Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least 3–4 C warmer than preindustrial (CO2 280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as “Warmer than Present Transients” (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations precedingWPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming

A model-based constraint on CO2 fertilisation

We derive a constraint on the strength of CO2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a "top-down" approach, calibrating Earth system model parameters constrained by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilisation in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO2 enrichment experiments. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorporation of a land use change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE Earth system model. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations, we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration change since the preindustrial period. We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial values is very likely (90% confidence) to exceed 20%, with a most likely value of 40–60%. It is important to note that we do not represent all of the possible contributing mechanisms to the terrestrial sink. The missing processes are subsumed into our calibration of CO2 fertilisation, which therefore represents the combined effect of CO2 fertilisation and additional missing processes. If the missing processes are a net sink then our estimate represents an upper bound. We derive calibrated estimates of carbon fluxes that are consistent with existing estimates. The present-day land–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −0.7 GTC yr−1 (likely, 66% confidence, in the range 0.4 to −1.7 GTC yr−1). The present-day ocean–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated to be −2.3 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range −1.8 to −2.7 GTC yr−1). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO2 fertilisation and climate sinks) to be 66 GTC, likely to lie in the range 0 to 128 GTC

Sedimentology and kinematics of a large, retrogressive growth-fault system in Upper Carboniferous deltaic sediments, western Ireland

Growth faulting is a common feature of many deltaic environments and is vital in determining local sediment dispersal and accumulation, and hence in controlling the resultant sedimentary facies distribution and architecture. Growth faults occur on a range of scales, from a few centimetres to hundreds of metres, with the largest growth faults frequently being under-represented in outcrops that are often smaller than the scale of feature under investigation. This paper presents data from the exceptionally large outcrops of the Cliffs of Moher, western Ireland, where a growth-fault complex affects strata up to 60 m in thickness and extends laterally for 3 km. Study of this Namurian (Upper Carboniferous) growth-fault system enables the relationship between growth faulting and sedimentation to be detailed and permits reconstruction of the kinematic history of faulting. Growth faulting was initiated with the onset of sandstone deposition on a succession of silty mudstones that overlie a thin, marine shale. The decollement horizon developed at the top of the marine shale contact for the first nine faults, by which time aggradation in the hangingwall exceeded 60 m in thickness. After this time, failure planes developed at higher stratigraphic levels and were associated with smaller scale faults. The fault complex shows a dominantly landward retrogressive movement, in which only one fault was largely active at any one time. There is no evidence of compressional features at the base of the growth faults, thus suggesting open-ended slides, and the faults display both disintegrative and non-disintegrative structure. Thin-bedded, distal mouth bar facies dominate the hangingwall stratigraphy and, in the final stages of growth-fault movement, erosion of the crests of rollover structures resulted in the highest strata being restricted to the proximity of the fault. These upper erosion surfaces on the fault scarp developed erosive chutes that were cut parallel to flow and are downlapped by the distal hangingwall strata of younger growth faults

Temperature Range Shifts for Three European Tree Species over the Last 10,000 Years.

We quantified the degree to which the relationship between the geographic distribution of three major European tree species, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies and January temperature (Tjan) has remained stable over the past 10,000 years. We used an extended data-set of fossil pollen records over Europe to reconstruct spatial variation in Tjan values for each 1000-year time slice between 10,000 and 3000 years BP (before present). We evaluated the relationships between the occurrences of the three species at each time slice and the spatially interpolated Tjan values, and compared these to their modern temperature ranges. Our results reveal that F. sylvatica and P. abies experienced Tjan ranges during the Holocene that differ from those of the present, while A. alba occurred over a Tjan range that is comparable to its modern one. Our data suggest the need for re-evaluation of the assumption of stable climate tolerances at a scale of several thousand years. The temperature range instability in our observed data independently validates similar results based exclusively on modeled Holocene temperatures. Our study complements previous studies that used modeled data by identifying variation in frequencies of occurrence of populations within the limits of suitable climate. However, substantial changes that were observed in the realized thermal niches over the Holocene tend to suggest that predicting future species distributions should not solely be based on modern realized niches, and needs to account for the past variation in the climate variables that drive species ranges

