3,229 research outputs found

    Forecasting with dimension switching VARs

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    This paper develops methods for VAR forecasting when the researcher is uncertain about which variables enter the VAR, and the dimension of the VAR may be changing over time. It considers the case where there are N variables which might potentially enter a VAR and the researcher is interested in forecasting N ∗ of them. Thus, the researcher is faced with 2 N − N ∗ potential VARs. If N is large, conventional Bayesian methods can be infeasible due to the computational burden of dealing with a huge model space. Allowing for the dimension of the VAR to change over time only increases this burden. In light of these considerations, this paper uses computationally practical approximations adapted from the dynamic model averaging literature in order to develop methods for dynamic dimension selection (DDS) in VARs. We then show the benefits of DDS in a macroeconomic forecasting application. In particular, DDS switches between different parsimonious VARs and forecasts appreciably better than various small and large dimensional VARs

    Glimpsing Colour in a World of Black and White

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    The past 40 years have taught us that nucleons are built of constituents that carry colour charges with interactions governed by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). How experiments (past, present and future) at Jefferson Lab probe colourless nuclei to map out these internal colour degrees of freedom is presented. When combined with theoretical calculations, these will paint a picture of how the confinement of quarks and gluons, and the structure of the QCD vacuum, determine the properties of all (light) strongly interacting states.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures. Invited talk at the Rutherford Centennial Conference on Nuclear Physics, University of Manchester, 8-12 August 2011. To appear in the Proceeding

    Power-law rheology in the bulk and at the interface: quasi-properties and fractional constitutive equations

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    Consumer products, such as foods, contain numerous polymeric and particulate additives that play critical roles in maintaining their stability, quality and function. The resulting materials exhibit complex bulk and interfacial rheological responses, and often display a distinctive power-law response under standard rheometric deformations. These power laws are not conveniently described using conventional rheological models, without the introduction of a large number of relaxation modes. We present a constitutive framework using fractional derivatives to model the power-law responses often observed experimentally. We first revisit the concept of quasi-properties and their connection to the fractional Maxwell model (FMM). Using Scott-Blair's original data, we demonstrate the ability of the FMM to capture the power-law response of ‘highly anomalous’ materials. We extend the FMM to describe the viscoelastic interfaces formed by bovine serum albumin and solutions of a common food stabilizer, Acacia gum. Fractional calculus allows us to model and compactly describe the measured frequency response of these interfaces in terms of their quasi-properties. Finally, we demonstrate the predictive ability of the FMM to quantitatively capture the behaviour of complex viscoelastic interfaces by combining the measured quasi-properties with the equation of motion for a complex fluid interface to describe the damped inertio-elastic oscillations that are observed experimentally.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Microgravity Fluid Sciences (Code UG) for support of this research under grant no. NNX09AV99G

    Carbon-fiber tips for scanning probe microscopes and molecular electronics experiments

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    We fabricate and characterize carbon-fiber tips for their use in combined scanning tunneling and force microscopy based on piezoelectric quartz tuning fork force sensors. An electrochemical fabrication procedure to etch the tips is used to yield reproducible sub-100-nm apex. We also study electron transport through single-molecule junctions formed by a single octanethiol molecule bonded by the thiol anchoring group to a gold electrode and linked to a carbon tip by the methyl group. We observe the presence of conductance plateaus during the stretching of the molecular bridge, which is the signature of the formation of a molecular junction.Comment: Conference Proceeding (Trends in NanoTechnology 2011, Tenerife SPAIN); Nanoscale Research Letters, (2012) 7:25

    Subclinical infection and asymptomatic carriage of gastrointestinal zoonoses: Occupational exposure, environmental pathways, and the anonymous spread of disease

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    Asymptomatic carriage of gastrointestinal zoonoses is more common in people whose profession involves them working directly with domesticated animals. Subclinical infections (defined as an infection in which symptoms are either asymptomatic or sufficiently mild to escape diagnosis) are important within a community as unknowing (asymptomatic) carriers of pathogens do not change their behaviour to prevent the spread of disease; therefore the public health significance of asymptomatic human excretion of zoonoses should not be underestimated. However, optimal strategies for managing diseases where asymptomatic carriage instigates further infection remain unresolved, and the impact on disease management is unclear. In this review we consider the environmental pathways associated with prolonged antigenic exposure and critically assess the significance of asymptomatic carriage in disease outbreaks Although screening high-risk groups for occupationally acquired diseases would be logistically problematical, there may be an economic case for identifying and treating asymptomatic carriage if the costs of screening and treatment are less than the costs of identifying and treating those individuals infected by asymptomatic hosts

    Evolution of design considerations in complex craniofacial reconstruction using patient-specific implants

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    Previously published evidence has established major clinical benefits from using Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM), and Additive Manufacturing (AM) to produce patient-specific devices. These include cutting guides, drilling guides, positioning guides, and implants. However, custom devices produced using these methods are still not in routine use – particularly by the UK National Health Service (NHS). Oft-cited reasons for this slow uptake include: a higher up-front cost than conventionally-fabricated devices, material-choice uncertainty, and a lack of long-term follow-up due to their relatively recent introduction. This paper identifies a further gap in current knowledge – that of design rules, or key specification considerations for complex CAD/CAM/AM devices. This research begins to address the gap by combining a detailed review of the literature with first-hand experience of interdisciplinary collaboration on five craniofacial patient case-studies. In each patient case, bony lesions in the orbito-temporal region were segmented, excised, and reconstructed in the virtual environment. Three cases translated these digital plans into theatre via polymer surgical guides. Four cases utilised AM to fabricate titanium implants. One implant was machined from PolyEther Ether Ketone (PEEK). From the literature, articles with relevant abstracts were analysed to extract design considerations. 19 frequently-recurring design considerations were extracted from previous publications. 9 new design considerations were extracted from the case studies – on the basis of subjective clinical evaluation. These were synthesised to produce a design considerations framework to assist clinicians with prescribing and design engineers with modelling. Promising avenues for further research are proposed

    Mathematizing Darwin

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    Ernst Mayr called the first part of the evolutionary synthesis the ‘Fisherian synthesis’ on account of the dominant role played by R.A. Fisher in forging a mathematical theory of natural selection together with J.B.S. Haldane and Sewall Wright in the decade 1922–1932. It is here argued that Fisher’s contribution relied on a close reading of Darwin’s work to a much greater extent than did the contributions of Haldane and Wright, that it was synthetic in contrast to their analytic approach and that it was greatly influenced by his friendship with the Darwin family, particularly with Charles’s son Leonard
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