“We want our freedom back, that’s our only need”: a qualitative study of health and social needs among asylum seekers and undocumented migrants crossing the borders from Belarus to Lithuania

BackgroundThe influx of undocumented migrants and asylum seekers into Lithuania, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, presents unique public health challenges. This study employs the Social Determinants of Health framework to explore the healthcare and social needs of this vulnerable population.MethodsIn May 2022, we carried out a qualitative study through semi-structured interviews with asylum seekers across four centers in Lithuania. Employing both purposive and snowball sampling techniques, we selected participants for our investigation. The study comprised 21 interviews—19 conducted in Arabic and 2 in English—with durations ranging between 20 and 40 min each. We audio-recorded all interviews, transcribed them verbatim, and subsequently performed a thematic analysis using Atlas.ti software. This process of design and analysis strictly followed the principles of thematic analysis as outlined by Braun and Clarke, guaranteeing methodological precision and rigor.Findings21 interviews revealed critical insights into the healthcare access challenges, mental health issues, and social integration barriers faced by the participants. Key themes included ‘Healthcare Needs and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic ‘and ‘Social needs and Aspirations Amidst Pandemic-Induced Uncertainty ‘. The findings highlight the multifaceted healthcare and social needs of asylum seekers, juxtaposed against significant barriers they face. Access to medical services is hindered by long waiting times and financial constraints, especially for specialized care such as dental services. Communication issues during medical appointments due to language barriers and the lack of gender-specific healthcare, such as access to gynecological services, further exacerbate the challenges. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic introduces hurdles such as limited testing, isolation measures, language-specific information barriers, and insufficient social distancing practices. Mental health has emerged as a critical concern, with asylum seekers reporting significant stress and emotional exhaustion due to uncertainty and restrictive living conditions. Social needs extend to delayed asylum application processes, inconsistent language education opportunities, inadequate clothing, and nutrition that lacks cultural sensitivity, and living conditions characterized by overcrowding and insufficient facilities. The restricted freedom of movement within asylum seeking centres severely impacts their psychological well-being, underscoring a deep longing for autonomy and a better life despite the myriad of challenges faced.DiscussionThe study illustrates the complex interplay between migration, health, and social factors in the context of a global pandemic. It highlights the need for culturally sensitive healthcare services, mental health support, and structured language education programs. Offering educational avenues alongside language courses for children and adults is essential for fostering social inclusion and securing economic prosperity. Addressing the challenge of language barriers is of utmost importance, as these barriers significantly impede undocumented migrants’ and asylum seekers employment opportunities and their access to crucial services. The findings emphasized immigration as a health determinant and underscored the importance of inclusive health policies and advocacy for undocumented migrants and asylum seekers’ rights and needs.ConclusionThere is an urgent need for comprehensive policies and practices that are grounded in the principles of equity, compassion, and human rights. Additionally, advocating for practice adaptations that are culturally sensitive, linguistically inclusive, and responsive to the unique challenges faced by undocumented migrants and asylum seekers. As global migration continues to rise, these findings are crucial for informing public health strategies and social services that cater to the diverse needs of this vulnerable population

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Table_2_Health and well-being of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons under COVID-19: a scoping review.DOCX

ObjectivesThe objective of this scoping review was to identify what is known about the impact of COVID-19 on the physical and mental well-being of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons. The aim was also to identify barriers influencing access to treatment or prevention.MethodsThe search was conducted using PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, and ScienceDirect. A mixed methods appraisal tool was used to assess methodological rigor. The study findings were synthesized using a thematic analysis approach.Results and DiscussionThis review comprised 24 studies and were conducted utilizing a mixed method approach incorporating both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Two major themes were identified related to the impact of COVID-19 on the health and wellbeing of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons and the key barriers influencing access to treatment or prevention of COVID-19. They often have barriers to accessing healthcare due to their legal status, language barriers, and limited resources. The pandemic has further strained already limited health resources, making it even more challenging for these populations to receive healthcare. This review reveals that refugees and asylum seekers in receiving facilities face a higher risk of COVID-19 infection than the general population due to their less favorable living conditions. The various health impacts stem from a lack of access to accurate information about the pandemic, misinformation, and the exacerbation of pre-existing mental health issues caused by heightened stress, anxiety, and uncertainty, fear of deportation among undocumented migrants, and overcrowding camps and detention facilities that increase exposure risk. Social distancing measures are difficult to implement in these settings, and inadequate sanitation, hygiene, and a lack of personal protective equipment further compound the problem. Moreover, the pandemic has had significant economic consequences for these populations. Many of them rely on informal or precarious employment, which has been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Job losses and reduced working hours, and limited access to social protection can lead to increased poverty, and food insecurity. Children faced specific challenges, such as disruptions to education, additionally, interruptions in support services for pregnant women. Some pregnant women have avoided seeking maternity care due to fears of contracting COVID-19, resulting in increased home births and delays in accessing healthcare services. Factors that play a role in vaccination reluctance include uncertainty of undocumented migrants’ inclusion in vaccination programs, furthermore, a growing vaccine hesitancy in the population; skepticism about the safety of vaccines, inadequate knowledge/education, a variety of access barriers such as language barriers, and logistical challenges including remote locations, and inaccurate information.ConclusionThis review highlights that the physical health of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons has been significantly impacted by various barriers to healthcare access during the pandemic. These barriers include legal and administrative challenges, such as a lack of documentation. Additionally, the shift to digital tools has introduced new obstacles, not only due to language barriers or limited technical knowledge but also because of structural barriers, such as the requirement of a bank ID that is often inaccessible to these groups. Other factors contributing to limited healthcare access include financial constraints, language barriers, and discrimination. Additionally, limited access to accurate information about health services, prevention measures, and available resources may hinder them from seeking care or following public health guidelines. Misinformation and lack of trust in healthcare systems can also contribute to a reluctance to access care or vaccination programs. There is concerning evidence regarding vaccine hesitancy that needs to be addressed to reduce any future pandemic outbreak, in addition there is a need to explore the factors that play a role in vaccination reluctance among children in these populations.</p

Table_3_Health and well-being of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons under COVID-19: a scoping review.DOCX

ObjectivesThe objective of this scoping review was to identify what is known about the impact of COVID-19 on the physical and mental well-being of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons. The aim was also to identify barriers influencing access to treatment or prevention.MethodsThe search was conducted using PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, and ScienceDirect. A mixed methods appraisal tool was used to assess methodological rigor. The study findings were synthesized using a thematic analysis approach.Results and DiscussionThis review comprised 24 studies and were conducted utilizing a mixed method approach incorporating both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Two major themes were identified related to the impact of COVID-19 on the health and wellbeing of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons and the key barriers influencing access to treatment or prevention of COVID-19. They often have barriers to accessing healthcare due to their legal status, language barriers, and limited resources. The pandemic has further strained already limited health resources, making it even more challenging for these populations to receive healthcare. This review reveals that refugees and asylum seekers in receiving facilities face a higher risk of COVID-19 infection than the general population due to their less favorable living conditions. The various health impacts stem from a lack of access to accurate information about the pandemic, misinformation, and the exacerbation of pre-existing mental health issues caused by heightened stress, anxiety, and uncertainty, fear of deportation among undocumented migrants, and overcrowding camps and detention facilities that increase exposure risk. Social distancing measures are difficult to implement in these settings, and inadequate sanitation, hygiene, and a lack of personal protective equipment further compound the problem. Moreover, the pandemic has had significant economic consequences for these populations. Many of them rely on informal or precarious employment, which has been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Job losses and reduced working hours, and limited access to social protection can lead to increased poverty, and food insecurity. Children faced specific challenges, such as disruptions to education, additionally, interruptions in support services for pregnant women. Some pregnant women have avoided seeking maternity care due to fears of contracting COVID-19, resulting in increased home births and delays in accessing healthcare services. Factors that play a role in vaccination reluctance include uncertainty of undocumented migrants’ inclusion in vaccination programs, furthermore, a growing vaccine hesitancy in the population; skepticism about the safety of vaccines, inadequate knowledge/education, a variety of access barriers such as language barriers, and logistical challenges including remote locations, and inaccurate information.ConclusionThis review highlights that the physical health of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons has been significantly impacted by various barriers to healthcare access during the pandemic. These barriers include legal and administrative challenges, such as a lack of documentation. Additionally, the shift to digital tools has introduced new obstacles, not only due to language barriers or limited technical knowledge but also because of structural barriers, such as the requirement of a bank ID that is often inaccessible to these groups. Other factors contributing to limited healthcare access include financial constraints, language barriers, and discrimination. Additionally, limited access to accurate information about health services, prevention measures, and available resources may hinder them from seeking care or following public health guidelines. Misinformation and lack of trust in healthcare systems can also contribute to a reluctance to access care or vaccination programs. There is concerning evidence regarding vaccine hesitancy that needs to be addressed to reduce any future pandemic outbreak, in addition there is a need to explore the factors that play a role in vaccination reluctance among children in these populations.</p

Table_1_Health and well-being of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons under COVID-19: a scoping review.DOCX

ObjectivesThe objective of this scoping review was to identify what is known about the impact of COVID-19 on the physical and mental well-being of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons. The aim was also to identify barriers influencing access to treatment or prevention.MethodsThe search was conducted using PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, and ScienceDirect. A mixed methods appraisal tool was used to assess methodological rigor. The study findings were synthesized using a thematic analysis approach.Results and DiscussionThis review comprised 24 studies and were conducted utilizing a mixed method approach incorporating both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Two major themes were identified related to the impact of COVID-19 on the health and wellbeing of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons and the key barriers influencing access to treatment or prevention of COVID-19. They often have barriers to accessing healthcare due to their legal status, language barriers, and limited resources. The pandemic has further strained already limited health resources, making it even more challenging for these populations to receive healthcare. This review reveals that refugees and asylum seekers in receiving facilities face a higher risk of COVID-19 infection than the general population due to their less favorable living conditions. The various health impacts stem from a lack of access to accurate information about the pandemic, misinformation, and the exacerbation of pre-existing mental health issues caused by heightened stress, anxiety, and uncertainty, fear of deportation among undocumented migrants, and overcrowding camps and detention facilities that increase exposure risk. Social distancing measures are difficult to implement in these settings, and inadequate sanitation, hygiene, and a lack of personal protective equipment further compound the problem. Moreover, the pandemic has had significant economic consequences for these populations. Many of them rely on informal or precarious employment, which has been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Job losses and reduced working hours, and limited access to social protection can lead to increased poverty, and food insecurity. Children faced specific challenges, such as disruptions to education, additionally, interruptions in support services for pregnant women. Some pregnant women have avoided seeking maternity care due to fears of contracting COVID-19, resulting in increased home births and delays in accessing healthcare services. Factors that play a role in vaccination reluctance include uncertainty of undocumented migrants’ inclusion in vaccination programs, furthermore, a growing vaccine hesitancy in the population; skepticism about the safety of vaccines, inadequate knowledge/education, a variety of access barriers such as language barriers, and logistical challenges including remote locations, and inaccurate information.ConclusionThis review highlights that the physical health of refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and internally displaced persons has been significantly impacted by various barriers to healthcare access during the pandemic. These barriers include legal and administrative challenges, such as a lack of documentation. Additionally, the shift to digital tools has introduced new obstacles, not only due to language barriers or limited technical knowledge but also because of structural barriers, such as the requirement of a bank ID that is often inaccessible to these groups. Other factors contributing to limited healthcare access include financial constraints, language barriers, and discrimination. Additionally, limited access to accurate information about health services, prevention measures, and available resources may hinder them from seeking care or following public health guidelines. Misinformation and lack of trust in healthcare systems can also contribute to a reluctance to access care or vaccination programs. There is concerning evidence regarding vaccine hesitancy that needs to be addressed to reduce any future pandemic outbreak, in addition there is a need to explore the factors that play a role in vaccination reluctance among children in these populations.</p

Cultural competency among Lithuanian nurses and preparedness to work with intercultural immigrants: a quantitative study protocol

Introduction: Health care providers are increasingly required to provide care to patients from diverse cultural backgrounds. A culturally competent approach could be used to address gaps in the health care of migrants, whether they are refugees, asylum seekers, or undocumented migrants. From June 2021 onward, there are estimated to be 4,300 asylum seekers in Lithuania who crossed the Belarusian border. Furthermore, ~65 thousand Ukrainians registered within 6 months of the beginning of the war on 24 February 2022. Aim: To determine the cultural competence of Lithuanian nurses using the Nurse Cultural Competence Scale (NCCS) questionnaire. Methods: A quantitative study evaluating the cultural competency of nursing professionals will be conducted using the Lithuanian version of the Nurse Cultural Competence Scale (NCCS). The study will be conducted in Lithuanian municipalities and will involve primary, secondary, and tertiary health care providers. Discussion: This study will provide data that can guide the development and evaluation of interventions designed to reduce health disparities among migrants, including the need to identify the appropriate type of cultural competency training for nurses. In addition to the results of this study, it may provide an indication of other cultural competency required for nurses. This includes consideration of religion, sexual orientation, gender identity, household classifications on the basis of urban vs. rural areas, language spoken, and country of origin

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p