30 * Some Nigeria Students' Performance in Practical and Theoretical Chemistry Tests as Predictors of their Performance in MOCK-SSCE Chemistry Examinations

Abstract: This study adopted the expost facto design in which the results of some Nigeria students" practical knowledge of Chemistry and their tests of theoretical knowledge of Chemistry were used to predict their performance in MOCK-SSCE Chemistry. The Senior School Certificate Examination (SSCE) is a terminal examination while the internal or State qualifying examination set after the pattern of SSCE is called MOCK-SSCE

One hundred years of hypertension research : a topic modelling study

Background: Due to scientific and technical advancements in the field, published hypertension research has developed substantially during the last decade. Given the amount of scientific material published in this field, identifying the relevant information is difficult. We used topic modeling, which is a strong approach for extracting useful information from enormous amounts of unstructured text. Objective: This study aims to use a machine learning algorithm to uncover hidden topics and subtopics from 100 years of peer-reviewed hypertension publications and identify temporal trends. Methods: The titles and abstracts of hypertension papers indexed in PubMed were examined. We used the latent Dirichlet allocation model to select 20 primary subjects and then ran a trend analysis to see how popular they were over time. Results: We gathered 581,750 hypertension-related research articles from 1900 to 2018 and divided them into 20 topics. These topics were broadly categorized as preclinical, epidemiology, complications, and therapy studies. Topic 2 (evidence review) and topic 19 (major cardiovascular events) are the key (hot topics). Most of the cardiopulmonary disease subtopics show little variation over time, and only make a small contribution in terms of proportions. The majority of the articles (414,206/581,750; 71.2%) had a negative valency, followed by positive (119, 841/581,750; 20.6%) and neutral valency (47,704/581,750; 8.2%). Between 1980 and 2000, negative sentiment articles fell somewhat, while positive and neutral sentiment articles climbed substantially. Conclusions: The number of publications has been increasing exponentially over the period. Most of the uncovered topics can be grouped into four categories (ie, preclinical, epidemiology, complications, and treatment-related studies)

Community Resilience, Centralized Leadership & Multi-Sectoral Collaboration

Since the end of the 1918 pandemic the world has faced three more influenza pandemics, the most recent being the 2009 H1N1 pandemic which infected 2 billion people in 6 months. Additionally, we face an ever increasing frequency of emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential. These diseases could kill millions, cost billions, and have other significant economic, social, national security, and political consequences. If the United States and international system do not make progress towards closing the gaps addressed in this and previous Scowcroft white papers, countries will remain vulnerable to a devastating outbreak.One hundred years ago the 1918 influenza pandemic swept the globe, killing between 50-90 million people. The loss of life was so great that cities throughout the United States struggled to keep up with burials; it is estimated that 195,000 Americans died in October 1918 alone (CDC, 2018). During the height of the outbreak, Chicago reported 1,200 people dying per day and Philadelphia had so many dead bodies they weren’t able to bury them in a timely manner, with some awaiting burial for over a week (CDC, 2018). In 2006, the last remaining survivor of the 1918 outbreak was asked about his memories of the pandemic and he recalled that people would become ill in the morning and be dead by nighttime stating, “That’s how quickly it happened. They disappeared from the face of the earth” (Associated Press, 2006). Since the end of the 1918 pandemic the world has faced three more influenza pandemics, the most recent being the 2009 H1N1 pandemic which infected 2 billion people in 6 months. Additionally, we face an ever increasing frequency of emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential. These diseases could kill millions, cost billions, and have other significant economic, social, national security, and political consequences. Technological developments of the last hundred years have brought incredible international advancements and have created a more dependent and interconnected global economy, but these same advances that promote economic prosperity, also create new and unique challenges for pandemic preparedness and response. In an increasingly interconnected world the threat of pandemics continues to grow. It is not a matter of if there will be a major pandemic, but when. The Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs is committed to elevating the importance of pandemic preparedness and biosecurity as a national security priority, and to bringing attention to the challenges and gaps, as well as the opportunities to improve our response systems so that when the next pandemic strikes, the catastrophic impacts can be mitigated or reduced. In this white paper, we address four gaps and provide accompanying recommendations that we believe must be addressed in order to increase our pandemic preparedness and biosecurity. These gaps and topic areas include: 1) Establishing greater community resilience; 2) Strengthening coordination and leadership at the federal level in the United States; 3) Changing the university and funding reward systems to encourage greater interdisciplinary research, education, and service; and 4) Elevating the importance and incentives for private sector involvement in pandemic preparedness and response, as well as their involvement in overall biosecurity. In addition to the topic areas, which are present in each annual policy white paper, we have included short inserts by experts in the fields of pandemic preparedness and biosecurity. Lastly, for the first time we have included a pandemic report card. This examines progress made, if any, on the recommendations presented in the 2018 Scowcroft Institute White Paper. The purpose of this new addition is to provide an added element of accountability for those at the national and international level tasked with pandemic preparedness and response. If the United States and international system do not make progress towards closing the gaps addressed in this and previous Scowcroft white papers, countries will remain vulnerable to a devastating outbreak

