Methodological individualism versus class analysis : the “great recession” as a test case.

While the mainstream economic analysis relates with the other branches of social sciences in an “imperialistic” perspective, an alternative paradigm of social reproduction can contribute to develop an interdisciplinary approach to political economy. Originated in the contributions of Classical economists and Marx and currently developed by the critical schools of economic thought, the paradigm of social reproduction rejects the individualistic foundations of mainstream economics and recognize social classes and related conflicts on production and distribution as essential elements to make economic analysis consistent with the current reality of capitalist development and crisis. In this sense, the alternative paradigm suggests an interpretation of the recent “Great Recession” based on the specific anthropology of consumption of social classes within capitalism and its implications on the pace of aggregate expenditure. Empirical evidence gives support to this interpretation, which also offers some insights about the possible relations between the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of capitalist crisis and the international development of progressive social movements.Mientras el análisis económico tradicional se relaciona con otras ramas de las ciencias sociales bajo una perspectiva “imperialista”, el paradigma alternativo de la reproducción social puede contribuir al desarrollo de una aproximación interdisciplinaria a la economía política. Originado en las constribuciones de los economistas clásicos y Marx y actualmente desarrollada por las escuelas críticas de pensamiento económico, el paradigma de la reproducción social rechaza las bases individualistas de la Economía dominante y reconoce a las clases sociales y los conflictos relacionados con la producción y la distribución como elementos esenciales para realizar análisis económicos consistentes con la actualidad del capitalismo y su crisis. En este sentido, el paradigma alternativo sugiere una interpretación de la reciente “Gran recesión” basado en la antropología del consumo de las clases sociales al interior del capitalismo y sus implicaciones en el ritmo del gasto agregado. La evidencia empírica avala esta interpretación que, también ofrece algunas luces sobre las posibles relaciones entre las complejas dinámicas espaciales y temporales de la crisis capitalista y el desarrollo internacional de movimientos sociales progresistas

Centralizzazione del capitale, guerra e pace

Il paper elabora uno schema di “riproduzione” capitalistica che delinea una condizione di “zero stazionario” della “centralizzazione del capitale” a livello internazionale. Sviluppando le indagini sui possibili nessi tra squilibri commerciali, centralizzazione del capitale e “imperialismo”, le proprietà di esistenza e stabilità dello stato stazionario della centralizzazione vengono esaminate come potenziali “condizioni economiche” di deterioramento o di pacificazione delle relazioni internazionali

Catástrofe o revolución

The former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund argued that aKeynesian “revolution” of economic policy is needed to avoid a future “catastrophe”. His thesis is submitted here to a critical examination on the basis of a criterion of scientific investigation of the historical process defined as the “law of reproduction and tendency of capital”. A prediction emerges from this research method: the freedom of capital and its tendency to centralize in fewer and fewer hands constitutes a threat to other freedoms and to the liberal democratic institutions of our time. Given such a perspective, Keynes is not enough, just as it is not enough to invoke income. The only revolution capable of avoiding a catastrophe of rights lies in the recovery and relaunch of the strongest lever in the history of political struggles: collective planning, understood this time in the new and subversive sense of a factor in the development of free social individuality and of a new liberated human type. A challenge that calls into question an entire architecture of beliefs and imposes a reflection on all the movements of struggle and emancipation of our time, still locked in the narrow enclosure of a liberal paradigm already in crisis. —————El exjefe economista del Fondo Monetario Internacional argumentó que se necesita una “revolución” keynesiana de la política económica para evitar una futura “catástrofe”. Su tesis se somete aquí a un examen crítico sobre la base de un criterio de investigación científica del proceso histórico definido como la “ley de reproducción y tendencia del capital”. De este método de investigación surge una predicción: la libertad del capital y su tendencia a centralizarse en cada vez menos manos constituye una amenaza para otras libertades y para las instituciones democráticas liberales de nuestro tiempo. Ante tal perspectiva, Keynes no es suficiente, como tampoco basta con invocar un ingreso. La única revolución capaz de evitar una catástrofe de derechos está en la recuperación y relanzamiento de la palanca más fuerte en la historia de las luchas políticas: la planificación colectiva, entendida esta vez en el nuevo y subversivo sentido de factor de desarrollo de la libre individualidad social y de un nuevo tipo humano liberado. Un desafío que pone en tela de juicio toda una arquitectura de creencias e impone una reflexión sobre todos los movimientos de lucha y emancipación de nuestro tiempo, aún encerrados en el estrecho recinto de un paradigma liberal ya en crisis

Monetary Policy Rules and Directions of Causality: a Test for the Euro Area

Using a VAR model in first differences with quarterly data for the euro zone, the study aims to ascertain whether decisions on monetary policy can be interpreted in terms of a “monetary policy rule” with specific reference to the so-called nominal GDP targeting rule (Hall and Mankiw, 1994; McCallum, 1988; Woodford, 2012). The results obtained indicate a causal relation proceeding from deviation between the growth rates of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and target GDP to variation in the three-month market interest rate. The same analyses do not, however, appear to confirm the existence of a significant inverse causal relation from variation in the market interest rate to deviation between the nominal and target GDP growth rates. Similar results were obtained on replacing the market interest rate with the European Central Bank refinancing interest rate. This confirmation of only one of the two directions of causality does not support an interpretation of monetary policy based on the nominal GDP targeting rule and gives rise to doubt in more general terms as to the applicability of the Taylor rule and all the conventional rules of monetary policy to the case in question. The results appear instead to be more in line with other possible approaches, such as those based on post Keynesian analyses of monetary theory and policy and more specifically the so-called solvency rule (Brancaccio and Fontana, 2013, 2015). These lines of research challenge the simplistic argument that the scope of monetary policy consists in the stabilization of inflation, real GDP, or nominal income around a “natural equilibrium” level. Rather, they suggest that central banks actually follow a more complex purpose, which is the political regulation of the financial system with particular reference to the relations between creditors and debtors and the related solvency of economic units

Deficit commerciale, crisi di bilancio e politica deflazionista

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On the Impossibility of Reducing the Surplus Approach to a Neoclassical 'Special Case': A Criticism of Hahn in a Solowian Context

We propose a new criticism of Frank Hahn's attempt to prove that the surplus approach constitutes no more than a 'special case' of the neoclassical model of intertemporal general equilibrium. In particular, we show that Hahn's 'special case' is vitiated by the paradox of determining the past as a function of the future. In order to make the communication between schools of thought easier, we present our criticism of Hahn within a mathematical framework drawn from the well-known Solow growth model.

Le “riforme strutturali” del mercato del lavoro: promesse politiche ed evidenze empiriche

Una proposta di dialogo tra economisti e giuristi ispirata a una rassegna delle evidenze empiriche sugli effetti delle politiche di deregolamentazione del mercato del lavoro