Perceived adaptive capacity of New Zealand dairy farmers in the face of policy and economic volatility : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Farm Management at Massey University

Increasing global demand for dairy products provided the New Zealand dairy sector with the opportunity to expand. However, that expansion has come at a cost, with dairy farms becoming more reliant on external feed sources, increased debt financing, and irrigation water. At the same time, they have been exposed to a turbulent global economic environment and the increasing domestic concern over the environmental impact of dairying. Consequently, dairy farmers must balance economic efficiency and environmental sustainability in the face of increasing government regulation particularly around addressing deteriorating water quality. This requires dairy farmers and their farm businesses to be resilient, demonstrating some level of buffer capacity, adaptive capacity, and/or transformability. In a changing environment, adaptive capacity is key because a system’s existing buffer capacity is unlikely to cope with such changes. In addition, it is important to avoid inadvertent transformation. Due to the nature of adaptive capacity, the difficulty lies in attempting to measure it. To address this challenge and regarding the role of the decision-maker around adaptive capacity, a shift has begun to measure perceived adaptive capacity. For this measurement, a conceptual framework is required. A combination of five capitals and a decision-making framework was chosen. This conceptual framework is considered natural, physical, financial, human, and social capital. In addition, the risk or uncertainty confronting the business and the management practices are considered in the determination of dimensions for perceived adaptive capacity. In this research, a sequential mixed method was selected. Four in-depth case studies were conducted via face-to-face interviews, focusing on the dimensions of the defined conceptual framework for perceived adaptive capacity. These interviews helped the researcher understand the New Zealand dairy farming context. In addition, the findings from the qualitative phase, alongside previous studies in New Zealand, informed the survey, disseminated to a larger sample of dairy farmers nationwide. The response rate for the survey was 51% (106 out of 209 emails sent) with usable data for analysis of 31% (65 farmers). Principal Component Analysis and Equal Weighting were utilised to calculate the score for seven dimensions for each farmer. The Analytical Hierarchy Process helped to identify the relative importance of each dimension within the framework for each farmer. Finally, the farmer’s perceptions of these dimensions and the relative importance of dimensions were used to develop an index of perceived adaptive capacity. Introducing a new framework and developing an index for perceived adaptive capacity was novel to the literature. The framework provides a lens through the various dimensions that can be used to design a tool to assess perceived adaptive capacity. Moreover, the developed index for each farmer demonstrates that farmers have unique perceptions that build their index. Therefore, classifying farmers as adaptive or less adaptive cannot be conclusive. Instead, the relative importance of different dimensions illustrates whether the individual farmer perceives a dimension as more important than any other to them. A major step toward understanding and increasing the farmer’s adaptive capacity starts from investigating their perceptions. It includes how they see the uncertainty in the environment, how they perceive their farming systems’ capitals, and how important they see the management practices to cope with ongoing changes. The index of the perceived adaptive capacity, also, assists industry agents or advisors to see the farmer’s self-assessment of their capacity to adapt to ongoing changes. In addition, the farmer’s performance in a chosen timeframe shows the consistency (or lack of) between their perceptions and actions. A gap between perceptions and actions can result in a lack of adaptive capacity and may ultimately lead to an inadvertent transformation for the business

Full-Factorial Experimental Design to Determine the Impacts of Influential Parameters on the Porosity and Mechanical Strength of LLDEP Microporous Membrane Fabricated via Thermally Induced Phase Separation Method

Membrane separation processes have a wide application in liquid and gas purification industries. They enjoy advantages such as convenient processibility, easy and lower production and operational costs. Thermally induced phase separation (TIPS) process, due to its wide advantages, has won special attention in recent decades. In this process, a homogenous solution of polymer-diluent at a temperature above the polymer melting point is formed and the solution is then cast in the favorite shape. In order to create a porous structure, the diluent is extracted. In this work, microporous LLDPE membrane is fabricated and full factorial experimental design is used to evaluate the individual as well as mutual impacts of polymer concentration, membrane thickness and cooling bath temperature on the porosity and mechanical strength of the membrane. The results obtained from the analysis of variance of membrane porosity and mechanical strength, showed that the impact of cooling bath temperature is much more important than polymer concentration and membrane thickness. Higher cooling bath temperature, lower polymer concentration and membrane thickness result in higher porosity

ANALYTICAL METHOD VALIDATION, PHARMACOKINETICS AND BIOEQUIVALENCE STUDY OF DIMETHYL FUMARATE IN HEALTHY IRANIAN VOLUNTEERS

Objective: Pharmacokinetic evaluation of Dimethyl Fumarate (DMF) in the Iranian population wasn’t studied. So, the aim of this research is the validation of the analytical method and evaluation of the pharmacokinetic properties and bioequivalence of the generic form of this drug versus the reference product. Methods: 2 single-dose, test, and reference DMF products were orally administered to 24 healthy volunteers. The washout period was 28 d between the treatments. Monomethyl fumarate as the metabolite of DMF was analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and the method was validated. Also, the pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated for bioequivalence evaluation. Results: The analytical method was validated and linear over the range of 31.25-4000 ng/ml (R2= 0.997). In addition, the method was precise and accurate in the low, medium, and high concentrations. The results indicated that the 2 products had similar pharmacokinetics. Further, the 90% CI of the mean ratios of the test versus the reference products of the log-transformed area under the concentration-time curve over 10 h (0.99 to 1.02) and peak concentration (0.98 to 1.03) were within the acceptable range of 0.8 to 1.25 and the generic product of DMF could be similar to that of the reference product. Conclusion: The applied analytical method is selective, accurate, precise, and repeatable for the analysis of monomethyl fumarate (MMF) in plasma. Also, the bioequivalence study showed no significant difference between the pharmacokinetic parameters of these 2 products. So, the DMF test product can be claimed to be bioequivalent with the reference product

Comparison of the root canal debridement ability of two single file systems with a conventional multiple rotary system in long oval-shaped root canals : in vitro study

This study sought to compare the root canal debridement ability of Neolix, Reciproc and ProTaper rotary systems in long oval-shaped root canals. Eighty five extracted single-rooted human teeth with long oval-shaped single root canals were selected and divided into three experimental groups(n=25) and one control group (n= 10). Root canals were filled with Vitapex radiopaque contrast medium and prepared with Neolix, Reciproc or ProTaper systems. The control group only received irrigation. Digital radiographs were obtained at baseline and postoperatively and subjected to digital subtraction. The percentage of reduction in contrast medium was quantified at 0-5 mm and 5-10 mm distances from the apex. The data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and t-test. The mean percentage of the contrast medium removed was not significantly different in the 0-5mm segment among the three groups (P=0.6). In the 5-10mm segment a significant difference was found in this regard among the ProTaper and Reciproc groups (P=0.02) and the highest mean percentage of contrast medium was removed by ProTaper. But, difference between ProTaper and Neolix as well as Neolix and Reciproc was not significant. In Neolix (P=0.024) and Reciproc (P=0.002) systems, the mean percentage of the contrast medium removed from the 0-5mm segment was significantly greater than that in 5-10mm segment; however, this difference was not significant in ProTaper group (P=0.069). Neolix single-file system may be a suitable alternative to ProTaper multiple-file system in debridement of long oval shaped canals

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in North Africa and Middle East countries, 1990 to 2019: Results from the GBD study 2019

ObjectiveTo provide estimates on the regional and national burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019 in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region.Methods and materialsThe Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data were used. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), death, incidence, and prevalence rates were categorized by sex and age groups in the NAME region, in 21 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Decomposition analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of responsible factors in the emergence of new cases. Data are presented as point estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsIn the NAME region, TBL cancer caused 15,396 and 57,114 deaths in women and men, respectively, in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased by 0.7% (95% UI -20.6 to 24.1) and reached 16.8 per 100,000 (14.9 to 19.0) in 2019. All the age-standardized indices had a decreasing trend in men and an increasing trend in women from 1990 to 2019. Turkey (34.9 per 100,000 [27.6 to 43.5]) and Sudan (8.0 per 100,000 [5.2 to 12.5]) had the highest and lowest age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) in 2019, respectively. The highest and lowest absolute slopes of change in ASPR, from 1990 to 2019, were seen in Bahrain (-50.0% (-63.6 to -31.7)) and the United Arab Emirates (-1.2% (-34.1 to 53.8)), respectively. The number of deaths attributable to risk factors was 58,816 (51,709 to 67,323) in 2019 and increased by 136.5%. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth and age structure change positively contributed to new incident cases. More than 80% of DALYs could be decreased by controlling risk factors, particularly tobacco use.ConclusionThe incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of TBL cancer increased, and the death rate remained unchanged from 1990 to 2019. All the indices and contribution of risk factors decreased in men but increased in women. Tobacco is still the leading risk factor. Early diagnosis and tobacco cessation policies should be improved