ESTABLISHING A PLATFORM FOR SPRAY DRYING INHALABLE VACCINES IN SOUTH AFRICA

Mycobacterium bovis BCG is the current vaccine for tuberculosis (TB). However, BCG as it is currently administered shows highly variable efficacy in protecting adults against TB. The natural route of infection of TB is via inhalation of bacilli-containing aerosols and it is postulated that immunization by the natural route of infection may lead to a greater immunity given the fact that the lungs are the primary target of infection. By eliciting both local and systemic immune responses, it is anticipated that an inhaled form of BCG will offer greater protection against pulmonary TB. Current commercial BCG vaccine preparations are filled as bacterial suspensions in vials, dried through lyophilization and stabilized through refrigeration with a one year shelf life. However, freeze-dried BCG does not exhibit a particle form conducive for delivery via the aerosol route and must be injected. Spray drying studies by Harvard University and Medicine in Need (MEND) scientists have demonstrated that BCG could be spray dried into a viable aerosol with up to 1 year of stability under refrigerated conditions, with the potential for room temperature stability. To support the further preclinical development of the BCG aerosol for application in the developing world, MEND established a state-of-the-art Biosafety level 3 spray drying facility with local expertise in South Africa, where the vaccine will be produced for an IND-enabling toxicology study meeting OECD Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) requirements. Frozen BCG bulk is spray dried and the resulting dry powder is characterized in terms of viability and aerosol properties. The dried BCG aerosol is then aseptically filled into capsules using a semi-automatic filling device for delivery using a low-cost hand-held inhaler. In conclusion, the spray drying technology was successfully transferred from Harvard University to the MEND facility in Pretoria. MEND is developing local expertise and infrastructure to support further preclinical and clinical development of BCG for inhalation

Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations

The benefits of implementing negative emission technologies in the global warming response to cumulative carbon emissions until the year 2420 are assessed following the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1-2.6, the sustainable development scenario, with a comprehensive set of intermediate-complexity Earth system model integrations. Model integrations include 86 different model realisations covering a wide range of plausible climate states. The global warming response is assessed in terms of two key climate metrics: the effective transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (eTCRE), measuring the surface warming response to cumulative carbon emissions and associated non-CO2 forcing, and the effective zero emissions commitment (eZEC), measuring the extent of any continued warming after net-zero CO2 emissions are reached. The transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) is estimated as 2.2 K EgC−1 (median value) with a 10 %–90 % range of 1.75 to 3.13 K EgC−1 in 2100, approximated from the eTCRE by removing the contribution of non-CO2 forcing. During the positive emission phase, the eTCRE decreases from 2.71 (2.0 to 3.65) to 2.61 (1.91 to 3.62) K EgC−1 due to a weakening in the dependence of radiative forcing on atmospheric carbon, which is partly opposed by an increasing fraction of the radiative forcing warming the surface as the ocean stratifies. During the net negative and zero emission phases, a progressive reduction in the eTCRE to 2.0 (1.39 to 2.96) K EgC−1 is driven by the reducing airborne fraction as atmospheric CO2 is drawn down mainly by the ocean. The model uncertainty in the slopes of warming versus cumulative CO2 emissions varies from being controlled by the radiative feedback parameter during positive emissions to being affected by carbon-cycle parameters during net negative emissions, consistent with the drivers of uncertainty diagnosed from the coefficient of variation of the contributions in the eTCRE framework. The continued warming after CO2 emissions cease and remain at zero gives a model mean eZEC of −0.03 K after 25 years, which decreases in time to −0.21 K at 90 years after emissions cease. However, there is a spread in the ensemble with a temperature overshoot occurring in 20 % of the ensemble members at 25 years after cessation of emissions. If net negative emissions are included, there is a reduction in atmospheric CO2 and there is a decrease in temperature overshoot so that the eZEC is positive in only 5 % of the ensemble members. Hence, incorporating negative emissions enhances the ability to meet climate targets and avoid risk of continued warming after net zero is reached

Are Labour Markets Necessarily Local? Spatiality, Segmentation and Scale

This paper draws on recent debates about scale to approach the geography of labour markets from a dynamic perspective sensitive to the spatiality and scale of labour market restructuring. Its exploration of labour market reconfigurations after the collapse of a major firm (Ansett Airlines) raises questions about geography’s faith in the inherently ‘local’ constitution of labour markets. Through an examination of the job reallocation process after redundancy, the paper suggests that multiple labour markets use and articulate scale in different ways. It argues that labour market rescaling processes are enacted at the critical moment of recruitment, where social networks, personal aspirations and employer preferences combine to shape workers’ destinations

In-canopy gas-phase chemistry during CABINEX 2009: Sensitivity of a 1-D canopy model to vertical mixing and isoprene chemistry