Using critical information to strengthen pandemic preparedness: the role of national public health agencies.

COVID-19 has demonstrated that most countries' public health systems and capacities are insufficiently prepared to prevent a localised infectious disease outbreak from spreading. Strengthening national preparedness requires National Public Health Institutes (NPHIs), or their equivalent, to overcome practical challenges affecting timely access to, and use of, data that is critical to preparedness. Our situational analysis in collaboration with NPHIs in three countries-Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan-characterises these challenges. Our findings indicate that NPHIs' role necessitates collection and analysis of data from multiple sources that do not routinely share data with public health authorities. Since initiating requests for access to new data sources can be a lengthy process, it is essential that NPHIs are routinely monitoring a broad set of priority indicators that are selected to reflect the country-specific context. NPHIs must also have the authority to be able to request rapid sharing of data from public and private sector organisations during health emergencies and to access additional human and financial resources during disease outbreaks. Finally, timely, transparent and informative communication of synthesised data from NPHIs will facilitate sustained data sharing with NPHIs from external organisations. These actions identified by our analysis will support the availability of robust information systems that allow relevant data to be collected, shared and analysed by NPHIs sufficiently rapidly to inform a timely local response to infectious disease outbreaks in the future

Estimating the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria in 2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Targeted public health response to obesity in Nigeria is relatively low due to limited epidemiologic understanding. We aimed to estimate nationwide and sub-national prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult Nigerian population. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, and Africa Journals Online were systematically searched for relevant epidemiologic studies in Nigeria published on or after 01 January 1990. We assessed quality of studies and conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude prevalence rates. Using a meta-regression model, we estimated the number of overweight and obese persons in Nigeria in the year 2020. Results From 35 studies (n = 52,816), the pooled crude prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in Nigeria were 25.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 20.4–29.6) and 14.3% (95% CI: 12.0–15.5), respectively. The prevalence in women was higher compared to men at 25.5% (95% CI: 17.1–34.0) versus 25.2% (95% CI: 18.0–32.4) for overweight, and 19.8% (95% CI: 3.9–25.6) versus 12.9% (95% CI: 9.1–16.7) for obesity, respectively. The pooled mean body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were 25.6 kg/m2 and 86.5 cm, respectively. We estimated that there were 21 million and 12 million overweight and obese persons in the Nigerian population aged 15 years or more in 2020, accounting for an age-adjusted prevalence of 20.3% and 11.6%, respectively. The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were consistently higher among urban dwellers (27.2% and 14.4%) compared to rural dwellers (16.4% and 12.1%). Conclusions Our findings suggest a high prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria. This is marked in urban Nigeria and among women, which may in part be due to widespread sedentary lifestyles and a surge in processed food outlets, largely reflective of a trend across many African settings

Improving National Intelligence for Public Health Preparedness: a methodological approach to finding local multi-sector indicators for health security.