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Novel Adsorptive Mixed Matrix Membrane by Incorporating Modified Nanoclay with Amino Acid for Removal of Arsenic from Water

In this work, polysulfone (PSf) mixed matrix membranes were prepared by incorporating modified montmorillonite with lysine amino acid (MMT-Lys) for arsenic removal from water. Different tests including XRD, zeta potential, FE-SEM, contact angle, and pure water flux (PWF) were carried out to characterize modified MMT and fabricated mixed matrix membranes. XRD analysis showed that MMT was successfully modified with Lys and its zeta potentials transferred from negative to positive after modification. Positive charge of MMT-Lys made it proper for anionic arsenic removal from water. The obtained results showed that pure water flux and surface hydrophilicity of the membranes improved as MMT-Lys contents increased from 0 to 1.5 wt.%. The batch adsorption of fabricated membranes as a function of arsenic initial concentration and solution pH was investigated. The removal efficiency was increased with increasing the arsenic initial concentration; however it was decreased with increasing pH of solution. The results also revealed that the arsenic adsorption was most favorable in the neutral pH. Moreover, membrane reusability of the PSf/MMT-Lys (1.5 wt.%) membrane was assessed by conducting five cycles of adsorption-desorption experiments in dead-end filtration. The obtained results showed the applicability of the prepared membrane for multiple cycles

Fabrication of ZSM-5 Zeolite Dispersed Polyethylene Membranes via Thermally Induced Phase Separation Method

Simultaneous increase in the permeance coefficient and mechanical strength and decrease in membrane fouling pose a challenge to polymeric membrane researchers. In this work, polyethylene (PE) polymer membranes, to which ZSM-5 zeolite particles have been added, were fabricated via thermally induced phase separation (TIPS) method. The fabrication of membranes is done in two steps; in the first step, in a constant coagulating bath temperature, the ratio of zeolite to polymer varies within 0-30% range and the changes in the pure water permeance and mechanical strength were assessed. The results are indicative of 60% increase in pure water permeancy, 300% increase in the mechanical strength and 400% increase in the ultimate tensile strength in pure water permeancy test in the membrane containing 30 wt% of zeolite. In the second step of optimization of the membrane’s structure and performance, the experimental design and response surface methodology (RSM) is applied to measure the individual and mutual effects of zeolite concentration, membrane’s thickness and bath temperature parameters on the water permeancy and mechanical strength. The results indicated that the water permeancy improved with any increase in the zeolite concentration and coagulation bath temperature while the membrane’s thickness scarcely affected the water permeancy. The interesting point was that any increase in the membrane thickness improved mechanical strength. Finally, the performance of membranes was evaluated using the collagen solution. The results showed that the membranes containing zeolites were more fouling resistant and the degree of resistance increased by increasing the zeolite content

A PSf/Amino Acid-Modified Montmorillonite Mixed Matrix Membrane for Arsenic Removal from Water: Preparation and Evaluation of Its Properties

Polysulfone (PSf) mixed matrix membranes were prepared by embedding pristine montmorillonite (Mt) together with amino acid (M-AA)-modified Mt in order to remove arsenic from water. The qualitative and quantitative comparisons were made between mixed matrix membranes and pure PSf membrane by FE-SEM, XRD, contact angle, AFM, pure water flux (PWF) and mechanical strength tests. The XRD and FTIR results showed that Mt was successfully modified with amino acid, and the amino functional groups were protonated. After modification with amino acid, the Zeta potential of Mt changed from negative to positive. Maximum improvement in PWF, porosity and hydrophilicity was obtained for PSf/Mt mixed matrix membrane due to hydrophilic properties of Mt. However, the modified Mt showed good interaction with PSf and increased the mechanical strength of mixed matrix membranes. Furthermore, the adsorption experiments showed the PSf/M-AA membranes with better arsenic removal efficiency because of positive surface charge of M-AA. The obtained results showed that by increasing M-AA content from 0 to 1.5 wt%, pure water flflux, surface hydrophilicity, roughness, mechanical strength and arsenic adsorption capacity of the membranes increased. The neat PSf membrane showed a very low adsorption capacity for As (V), however the adsorption capacities of 1.4 and 16 mg/g were obtained for the mixed matrix membranes each containing 1.5 wt% of Mt and M-AA. Finally, membrane re-usability of the 1.5 wt% M-AA embedded PSf membrane was assessed by conducting five cycles of adsorption experiments and membrane regeneration in a dead-end filtration system. The obtained results confirmed the applicability of the prepared membrane for multiple cycles