Vegetation emits large quantities of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC). At remote sites, these compounds are the dominant precursors to ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, yet current field studies show that atmospheric models have difficulty in capturing the observed HOx cycle and concentrations of BVOC oxidation products. In this manuscript, we simulate BVOC chemistry within a forest canopy using a one-dimensional canopy-chemistry model (Canopy Atmospheric CHemistry Emission model; CACHE) for a mixed deciduous forest in northern Michigan during the CABINEX 2009 campaign. We find that the base-case model, using fully-parameterized mixing and the simplified biogenic chemistry of the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Model (RACM), underestimates daytime in-canopy vertical mixing by 50–70% and by an order of magnitude at night, leading to discrepancies in the diurnal evolution of HOx, BVOC, and BVOC oxidation products. Implementing observed micrometeorological data from above and within the canopy substantially improves the diurnal cycle of modeled BVOC, particularly at the end of the day, and also improves the observation-model agreement for some BVOC oxidation products and OH reactivity. We compare the RACM mechanism to a version that includes the Mainz isoprene mechanism (RACM-MIM) to test the model sensitivity to enhanced isoprene degradation. RACM-MIM simulates higher concentrations of both primary BVOC (isoprene and monoterpenes) and oxidation products (HCHO, MACR+MVK) compared with RACM simulations. Additionally, the revised mechanism alters the OH concentrations and increases HO2. These changes generally improve agreement with HOx observations yet overestimate BVOC oxidation products, indicating that this isoprene mechanism does not improve the representation of local chemistry at the site. Overall, the revised mechanism yields smaller changes in BVOC and BVOC oxidation product concentrations and gradients than improving the parameterization of vertical mixing with observations, suggesting that uncertainties in vertical mixing parameterizations are an important component in understanding observed BVOC chemistry

Height and risk of death among men and women: aetiological implications of associations with cardiorespiratory disease and cancer mortality

OBJECTIVES: Height is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk and has shown variable associations with cancer incidence and mortality. The interpretation of findings from previous studies has been constrained by data limitations. Associations between height and specific causes of death were investigated in a large general population cohort of men and women from the West of Scotland. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland. SUBJECTS: 7052 men and 8354 women aged 45-64 were recruited into a study in Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland, between 1972 and 1976. Detailed assessments of cardiovascular disease risk factors, morbidity and socioeconomic circumstances were made at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths during 20 years of follow up classified into specific causes. RESULTS: Over the follow up period 3347 men and 2638 women died. Height is inversely associated with all cause, coronary heart disease, stroke, and respiratory disease mortality among men and women. Adjustment for socioeconomic position and cardiovascular risk factors had little influence on these associations. Height is strongly associated with forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and adjustment for FEV1 considerably attenuated the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality. Smoking related cancer mortality is not associated with height. The risk of deaths from cancer unrelated to smoking tended to increase with height, particularly for haematopoietic, colorectal and prostate cancers. Stomach cancer mortality was inversely associated with height. Adjustment for socioeconomic position had little influence on these associations. CONCLUSION: Height serves partly as an indicator of socioeconomic circumstances and nutritional status in childhood and this may underlie the inverse associations between height and adulthood cardiorespiratory mortality. Much of the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality was accounted for by lung function, which is also partly determined by exposures acting in childhood. The inverse association between height and stomach cancer mortality probably reflects Helicobacter pylori infection in childhood resulting inor being associated withshorter height. The positive associations between height and several cancers unrelated to smoking could reflect the influence of calorie intake during childhood on the risk of these cancers

Scaling of the B and D meson spectrum in lattice QCD

We give results for the $B$ and the $D$ meson spectrum using NRQCD on the lattice in the quenched approximation. The masses of radially and orbitally excited states are calculated as well as $S$-wave hyperfine and $P$-wave fine structure. Radially excited $P$-states are observed for the first time. Radial and orbital excitation energies match well to experiment, as does the strange-non-strange $S$-wave splitting. We compare the light and heavy quark mass dependence of various splittings to experiment. Our $B$-results cover a range in lattice spacings of more than a factor of two. Our $D$-results are from a single lattice spacing and we compare them to numbers in the literature from finer lattices using other methods. We see no significant dependence of physical results on the lattice spacing. PACS: 11.15.Ha 12.38.Gc 14.40.Lb 14.40.NdComment: 78 pages, 29 tables, 30 figures Revised version. Minor corrections to spelling and wordin