Evidence for an endogenous rebound effect impacting long-run car use elasticity to fuel price

This paper presents a structural equation model of household fleet fuel efficiency and car use. It allows to weigh the contribution of car equipment changes and car use adjustments to the price elasticity of household demand for fuel. This model is implemented using a panel dataset of 322 households that were present in each annual wave of the French Car Fleet survey from 1999 to 2007. The longitudinal dimension of this dataset enables to assess the short and long-run adjustments at the household level over a period of fuel price increase. The estimated price elasticities of the demand for fuel are fully consistent with the literature: -0.30 in the short run and -0.76 in the long run. Regarding car use elasticities, accounting for an endogenous rebound effect allowed a striking finding: the sensitivity of household car use to fuel price changes is lower on the long run than on the short run. This paper thus not only provides the latest estimations of elasticities for France, in the early 2000's, it also shows that, on the long run, French households have managed to mitigate the impact of increasing fuel prices on their car mobility by using more fuel efficient cars.Elasticity, Fuel Price, Rebound effect, Energy consumption, Energy efficiency, Car use, Household, Panel data

Measuring risk and time preferences in an integrated framework

We investigate time discounting under risk. To this end, we modify a popular multiple price list (MPL) design to elicit time discounting. Structural estimations of model parameters yield several new insights. For one, we find present bias to persist under risk, contrary to some previous evidence from the psychology literature. We further confirm the robustness of inverse-S shaped probability weighting. This is important inasmuch as random choice predicts the opposite shape in our setup. We also show that correcting for probability weighting under risk impacts the assessment of discount rates. Those are systematically underestimated under the commonly used, more restrictive, expected utility. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Signal perception and belief updating

This paper introduces a theory of signal perception to study how people update their beliefs. By allowing perceived signals to deviate from actual signals, we identify the probability that people miss or misread signals, giving indices of conservatism and confirmatory bias. In an experiment, we elicited perceived signals from choices and obtained a structural estimation of the indices. The subjects were conservative and acted as if they missed 65% of the signals they received. Also they exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 17% of the signals contradicting their prior beliefs

Modeling attitudes towards uncertainty across attributes, sources and time

This document presents a summary of my research since my PhD Defense in March 2014. My work mainly consists in empirical investigations of preferences in decisions involving uncertainty and/or time. Most empirical studies on preferences under uncertainty focus on a restricted context where probabilities are known and outcomes are immediately-received monetary outcomes. My research extends the scope of decision contexts by exploring the impact of the type of consequence (the attribute), the source of uncertainty, and the timing of resolution of uncertainty and/or reception of outcomes on attitudes towards uncertainty. The document summarizes my main papers contributing to this research direction. It then presents a critical discussion of this work and proposes directions for future research

Dissuasion de la conduite sous l’emprise de l’alcool : de la théorie aux comportements

International audienceDriving under influence has become the main cause of fatalities on French roads, and the deterrence policies implemented over the last decades have shown limited impacts on these behaviors. This paper presents a behavioral analysis of deterrence theory, in the case of DUI. These policies are shown to be particularly efficient when users are risk averse. The second part presents empirical studies showing that alcohol consumption is generally associated to risk taking behaviors. These results partly explain why deterrence has failed to reduce DUI related fatalities significantly. A discussion proposes research directions for the development of deterrence theory and suggests that a better understanding on the impact of alcohol consumption on decision making may help improving the impact of these policies.La conduite sous l'emprise de l'alcool est devenue la cause principale d'accidents mortels en France et les politiques de dissuasion menées au cours des dernières décennies n'ont eu qu'un impact limité sur ce type de comportement. Cet article présente une analyse comportementale du principe de dissuasion appliqué à la lutte contre l'alcool au volant. Il est montré que ce type d'action publique est particulièrement efficace face à des usagers présentant une aversion pour le risque. Une seconde partie présente des études comportementales montrant que la consommation d'alcool s'accompagne généralement d'une propension à la prise de risques. Ces résultats offrent une explication de l'efficacité limitée des politiques de dissuasion à la conduite sous l'emprise de l'alcool. La façon dont la théorie de la dissuasion peut dépasser cette limite est discutée. Les éléments relevés permettent également de montrer qu'une meilleure connaissance des effets de l'alcool sur la prise de décision permettrait de mettre en place des politiques de dissuasion plus efficaces

