Criticality and finite size effects in a simple realistic model of stock market

We discuss a simple model based on the Minority Game which reproduces the main stylized facts of anomalous fluctuations in finance. We present the analytic solution of the model in the thermodynamic limit and show that stylized facts arise only close to a line of critical points with non-trivial properties. By a simple argument, we show that, in Minority Games, the emergence of critical fluctuations close to the phase transition is governed by the interplay between the signal to noise ratio and the system size. These results provide a clear and consistent picture of financial markets as critical systems.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Volatility clustering and scaling for financial time series due to attractor bubbling

A microscopic model of financial markets is considered, consisting of many interacting agents (spins) with global coupling and discrete-time thermal bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. The interactions between agents change randomly in time. In the thermodynamic limit the obtained time series of price returns show chaotic bursts resulting from the emergence of attractor bubbling or on-off intermittency, resembling the empirical financial time series with volatility clustering. For a proper choice of the model parameters the probability distributions of returns exhibit power-law tails with scaling exponents close to the empirical ones.Comment: For related publications see http://www.helbing.or

Architecture and Gender : Lessons from Building Archaeology in Africa

Peer reviewe

Glacial history affected phenotypic differentiation in the Alpine plant Campanula thyrsoides

Numerous widespread Alpine plant species show molecular differentiation among populations from distinct regions. This has been explained as the result of genetic drift during glacial survival in isolated refugia along the border of the European Alps. Since genetic drift may affect molecular markers and phenotypic traits alike, we asked whether phenotypic differentiation mirrors molecular patterns among Alpine plant populations from different regions. Phenotypic traits can be under selection, so we additionally investigated whether part of the phenotypic differentiation can be explained by past selection and/or current adaptation. Using the monocarpic Campanula thyrsoides as our study species, a common garden experiment with plants from 21 populations from four phylogeographic groups located in regions across the Alps and the Jura Mountains was performed to test for differentiation in morphological and phenological traits. Past selection was investigated by comparing phenotypic differentiation among and within regions with molecular differentiation among and within regions. The common garden results indicated regional differentiation among populations for all investigated phenotypic traits, particularly in phenology. Delayed flowering in plants from the South-eastern Alps suggested adaptation to long sub-mediterranean summers and contrasted with earlier flowering of plants experiencing shorter growing seasons in regions with higher elevation to the West. Comparisons between molecular and phenotypic differentiation revealed diversifying selection among regions in height and biomass, which is consistent with adaptation to environmental conditions in glacial refugia. Within regions, past selection acted against strong diversification for most phenotypic traits, causing restricted postglacial adaptation. Evidence consistent with post-glacial adaptation was also given by negative correlation coefficients between several phenotypic traits and elevation of the population's origin. In conclusion, our study suggests that, irrespective of adaptation of plants to their current environment, glacial history can have a strong and long-lasting influence on the phenotypic evolution of Alpine plants

Response of a subalpine grassland to simulated grazing : aboveground produvctivity along phosphorous gradients

Interactions between grassland ecosystems and vertebrate herbivores are critical for a better understanding of ecosystem processes, but diverge widely in different ecosystems. In this study, we examined plant responses to simulated red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) grazing using clip-plot experiments in a subalpine grassland ecosystem of the Central European Alps. We measured aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and phosphorus (P) concentration of leaf tissue from plants of two vegetation types with different grazing history. The experimental plots were placed on a soil-P gradient and subject to two different clipping treatments, which simulated moderate and heavy grazing, respectively. We found distinct differences in the response of both ANPP and P concentration in leaf tissues in the two vegetation types. Compared to moderate, heavy grazing simulation did not affect ANPP in the vegetation type adapted to grazing, but decreased ANPP in the non-grazing adapted vegetation type. High soil-P levels also had different effects on the response of the vegetation to clipping in the two vegetation types with different grazing history. ANPP correlated positively with soil-P in non-grazing adapted tall-grass vegetation, while in grazing adapted short-grass vegetation a positive relationship between soil-P and the P concentration in leaf tissues was found. Our experiments provide data for a better understanding of ecosystem processes in high-elevation grasslands of the Alps with possible implications for both nature conservation purposes in protected areas and the management of agriculturally used grasslands

Response of a subalpine grassland to simulated grazing: aboveground productivity along soil phosphorus gradients

Interactions between grassland ecosystems and vertebrate herbivores are critical for a better understanding of ecosystem processes, but diverge widely in different ecosystems. In this study, we examined plant responses to simulated red deer ( Cervus elaphus L.) grazing using clip-plot experiments in a subalpine grassland ecosystem of the Central European Alps. We measured aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and phosphorus (P) concentration of leaf tissue from plants of two vegetation types with different grazing history. The experimental plots were placed on a soil-P gradient and subject to two different clipping treatments, which simulated moderate and heavy grazing, respectively. We found distinct differences in the response of both ANPP and P concentration in leaf tissues in the two vegetation types. Compared to moderate, heavy grazing simulation did not affect ANPP in the vegetation type adapted to grazing, but decreased ANPP in the non-grazing adapted vegetation type. High soil-P levels also had different effects on the response of the vegetation to clipping in the two vegetation types with different grazing history. ANPP correlated positively with soil-P in non-grazing adapted tall-grass vegetation, while in grazing adapted short-grass vegetation a positive relationship between soil-P and the P concentration in leaf tissues was found. Our experiments provide data for a better understanding of ecosystem processes in high-elevation grasslands of the Alps with possible implications for both nature conservation purposes in protected areas and the management of agriculturally used grasslands

Phosphorus translocation by red deer on a subalpine grassland in the Central European Alps

ISSN:1432-9840ISSN:1435-062

Differentiation in morphology and flowering phenology between two Campanula thyrsoides L. subspecies

Subspecies are usually characterized by sets of morphological discontinuities. By means of common garden experiments, we investigated genetic differentiation in morphological and phenological traits in two geographically disjunct subspecies of Campanula thyrsoides L., i.e. subsp. thyrsoides (= C.* thyrsoides) occurring in the European Alps and Jura Mountains, and subsp. carniolica (= C.* carniolica) occurring in the Southeastern Alps and the Dinaric Arc. Nine out of 16 investigated traits were significantly different between C.* thyrsoides and C.* carniolica. For C.* carniolica inflorescence length was 1.4×, and above-ground biomass 2.7× higher, while flower density was significantly lower. Campanula* carniolica also showed delayed flowering and flower development from bottom to top compared to C.* thyrsoides which flowered from top to bottom. The inflorescence growth was indeterminate and flowering took several weeks in C.* carniolica, whereas C.* thyrsoides showed determinate flowering, rapidly opening all flowers within a few days. This differentiation in flowering phenology is likely to be adaptive. The submediterranean climate favours indeterminate flowering in C.* carniolica, allowing ongoing growth of the inflorescence throughout the long summer until environmental conditions worsen, whereas determinate and early flowering in C.* thyrsoides is favourable in the short growing season in the high Alps where seed production must be secured before temperature drops. Glacial survival in refugia with different climates (alpine vs. submediterranean) may have caused this regional differentiation