Managing Debt Stability

This paper presents a simple model in which debt management stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio in face of shocks to real returns and output growth and thus supports fiscal restraint in ensuring sustainability. The optimal composition of public debt is derived by looking at the relative impact of the risk and cost of alternative debt instruments on the cost of missing the stabilization target. The optimal debt structure is a function of the expected return differentials between debt instruments, of the conditional variance of their returns and of the conditional covariances of their returns with output growth and inflation. We then explore how the relevant covariances and thus the optimal choice of debt instruments depend on the monetary regime and on Central Bank preferences for output stabilization, inflation control and interest-rate smoothing. Finally, we estimate the composition of public debt that would have supported debt stabilization in OECD countries over the last two decades. The empirical evidence suggests that the public debt should have a long maturity and a large share of it should be indexed to the price level.debt management, debt structure, debt stabilization, inflation indexation, interest rates

Modelling Italian Inflation, 1970 - 1998

In this paper a paper for the dynamics of inflation in Italy is proposed.Changes in monetary and credit markets, along with substantional changes in many sectors of the Italian economy suggest to split the sample period into two sub-sample and modelling the dynamics of inflation differently for each of the periods. Disequilibria from both demand and supply sides of the economy strongly contribute to the determination of inflation consistenly with each of the mainly theoretical explanations. Equilibrium-correction terms are developed for all sectors of the economy for each the two sub-samples. The different responses of the inflation growth rate to the different equilibrium relations found in the two periods strongly support the separate investigation pursued in the empirical analysis. Moreover, the empirical analisys confirms that no single cause can explanain the pattern of the Italian inflationInflation dynamics, Disequilibria, Structural breaks, Equilibrium correction model

Internationalisation modes and determinants. The case of Italian automotive firms

The aim of this paper is to study the characteristics of the internationalisation process and to identify its determinants in a representative sample of firms in the Italian automotive chain. The main findings of an econometric analysis based on micro-evidence are that: a) the firms engage in complex modes of internationalisation; b) the individual firm's characteristics play a significant role; c) the firms located in the province of Turin have a clear localisation advantage, a sort of an 'industrial district' effect.Internationalisation, Firm Behaviour, Automotive Industry, Qualitative Choice Models

How future surgery will benefit from SARS-COV-2-related measures: a SPIGC survey conveying the perspective of Italian surgeons

COVID-19 negatively affected surgical activity, but the potential benefits resulting from adopted measures remain unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the change in surgical activity and potential benefit from COVID-19 measures in perspective of Italian surgeons on behalf of SPIGC. A nationwide online survey on surgical practice before, during, and after COVID-19 pandemic was conducted in March-April 2022 (NCT:05323851). Effects of COVID-19 hospital-related measures on surgical patients' management and personal professional development across surgical specialties were explored. Data on demographics, pre-operative/peri-operative/post-operative management, and professional development were collected. Outcomes were matched with the corresponding volume. Four hundred and seventy-three respondents were included in final analysis across 14 surgical specialties. Since SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, application of telematic consultations (4.1% vs. 21.6%; p < 0.0001) and diagnostic evaluations (16.4% vs. 42.2%; p < 0.0001) increased. Elective surgical activities significantly reduced and surgeons opted more frequently for conservative management with a possible indication for elective (26.3% vs. 35.7%; p < 0.0001) or urgent (20.4% vs. 38.5%; p < 0.0001) surgery. All new COVID-related measures are perceived to be maintained in the future. Surgeons' personal education online increased from 12.6% (pre-COVID) to 86.6% (post-COVID; p < 0.0001). Online educational activities are considered a beneficial effect from COVID pandemic (56.4%). COVID-19 had a great impact on surgical specialties, with significant reduction of operation volume. However, some forced changes turned out to be benefits. Isolation measures pushed the use of telemedicine and telemetric devices for outpatient practice and favored communication for educational purposes and surgeon-patient/family communication. From the Italian surgeons' perspective, COVID-related measures will continue to influence future surgical clinical practice

Identification in Structural VAR models with different volatility regimes

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Identification through heteroskedasticity: A likelihood-based approach

In this paper we show how the analysis of identification of simultaneous systems of equations with different volatility regimes can be addressed in a conventional likelihood-based setup, generalizing previous works in different directions. We discuss general conditions for identification and one of the results shows that an adequate number of different levels of heteroskedasticity is sufficient to identify the parameters of the structural form without the inclusion of any kind of restriction. A Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) algorithm is discussed and the small sample performances of estimators and tests on the parameters are studied through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, this methodology is used to investigate the relationships between sovereign bond yields for some highly indebted EU countries.simultaneous equations model, heteroskedasticity, identification, FIML, contagion,

International Knowledge Diffusion and Home-bias Effect: Do USPTO and EPO Patent Citations Tell the Same Story?*

This paper estimates the international diffusion of technical knowledge using patent citations. We control for self-citations and for procedural differences between patent offices using equivalent patents. We find that (1) there are clear biases in patent examination processes that generate citations in the two offices; (2) at the EPO there is a strong localization effect at the country level, and the size is comparable to that found at the USPTO; (3) technological fields have different properties of diffusion in the two patent offices that do not depend on a patent office bias; (4) using EPO data, the US is not the leading country in terms of citations made and received, as occurs at the USPTO. Copyright © The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics" 2010 .