Attitudes envers l'incertitude avec des conséquences en unités monétaires et de temps : à l'appui d'études expérimentales

Attitudes envers l'incertitude avec des conséquences en unités monétaires et de temps : à l'appui d'études expérimentales.No English summary available

Eliciting Prospect Theory When Consequences Are Measured in Time Units: "Time Is Not Money"

International audienceWe elicited the prospect theory components (utility, probability weighting, and loss aversion) when consequences are expressed as the time dedicated to a specific task or activity. A similar elicitation was performed for monetary consequences to allow an across-attribute (time/money) comparison of the elicited components (at the individual level). We obtained less concave utility and smaller loss aversion for time than for money. Moreover, while the probability weighting was predominantly inverse S-shaped for both attributes, it was less sensitive to probabilities and more elevated for time than for money. This finding implies more optimism for gains and more pessimism for losses

Measuring natural source dependence

The consequences of most economic decisions are uncertain: they are conditional on events with unknown probabilities that decision makers evaluate based on their beliefs. Beyond consequences and beliefs, decision makers' preferences for the source of uncertainty generating events can affect decisions, entailing a source-dependence of preferences. However, there is, to date, no direct way to measure and interpret source dependence for natural sources, preventing researchers from comparing source preference across decision makers or across natural sources. This paper presents a simple and general method to measure source dependence by introducing a source-dependence function that maps the subjective probabilities of events generated by two sources. The method allows to characterize source dependence from a limited number of observations and is compatible with commonly used, choice-based data. We implement the method on four datasets and show that it consistently captures clear, albeit heterogeneous, patterns of source dependence between natural sources

An economic analysis of wrong-way driving and possible countermeasures

Les prises à contresens constituent un réel enjeu pour le décideur public. En effet, bien qu'elles représentent une faible proportion de l'accidentalité totale, ce type d'accident est particulièrement mortel. Par ailleurs, l'opinion publique est y particulièrement sensible. Existe-t-il une intervention efficace lorsque les enjeux en termes d'accidentalité sont si faibles ? Cette contribution propose une analyse économique de la signalisation B1J, une contremesure pour lutter contre les prises à contresens et expérimentée en Bretagne et les Pays de Loire, deux régions françaises. Dans un premier temps, la contribution précise les dimensions économiques associées aux contremesures pour lutter contre les prises à contresens : des gains faibles qui s'expliquent par une accidentalité peu importante et des besoins en équipement importants. Dans un second temps, le papier propose une analyse coûts-avantages appliquée à la signalisation B1J et montre l'efficacité économique de cette mesure. La contribution développe ensuite le concept de taux technique efficace, qui se comprend comme le taux d'efficacité minimale attendu pour que la mesure soit économiquement efficace. Ce concept est particulièrement utile pour le calcul économique lorsque l'efficacité de la mesure est incertaine. Finalement, cette contribution montre les apports de l'économie de la sécurité routière. Il discute aussi les potentialités et les limites de l'analyse coûts-avantages

Risking the Future? Measuring Risk Attitudes towards Delayed Consequences

This paper presents an experiment that investigates differences of risk attitudes in decisions with immediate versus delayed consequences. Our experimental design allows to control for the effects of discounting and timing of risk resolution. We show that individuals are more risk tolerant in situations involving delayed consequences. Investigations based on rank-dependent utility show that this finding is mainly driven by probability weighting. More precisely, probability weighting is more elevated for delayed consequences, suggesting an overall increase in decision maker's optimism regarding the chances of success associated to risks for which consequences materialize in the future