Development and validation of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score

BACKGROUND: Health services have failed to respond to the pressures of multimorbidity. Improved measures of multimorbidity are needed for conducting research, planning services and allocating resources. METHODS: We modelled the association between 37 morbidities and 3 key outcomes (primary care consultations, unplanned hospital admission, death) at 1 and 5 years. We extracted development (n = 300 000) and validation (n = 150 000) samples from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We constructed a general-outcome multimorbidity score by averaging the standardized weights of the separate outcome scores. We compared performance with the Charlson Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: Models that included all 37 conditions were acceptable predictors of general practitioner consultations (C-index 0.732, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.731-0.734), unplanned hospital admission (C-index 0.742, 95% CI 0.737-0.747) and death at 1 year (C-index 0.912, 95% CI 0.905-0.918). Models reduced to the 20 conditions with the greatest combined prevalence/weight showed similar predictive ability (C-indices 0.727, 95% CI 0.725-0.728; 0.738, 95% CI 0.732-0.743; and 0.910, 95% CI 0.904-0.917, respectively). They also predicted 5-year outcomes similarly for consultations and death (C-indices 0.735, 95% CI 0.734-0.736, and 0.889, 95% CI 0.885-0.892, respectively) but performed less well for admissions (C-index 0.708, 95% CI 0.705-0.712). The performance of the general-outcome score was similar to that of the outcome-specific models. These models performed significantly better than those based on the Charlson Comorbidity Index for consultations (C-index 0.691, 95% CI 0.690-0.693) and admissions (C-index 0.703, 95% CI 0.697-0.709) and similarly for mortality (C-index 0.907, 95% CI 0.900-0.914). INTERPRETATION: The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score is robust and can be either tailored or not tailored to specific health outcomes. It will be valuable to those planning clinical services, policymakers allocating resources and researchers seeking to account for the effect of multimorbidity

Evolving surface finite element method for the Cahn-Hilliard equation

We use the evolving surface finite element method to solve a Cahn- Hilliard equation on an evolving surface with prescribed velocity. We start by deriving the equation using a conservation law and appropriate transport for- mulae and provide the necessary functional analytic setting. The finite element method relies on evolving an initial triangulation by moving the nodes according to the prescribed velocity. We go on to show a rigorous well-posedness result for the continuous equations by showing convergence, along a subse- quence, of the finite element scheme. We conclude the paper by deriving error estimates and present various numerical examples

Feasibility of Postmortem Imaging Assessment of Brain: Liver Volume Ratios with Pathological Validation

INTRODUCTION: Organ volumes at postmortem magnetic resonance imaging (PMMR) should reflect autopsy organ weights, and thus brain:liver volume ratios on imaging could be a surrogate for weight volume ratios at autopsy to indicate fetal growth restriction (FGR). This study aims to determine whether imaging-based organ volume ratios can replace autopsy organ weight ratios. Materials and Meth ods: An unselected cohort of perinatal deaths underwent PMMR prior to autopsy. Semiautomated brain and liver volumes were compared to autopsy organ weights and ratios. Ratios were compared using Bland-Altman plots, and intra- and interobserver variability was assessed. RESULTS: A total 49 fetuses (25 male, 51%) at 17-42 weeks gestation were -assessed. There was a reasonable correlation between autopsy-derived brain:liver weight ratios (AB:LwR) and imaging-derived brain:liver volume ratios (IB:LvR; r = 0.8). The mean difference between AB:LwR and IB:LvR was +0.7 (95% limits of agreement range -1.5 to +2.9). In a small subset where FGR was present, the optimal IB:LvR ≥5.5 gave 83.3% sensitivity and 86.0% specificity for diagnosis. There was acceptable agreement within readers (mean difference in IB:LvRs 0.77 ± 2.21) and between readers -0.36 ± 0.68. CONCLUSION: IB:LvR provides a surrogate evaluation of AB:LwRs, and may be used as a marker of FGR where autopsy is declined

Effects of acute tryptophan depletion on central processing of CT-targeted and discriminatory touch in humans.

