No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election

After the 2020 US presidential election Donald Trump refused to concede, alleging widespread and unparalleled voter fraud. Trump's supporters deployed several statistical arguments in an attempt to cast doubt on the result. Reviewing the most prominent of these statistical claims, we conclude that none of them is even remotely convincing. The common logic behind these claims is that, if the election were fairly conducted, some feature of the observed 2020 election result would be unlikely or impossible. In each case, we find that the purportedly anomalous fact is either not a fact or not anomalous. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Placebo Tests for Causal Inference

Placebo tests are increasingly common in applied social science research, but the methodological literature has not previously offered a comprehensive account of what we learn from them. We define placebo tests as tools for assessing the plausibility of the assumptions underlying a research design relative to some departure from those assumptions. We offer a typology of tests defined by the aspect of the research design that is altered to produce it (outcome, treatment, or population) and the type of assumption that is tested (bias assumptions or distributional assumptions). Our formal framework clarifies the extra assumptions necessary for informative placebo tests; these assumptions can be strong, and in some cases similar assumptions would justify a different procedure allowing the researcher to relax the research design's assumptions rather than test them. Properly designed and interpreted, placebo tests can be an important device for assessing the credibility of empirical research designs

Rapid high-throughput analysis of DNaseI hypersensitive sites using a modified Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification approach

BACKGROUND: Mapping DNaseI hypersensitive sites is commonly used to identify regulatory regions in the genome. However, currently available methods are either time consuming and laborious, expensive or require large numbers of cells. We aimed to develop a quick and straightforward method for the analysis of DNaseI hypersensitive sites that overcomes these problems. RESULTS: We have developed a modified Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA) approach for the identification and analysis of genomic regulatory regions. The utility of this approach was demonstrated by simultaneously analysing 20 loci from the ENCODE project for DNaseI hypersensitivity in a range of different cell lines. We were able to obtain reproducible results with as little as 5 x 10(4) cells per DNaseI treatment. Our results broadly matched those previously reported by the ENCODE project, and both technical and biological replicates showed high correlations, indicating the sensitivity and reproducibility of this method. CONCLUSION: This new method will considerably facilitate the identification and analysis of DNaseI hypersensitive sites. Due to the multiplexing potential of MLPA (up to 50 loci can be examined) it is possible to analyse dozens of DNaseI hypersensitive sites in a single reaction. Furthermore, the high sensitivity of MLPA means that fewer than 10(5) cells per DNaseI treatment can be used, allowing the discovery and analysis of tissue specific regulatory regions without the need for pooling. This method is quick and easy and results can be obtained within 48 hours after harvesting of cells or tissues. As no special equipment is required, this method can be applied by any laboratory interested in the analysis of DNaseI hypersensitive regions

Simulating counterfactual representation

We show how to use multilevel modeling and post-stratification to estimate legislative outcomes under counterfactual representation schemes that, for example, boost the representation of women or translate votes into seats differently. We apply this technique to two research questions: (1) Would the U.S. Congress be less polarized if state delegations were formed according to the principle of party proportional representation? (2) Would there have been stronger support for legalizing same-sex marriage in the U.K. House of Commons if Parliament more closely reflected the population in gender and age

The effect of substrate roughness on air entrainment in dip coating

YesDynamic wetting failure was observed in the simple dip coating flow with a series of substrates, which had a rough side and a comparatively smoother side. When we compared the air entrainment speeds on both sides, we found a switch in behaviour at a critical viscosity. At viscosity lower than a critical value, the rough side entrained air at lower speeds than the smooth side. Above the critical viscosity the reverse was observed, the smooth side entraining air at lower speed than the rough side. Only substrates with significant roughness showed this behaviour. Below a critical roughness, the rough side always entrained air at lower speeds than the smooth side. These results have both fundamental and practical merits. They support the hydrodynamic theory of dynamic wetting failure and imply that one can coat viscous fluids at higher speeds than normal by roughening substrates. A mechanism and a model are presented to explain dynamic wetting failure on rough surfaces

Increased proinflammatory endothelial response to S100A8/A9 after preactivation through advanced glycation end products

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory disease in which a perpetuated activation of NFkappaB via the RAGE (receptor for advanced glycation end products)-MAPK signalling pathway may play an important pathogenetic role. As recently S100 proteins have been identified as ligands of RAGE, we sought to determine the effects of the proinflammatory heterodimer of S100A8/S100A9 on the RAGE-NFkappaB mediated induction of proinflammatory gene expression. METHODS: Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) were preincubated for 72 h with AGE-albumin or unmodified albumin for control, whereas AGE-albumin induction resulted in an upregulation of RAGE. Following this preactivation, cells were stimulated for 48 h with heterodimeric human recombinant S100A8/S100A9. RESULTS: Heterodimeric S100A8/S100A9 enhanced secretion of IL-6, ICAM-1, VCAM-1 and MCP1 in AGE-albumin pretreated HUVEC in a dose dependent manner. These effects could not be detected after stimulation with the homodimeric proteins S100A8, S100A9, S100A1 and S100B. The effects of heterodimeric S100A8/S100A9 were reduced by inhibition of the MAP-kinase pathways ERK1/2 and p38 by PD 98059 and SB 203580, respectively. CONCLUSION: The heterodimeric S100A8/S100A9 might therefore play a hitherto unknown role in triggering atherosclerosis in diabetes and renal failure, pathophysiological entities associated with a high AGE burden. Thus, blocking heterodimeric S100A8/S100A9 might represent a novel therapeutic modality in treating atherosclerosis

Sex differences in investigations and outcomes among patients with type 2 myocardial infarction

Objectives: Type 2 myocardial infarction (MI) is a heterogenous condition and whether there are differences between women and men is unknown. We evaluated sex differences in clinical characteristics, investigations and outcomes in patients with type 2 MI. Methods: In the Swedish Web based system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART) registry, we compared patients admitted to coronary care units with a diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 MI. Sex-stratified Cox regression models evaluated the association with all-cause death in men and women separately. Results: We included 57 264 (median age 73 years, 65% men) and 6485 (median age 78 years, 50% men) patients with type 1 and type 2 MI, respectively. No differences were observed in the proportion of men and women with type 2 MI who underwent echocardiography and coronary angiography, but women were less likely than men to have left ventricular (LV) impairment and obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Compared with type 1 MI, patients with type 2 MI had higher risk of death regardless of sex (men: adjusted HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.44 to 1.67); women: adjusted HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.45)). In those with type 2 MI, the risk of death was lower for women than men (adjusted HR 0.85 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.92) (men, reference)). Conclusions: Type 2 MI occurred in men and women equally and we found no evidence of sex bias in the selection of patients for cardiac investigations. Patients with type 2 MI had worse outcomes, but women were less likely to have obstructive CAD or severe LV impairment and were more likely to survive than men

Whole exome sequencing combined with linkage analysis identifies a novel 3 bp deletion in NR5A1

Disorders of sex development (DSDs) encompass a broad spectrum of conditions affecting the development of the gonads and genitalia. The underlying causes for DSDs include gain or loss of function variants in genes responsible for gonad development or steroidogenesis. Most patients with DSD have an unknown genetic etiology and cannot be given an