Non-additive beliefs and game theory

Probability;Game Theory;Uncertainty

Choice under Uncertainty with the Best and Worst in Mind: Neo-additive Capacities

The concept of a non-extreme-outcome-additive capacity (neo-additive capacity ) is introduced. Neo-additive capacities model optimistic and pessimistic attitudes towards uncertainty as observed in many experimental studies. Moreover, neo-additive capacities can be applied easily in economic problems, as we demonstrate by examples. This paper provides an axiomatisation of Choquet expected utility with neo-capacities in a framework of purely subjective uncertainty.

Sequential two-player games with ambiguity

Author's pre-printIf players' beliefs are strictly nonadditive, the Dempster–Shafer updating rule can be used to define beliefs off the equilibrium path. We define an equilibrium concept in sequential two-person games where players update their beliefs with the Dempster–Shafer updating rule. We show that in the limit as uncertainty tends to zero, our equilibrium approximates Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We argue that our equilibrium can be used to define a refinement of Bayesian Nash equilibrium by imposing context-dependent constraints on beliefs under uncertainty.ESRC senior research fellowship scheme, H5242750259

Evidence for a Peierls phase-transition in a three-dimensional multiple charge-density waves solid

The effect of dimensionality on materials properties has become strikingly evident with the recent discovery of graphene. Charge ordering phenomena can be induced in one dimension by periodic distortions of a material's crystal structure, termed Peierls ordering transition. Charge-density waves can also be induced in solids by strong Coulomb repulsion between carriers, and at the extreme limit, Wigner predicted that crystallization itself can be induced in an electrons gas in free space close to the absolute zero of temperature. Similar phenomena are observed also in higher dimensions, but the microscopic description of the corresponding phase transition is often controversial, and remains an open field of research for fundamental physics. Here, we photoinduce the melting of the charge ordering in a complex three-dimensional solid and monitor the consequent charge redistribution by probing the optical response over a broad spectral range with ultrashort laser pulses. Although the photoinduced electronic temperature far exceeds the critical value, the charge-density wave is preserved until the lattice is sufficiently distorted to induce the phase transition. Combining this result with it ab initio} electronic structure calculations, we identified the Peierls origin of multiple charge-density waves in a three-dimensional system for the first time.Comment: Accepted for publication in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. US

Information and ambiguity: herd and contrarian behaviour in financial markets

“The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11238-012-9334-3”The paper studies the impact of informational ambiguity on behalf of informed traders on history-dependent price behaviour in a model of sequential trading in nancial markets. Following Chateauneuf, Eichberger and Grant (2006), we use neo-additive capacities to model ambiguity. Such ambiguity and attitudes to it can engender herd and contrarian behaviour, and also cause the market to break down. The latter, herd and contrarian behaviour, can be reduced by the existence of a bid-ask spread.Research in part funded by ESRC grant RES-000-22-0650