C-tactile afferents (CTs) are slowly conducting nerve fibres, present only in hairy skin. They are optimally activated by slow, gentle stroking touch, such as those experienced during a caress. CT-stimulation activates affective processing brain regions, alluding to their role in affective touch perception. We tested a theory that CT-activating touch engages the pro-social functions of serotonin, by determining whether reducing serotonin, through acute tryptophan depletion, diminishes subjective pleasantness and affective brain responses to gentle touch. A tryptophan depleting amino acid drink was administered to 16 healthy females, with a further 14 receiving a control drink. After 4 hours, participants underwent an fMRI scan, during which time CT-innervated forearm skin and CT non-innervated finger skin was stroked with 3 brushes of differing texture, at CT-optimal force and velocity. Pleasantness ratings were obtained post-scanning. The control group showed a greater response in ipsilateral orbitofrontal cortex to CT-activating forearm touch compared to touch to the finger where CTs are absent. This differential response was not present in the tryptophan depleted group. This interaction effect was significant. Additionally, control participants showed a differential primary somatosensory cortex response to brush texture applied to the finger, a purely discriminatory touch response, which was not observed in the tryptophan depleted group. This interaction effect was also significant. Pleasantness ratings were comparable across treatment groups. These results implicate serotonin in the differentiation between CT-activating and purely discriminatory touch responses. Such effects could contribute to some of the social abnormalities seen in psychiatric disorders associated with abnormal serotonin function. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Exploring the feasibility of multi-site flow cytometric processing of gut associated lymphoid tissue with centralized data analysis for multi-site clinical trials

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the development of a standardized approach to the collection of intestinal tissue from healthy volunteers, isolation of gut associated lymphoid tissue mucosal mononuclear cells (MMC), and characterization of mucosal T cell phenotypes by flow cytometry was sufficient to minimize differences in the normative ranges of flow parameters generated at two trial sites. Forty healthy male study participants were enrolled in Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. MMC were isolated from rectal biopsies using the same biopsy acquisition and enzymatic digestion protocols. As an additional comparator, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were collected from the study participants. For quality control, cryopreserved PBMC from a single donor were supplied to both sites from a central repository (qPBMC). Using a jointly optimized standard operating procedure, cells were isolated from tissue and blood and stained with monoclonal antibodies targeted to T cell phenotypic markers. Site-specific flow data were analyzed by an independent center which analyzed all data from both sites. Ranges for frequencies for overall CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, derived from the qPBMC samples, were equivalent at both UCLA and MWRI. However, there were significant differences across sites for the majority of T cell activation and memory subsets in qPBMC as well as PBMC and MMC. Standardized protocols to collect, stain, and analyze MMC and PBMC, including centralized analysis, can reduce but not exclude variability in reporting flow data within multi-site studies. Based on these data, centralized processing, flow cytometry, and analysis of samples may provide more robust data across multi-site studies. Centralized processing requires either shipping of fresh samples or cryopreservation and the decision to perform centralized versus site processing needs to take into account the drawbacks and restrictions associated with each method

Identifying unmet clinical need in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using national electronic health records

Introduction: To evaluate unmet clinical need in unselected hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients to determine the risk of a wide range of subsequent cardiovascular disease endpoints and safety endpoints relevant for trial design. Methods: Population based cohort (CALIBER, linked primary care, hospital and mortality records in England, period 1997–2010), all people diagnosed with HCM were identified and matched by age, sex and general practice with ten randomly selected people without HCM. Random-effects Poisson models were used to assess the associations between HCM and cardiovascular diseases and bleeding. Results: Among 3,290,455 eligible people a diagnosis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was found in 4 per 10,000. Forty-one percent of the 1,160 individuals with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy were women and the median age was 57 years. The median follow-up was 4.0 years. Compared to general population controls, people with HCM had higher risk of ventricular arrhythmia (incidence rate ratio = 23.53, [95% confidence interval 12.67–43.72]), cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death (6.33 [3.69–10.85]), heart failure (4.31, [3.30–5.62]), and atrial fibrillation (3.80 [3.04–4.75]). HCM was also associated with a higher incidence of myocardial infarction ([MI] 1.90 [1.27–2.84]) and coronary revascularisation (2.32 [1.46–3.69]).The absolute Kaplan-Meier risks at 3 years were 8.8% for the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or heart failure, 8.4% for the composite of cardiovascular death, stroke or myocardial infarction, and 1.5% for major bleeding. Conclusions: Our study identified major unmet need in HCM and highlighted the importance of implementing improved cardiovascular prevention strategies to increase life-expectancy of the contemporary HCM population. They also show that national electronic health records provide an effective method for identifying outcomes and clinically relevant estimates of composite efficacy and safety endpoints essential for trial design in rare diseases

Characterisation of feline renal cortical fibroblast cultures and their transcriptional response to transforming growth factor beta 1

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common in geriatric cats, and the most prevalent pathology is chronic tubulointerstitial inflammation and fibrosis. The cell type predominantly responsible for the production of extra-cellular matrix in renal fibrosis is the myofibroblast, and fibroblast to myofibroblast differentiation is probably a crucial event. The cytokine TGF-β1 is reportedly the most important regulator of myofibroblastic differentiation in other species. The aim of this study was to isolate and characterise renal fibroblasts from cadaverous kidney tissue of cats with and without CKD, and to investigate the transcriptional response to TGF-β1

Mammalian interspecies substitution of immune modulatory alleles by genome editing

We describe a fundamentally novel feat of animal genetic engineering: the precise and efficient substitution of an agronomic haplotype into a domesticated species. Zinc finger nuclease in-embryo editing of the RELA locus generated live born domestic pigs with the warthog RELA orthologue, associated with resilience to African Swine Fever. The ability to efficiently achieve interspecies allele introgression in one generation opens unprecedented opportunities for agriculture and basic research

Developing a questionnaire to determine the impact of self-management in diabetes: giving people with diabetes a voice

Background The prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is increasing dramatically, placing considerable financial burden on the healthcare budget of each country. Patient self-management is crucial for the control of blood glucose, which largely determines the chances of developing diabetes-related complications. Self-management interventions vary widely, and a method is required for assessing the impact of self-management. This paper describes the development of a questionnaire intended for use to measure the impact of self-management in diabetes. Methods An iterative development process was undertaken to identify the attributes of self-management using 5 steps. First, a literature review was undertaken to identify and understand themes relating to self-management of DM to inform a topic guide. Second, the topic guide was further refined following consultation with a Patient and Public Involvement group. Third, the topic guide was used to inform semi-structured interviews with patients with Type 1 DM (T1DM) and Type 2 DM (T2DM) to identify how self-management of DM affects individuals. Fourth, the research team considered potential attributes alongside health attributes from an existing measure (Diabetes Health Profile, DHP) to produce an instrument reflecting both health and self-management outcomes simultaneously. Finally, a draft instrument was tested in a focus group to determine the wording and acceptability. Results Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 32 patients with T1DM and T2DM. Eight potential attributes were identified: fear/worry/anxiety, guilt, stress, stigma, hassle, control, freedom, and feeling supported. Four of these self-management attributes were selected with four health attributes (mood, worry about hypos (hypoglycaemic episodes), vitality and social limitations) to produce the Health and Self-Management in Diabetes (HASMID v1) questionnaire. Conclusions HASMID v1 is a short questionnaire that contains eight items each with four response levels to measure the impact of self-management in diabetes for both T1DM and T2DM. The measure was developed using a mixed-methods approach that involved semi-structured interviews with people with diabetes. The measure has high face validity. Ongoing research is being undertaken to assess the validity of this questionnaire for measuring the impact of self-management interventions in economic evaluation

Middleborns disadvantaged? testing birth-order effects on fitness in pre-industrial finns

Parental investment is a limited resource for which offspring compete in order to increase their own survival and reproductive success. However, parents might be selected to influence the outcome of sibling competition through differential investment. While evidence for this is widespread in egg-laying species, whether or not this may also be the case in viviparous species is more difficult to determine. We use pre-industrial Finns as our model system and an equal investment model as our null hypothesis, which predicts that (all else being equal) middleborns should be disadvantaged through competition. We found no overall evidence to suggest that middleborns in a family are disadvantaged in terms of their survival, age at first reproduction or lifetime reproductive success. However, when considering birth-order only among same-sexed siblings, first-, middle-and lastborn sons significantly differed in the number of offspring they were able to rear to adulthood, although there was no similar effect among females. Middleborn sons appeared to produce significantly less offspring than first-or lastborn sons, but they did not significantly differ from lastborn sons in the number of offspring reared to adulthood. Our results thus show that taking sex differences into account is important when modelling birth-order effects. We found clear evidence of firstborn sons being advantaged over other sons in the family, and over firstborn daughters. Therefore, our results suggest that parents invest differentially in their offspring in order to both preferentially favour particular offspring or reduce offspring inequalities arising from sibling competition