Monetary Policy Rules and Directions of Causality: a Test for the Euro Area

Using a VAR model in first differences with quarterly data for the euro zone, the study aims to ascertain whether decisions on monetary policy can be interpreted in terms of a “monetary policy rule” with specific reference to the so-called nominal GDP targeting rule (Hall and Mankiw, 1994; McCallum, 1988; Woodford, 2012). The results obtained indicate a causal relation proceeding from deviation between the growth rates of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and target GDP to variation in the three-month market interest rate. The same analyses do not, however, appear to confirm the existence of a significant inverse causal relation from variation in the market interest rate to deviation between the nominal and target GDP growth rates. Similar results were obtained on replacing the market interest rate with the European Central Bank refinancing interest rate. This confirmation of only one of the two directions of causality does not support an interpretation of monetary policy based on the nominal GDP targeting rule and gives rise to doubt in more general terms as to the applicability of the Taylor rule and all the conventional rules of monetary policy to the case in question. The results appear instead to be more in line with other possible approaches, such as those based on post Keynesian analyses of monetary theory and policy and more specifically the so-called solvency rule (Brancaccio and Fontana, 2013, 2015). These lines of research challenge the simplistic argument that the scope of monetary policy consists in the stabilization of inflation, real GDP, or nominal income around a “natural equilibrium” level. Rather, they suggest that central banks actually follow a more complex purpose, which is the political regulation of the financial system with particular reference to the relations between creditors and debtors and the related solvency of economic units

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

Comparison of pig restraint, sampling methods, and analysis on blood lactate concentration

The objective of the study was to examine the effects of restraint and blood sampling method on blood lactate concentration (LAC) in pigs. Restraint methods used were snaring or restraint with sorting boards. Blood was sampled from 120 pigs at approximately 165 d of age (278.0 ± 6.4 lb) over 2 consecutive days. Each day, 30 pigs were sampled per method. All pigs were housed in one barn, and pigs in adjacent pens were not sampled simultaneously. Snaring consisted of a trained handler snaring each pig while blood was collected via jugular venipuncture (approximately 7 mL). Restraint with sorting boards consisted of a trained handler restraining each pig with two sorting boards and the side of the pen to form a three-sided barrier to reduce pig movement. The distal ear vein was pricked with a 20-gauge needle to obtain several drops of blood for LAC analysis. Lactate concentration was measured using a handheld lactate analyzer. The duration of restraint and a behavior score (1 to 4; 1 = no vocalization or movement and 4 = constant movement, vocalization, and struggle) for each pig were recorded during sampling. Blood lactate was compared between the 2 sampling methods and duration of restraint was used as a covariate in the analysis

Nondestructive Estimation of Standing Crop and Fuel Moisture Content in Tallgrass Prairie

Accurate estimation of standing crop and herbaceous fuel moisture content (FMC) are important for grazing management and wildfire preparedness. Destructive sampling techniques have been used to accurately estimate standing crop and FMC, but those techniques are laborious and time consuming. Existing nondestructive methods for estimating standing crop in tallgrass prairie have limitations, and few studies have examined nondestructive estimation techniques for FMC in this environment. Therefore, our objective was to develop robust models for nondestructive estimation of standing crop and FMC in tallgrass prairie. We calibrated and validated stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models for standing crop and FMC using data collected in tallgrass prairies near Stillwater, Oklahoma. Day of year (DOY), canopy height (CH), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and percent reflectance in five wavelength bands were candidate input variables for the models. The study spanned two growing seasons and nine patches located within three pastures under patch burn management, and the resulting data set with > 3 000 observations was split randomly with 85% for model calibration and 15% withheld for validation. Standing crop ranged from 0 to 852 g m− 2, and FMC ranged from 0% to 204%. With DOY, CH, and NDVI as predictors, the SMLR model for standing crop produced a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 119 g m− 2 on the validation data, while the RMSE of the corresponding ANN model was 116 g m− 2. With the same predictors, the SMLR model for FMC produced an RMSE of 26.7% compared with 23.8% for the corresponding ANN model. Thus, the ANN models provided better prediction accuracy but at the cost of added computational complexity. Given the large variability in the underlying datasets, the models developed here may prove useful for nondestructive estimation of standing crop and FMC in other similar grassland environments. © 2018 Society for Range ManagementThe Rangeland Ecology & Management archives are made available by the Society for Range Management and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information