The COVID-19 epidemic is the latest evidence of critical gaps in our collective ability to monitor country-level preparedness for health emergencies. The global frameworks that exist to strengthen core public health capacities lack coverage of several preparedness domains and do not provide mechanisms to interface with local intelligence. We designed and piloted a process, in collaboration with three National Public Health Institutes (NPHIs) in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan, to identify potential preparedness indicators that exist in a myriad of frameworks and tools in varying local institutions. Following a desk-based systematic search and expert consultations, indicators were extracted from existing national and subnational health security-relevant frameworks and prioritised in a multi-stakeholder two-round Delphi process. Eighty-six indicators in Ethiopia, 87 indicators in Nigeria and 51 indicators in Pakistan were assessed to be valid, relevant and feasible. From these, 14-16 indicators were prioritised in each of the three countries for consideration in monitoring and evaluation tools. Priority indicators consistently included private sector metrics, subnational capacities, availability and capacity for electronic surveillance, measures of timeliness for routine reporting, data quality scores and data related to internally displaced persons and returnees. NPHIs play an increasingly central role in health security and must have access to data needed to identify and respond rapidly to public health threats. Collecting and collating local sources of information may prove essential to addressing gaps; it is a necessary step towards improving preparedness and strengthening international health regulations compliance

COVID-19 mortality rate and its associated factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98–57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60–20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35–2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11–2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59–3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20–4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26–5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90–12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country’s surveillance system during the study

A scorecard of progress towards measles elimination in 15 west African countries, 2001-19: a retrospective, multicountry analysis of national immunisation coverage and surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: The WHO Regional Office for the Africa Regional Immunization Technical Advisory Group, in 2011, adopted the measles control and elimination goals for all countries of the African region to achieve in 2015 and 2020 respectively. Our aim was to track the current status of progress towards measles control and elimination milestones across 15 west African countries between 2001 and 2019. METHODS: We did a retrospective multicountry series analysis of national immunisation coverage and case surveillance data from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2019. Our analysis focused on the 15 west African countries that constitute the Economic Community of West African States. We tracked progress in the coverage of measles-containing vaccines (MCVs), measles supplementary immunisation activities, and measles incidence rates. We developed a country-level measles summary scorecard using eight indicators to track progress towards measles elimination as of the end of 2019. The summary indicators were tracked against measles control and elimination milestones. FINDINGS: The weighted average regional first-dose MCV coverage in 2019 was 66% compared with 45% in 2001. 73% (11 of 15) of the west African countries had introduced second-dose MCV as of December, 2019. An estimated 4 588 040 children (aged 12-23 months) did not receive first-dose MCV in 2019, the majority (71%) of whom lived in Nigeria. Based on the scorecard, 12 (80%) countries are off-track to achieving measles elimination milestones; however, Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana have made substantial progress. INTERPRETATION: Measles will continue to be endemic in west Africa after 2020. The regional measles incidence rate in 2019 was 33 times the 2020 elimination target of less than 1 case per million population. However, some hope exists as countries can look at the efforts made by Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana and learn from them. FUNDING: None

The One Health approach to incident management of the 2019 Lassa fever outbreak response in Nigeria.

Globally, effective emergency response to disease outbreaks is usually affected by weak coordination. However, coordination using an incident management system (IMS) in line with a One Health approach involving human, environment, and animal health with collaborations between government and non-governmental agencies result in improved response outcome for zoonotic diseases such as Lassa fever (LF). We provide an overview of the 2019 LF outbreak response in Nigeria using the IMS and One Health approach. The response was coordinated via ten Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) response pillars. Cardinal response activities included activation of EOC, development of an incident action plan, deployment of One Health rapid response teams to support affected states, mid-outbreak review and after-action review meetings. Between 1st January and 29th December 2019, of the 5057 people tested for LF, 833 were confirmed positive from 23 States, across 86 Local Government Areas. Of the 833 confirmed cases, 650 (78%) were from hotspot States of Edo (36%), Ondo (26%) and Ebonyi (16%). Those in the age-group 21-40 years (47%) were mostly affected, with a male to female ratio of 1:1. Twenty healthcare workers were affected. Two LF naïve states Kebbi and Zamfara, reported confirmed cases for the first time during this period. The outbreak peaked earlier in the year compared to previous years, and the emergency phase of the outbreak was declared over by epidemiological week 17 based on low national threshold composite indicators over a period of six consecutive weeks. Multisectoral and multidisciplinary strategic One Health EOC coordination at all levels facilitated the swift containment of Nigeria's large LF outbreak in 2019. It is therefore imperative to embrace One Health approach embedded within the EOC to holistically address the increasing LF incidence in Nigeria

Epidemiology, diagnostics and factors associated with mortality during a cholera epidemic in Nigeria, October 2020-October 2021: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country