. The lateral collapse reduced the island area to ~1.5 km2 but this was followed by a rapid increase in area in the first two months of 2019, reaching up to 3.27 km2. This was followed by a period of little change as volcanic activity declined and then by a net decrease from May 2019 to 1 November 2019 that resulted from erosion on the SW side of the island. This history of post-collapse eruptive regrowth and coastal erosion derived from the shoreline changes illuminates the potential for satellite-based automated shoreline mapping to provide databases for monitoring remote island volcanoes

New insights into the relationship between mass eruption rate and volcanic column height based on the IVESPA data set

Rapid and simple estimation of the mass eruption rate (MER) from column height is essential for real-time volcanic hazard management and reconstruction of past explosive eruptions. Using 134 eruptive events from the new Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, v1.0), we explore empirical MER-height relationships for four measures of column height: spreading level, sulfur dioxide height, and top height from direct observations and as reconstructed from deposits. These relationships show significant differences and highlight limitations of empirical models currently used in operational and research applications. The roles of atmospheric stratification, wind, and humidity remain challenging to detect across the wide range of eruptive conditions spanned in IVESPA, ultimately resulting in empirical relationships outperforming analytical models that account for atmospheric conditions. This finding highlights challenges in constraining the MER-height relation using heterogeneous observations and empirical models, which reinforces the need for improved eruption source parameter data sets and physics-based models

Modelling of the tsunami from the December 22, 2018 lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Straits, Indonesia

On Dec. 22, 2018, at approximately 20:55–57 local time, Anak Krakatau volcano, located in the Sunda Straits of Indonesia, experienced a major lateral collapse during a period of eruptive activity that began in June. The collapse discharged volcaniclastic material into the 250 m deep caldera southwest of the volcano, which generated a tsunami with runups of up to 13 m on the adjacent coasts of Sumatra and Java. The tsunami caused at least 437 fatalities, the greatest number from a volcanically-induced tsunami since the catastrophic explosive eruption of Krakatau in 1883 and the sector collapse of Ritter Island in 1888. For the first time in over 100 years, the 2018 Anak Krakatau event provides an opportunity to study a major volcanically-generated tsunami that caused widespread loss of life and significant damage. Here, we present numerical simulations of the tsunami, with state-of the-art numerical models, based on a combined landslide-source and bathymetric dataset. We constrain the geometry and magnitude of the landslide source through analyses of pre- and post-event satellite images and aerial photography, which demonstrate that the primary landslide scar bisected the Anak Krakatau volcano, cutting behind the central vent and removing 50% of its subaerial extent. Estimated submarine collapse geometries result in a primary landslide volume range of 0.22–0.30 km3, which is used to initialize a tsunami generation and propagation model with two different landslide rheologies (granular and fluid). Observations of a single tsunami, with no subsequent waves, are consistent with our interpretation of landslide failure in a rapid, single phase of movement rather than a more piecemeal process, generating a tsunami which reached nearby coastlines within ~30 minutes. Both modelled rheologies successfully reproduce observed tsunami characteristics from post-event field survey results, tide gauge records, and eyewitness reports, suggesting our estimated landslide volume range is appropriate. This event highlights the significant hazard posed by relatively small-scale lateral volcanic collapses, which can occur en-masse, without any precursory signals, and are an efficient and unpredictable tsunami source. Our successful simulations demonstrate that current numerical models can accurately forecast tsunami hazards from these events. In cases such as Anak Krakatau’s, the absence of precursory warning signals together with the short travel time following tsunami initiation present a major challenge for mitigating tsunami coastal impact

New Insights Into the Relationship Between Mass Eruption Rate and Volcanic Column Height Based On the IVESPA Data Set

Rapid and simple estimation of the mass eruption rate (MER) from column height is essential for real-time volcanic hazard management and reconstruction of past explosive eruptions. Using 134 eruptive events from the new Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, v1.0), we explore empirical MER-height relationships for four measures of column height: spreading level, sulfur dioxide height, and top height from direct observations and as reconstructed from deposits. These relationships show significant differences and highlight limitations of empirical models currently used in operational and research applications. The roles of atmospheric stratification, wind, and humidity remain challenging to detect across the wide range of eruptive conditions spanned in IVESPA, ultimately resulting in empirical relationships outperforming analytical models that account for atmospheric conditions. This finding highlights challenges in constraining the MER-height relation using heterogeneous observations and empirical models, which reinforces the need for improved eruption source parameter data sets and physics-based models

Measuring the size of non-spherical particles and the implications for grain size analysis in volcanology

To quantify the size of tephra, two practical challenges must be addressed: the wide range of particle sizes (10−8 - 101 m) and the diversity of particle shape, density and optical properties. Here we use dynamic image analysis (DIA) to simultaneously characterise the size and shape of tephra samples from Mount Mazama, Krafla, Mount St. Helens and Campi Flegrei. The Camsizer X2 instrument used in this study, which has a measurement range of 0.8 μm – 8 mm, avoids the need to overlap different measurement methods and principles for fine (125 μm) particle sizes. Importantly, DIA does not require an assumption of particle properties. DIA also allows the measurement of grain size distributions (GSDs) using multiple size definitions. Quantification by particle long axis and the area equivalent sphere diameter, for example, make DIA GSDs compatible with the outputs of other methods such as laser diffraction and sieving. Parallel mass-based (sieving) and volume-based (DIA) GSDs highlight the effects of particle density variations on methods of size analysis; concentrations of dense crystals within a narrow size range, in particular, can affect mass-based GSDs and their interpretations. We also show that particle shape has an important effect on the apparent grain size of distal tephra. Extreme particle shapes, such as the platy glass shards typical of the distal Campanian Ignimbrite deposits, can appear coarser than other distal tephras if size is quantified according to the particle long axis. These results have important implications for ash dispersion models, where input GSDs assume that reported measurements are for volume-equivalent sphere diameters. We conclude that DIA methods are not only suitable for characterising, simultaneously, the size and shape of ash particles but also provide new insights into particle properties that are useful for both ash dispersion modelling and studies of explosive volcanism

New Insights Into the Relationship Between Mass Eruption Rate and Volcanic Column Height Based On the IVESPA Data Set

Rapid and simple estimation of the mass eruption rate (MER) from column height is essential for real-time volcanic hazard management and reconstruction of past explosive eruptions. Using 134 eruptive events from the new Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, v1.0), we explore empirical MER-height relationships for four measures of column height: spreading level, sulfur dioxide height, and top height from direct observations and as reconstructed from deposits. These relationships show significant differences and highlight limitations of empirical models currently used in operational and research applications. The roles of atmospheric stratification, wind, and humidity remain challenging to detect acrossthe wide range of eruptive conditions spanned in IVESPA, ultimately resulting in empirical relationships outperforming analytical models that account for atmospheric conditions. This finding highlights challenges in constraining the MER-height relation using heterogeneous observations and empirical models, which reinforces the need for improved eruption source parameter data sets and physics-based models