Comparing Extant Story Classifiers: Results & New Directions

Having access to a large set of stories is a necessary first step for robust and wide-ranging computational narrative modeling; happily, language data - including stories - are increasingly available in electronic form. Unhappily, the process of automatically separating stories from other forms of written discourse is not straightforward, and has resulted in a data collection bottleneck. Therefore researchers have sought to develop reliable, robust automatic algorithms for identifying story text mixed with other non-story text. In this paper we report on the reimplementation and experimental comparison of the two approaches to this task: Gordon\u27s unigram classifier, and Corman\u27s semantic triplet classifier. We cross-analyze their performance on both Gordon\u27s and Corman\u27s corpora, and discuss similarities, differences, and gaps in the performance of these classifiers, and point the way forward to improving their approaches

Generative modeling of the enteric nervous system employing point pattern analysis and graph construction

We describe a generative network model of the architecture of the enteric nervous system (ENS) in the colon employing data from images of human and mouse tissue samples obtained through confocal microscopy. Our models combine spatial point pattern analysis with graph generation to characterize the spatial and topological properties of the ganglia (clusters of neurons and glial cells), the inter-ganglionic connections, and the neuronal organization within the ganglia. We employ a hybrid hardcore-Strauss process for spatial patterns and a planar random graph generation for constructing the spatially embedded network. We show that our generative model may be helpful in both basic and translational studies, and it is sufficiently expressive to model the ENS architecture of individuals who vary in age and health status. Increased understanding of the ENS connectome will enable the use of neuromodulation strategies in treatment and clarify anatomic diagnostic criteria for people with bowel motility disorders.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure

Petition for Rulemaking on Short and Distort

Today, some hedge funds attack public companies for the sole purpose of inducing a short-lived panic which they can exploit for profit. This sort of market manipulation harms average investors who entrust financial markets with their retirement savings. While short selling serves a critical function in the capital markets, some short sellers disseminate negative opinion about a company, inducing a panic and sharp decline in the stock price, and rapidly close that position for a profit prior to the price partially or fully rebounding. We urge the SEC to enact two rules which will discourage manipulative short selling. The petition for rule-making on short and distort has been jointly signed by twelve securities law professors nationwide

A Novel 3-Hydroxysteroid Dehydrogenase That Regulates Reproductive Development and Longevity

A multidisciplinary approach identifies novel biochemical activities involved in the synthesisof C. elegans bile acid-like steroids, which act as hormones that regulate sterol metabolism and longevity

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages