Health care at birth and infant mortality: evidence from nighttime deliveries in Nigeria

High rates of home births in developing countries are often linked to high rates of newborn deaths, but there is considerable debate about how much of this is causal. This paper weighs in on this question by analyzing data on the timing of birth, health care utilization, and mortality for a sample of births in 7,021 rural Nigerian households occurring between 2009 and 2014. First, we show that timing of birth is strongly linked to use of institutional care: women with a nighttime birth are significantly less likely to use a health facility because of the difficulties associated with accessing care at night. In turn, this is associated with a sharp increase in the rate of newborn mortality at night. Leveraging variation in household proximity to a health care facility that offers 24-hour coverage, we show that this increase in mortality is plausibly due to lack of formal health care at the time of birth: infants born at night to households without a nearby health care facility that offers 24-hour coverage, experience an increase in mortality equivalent to about 10 additional newborn deaths per 1,000 live births. In contrast, when households have a nearby health facility that provides care at night, there is no detectable increase in mortality. These results suggest that well-designed policies to increase access to (and quality of) formal care at birth will likely to lead to significant reductions in newborn deaths

An Empirical Investigation of Why Doctors Migrate and Women Fail to Go for Screening.

In my first paper I examine the impact of short-term economic shocks on physician migration using a new panel dataset on physician migration from 31 African countries to the US and the UK. I estimate distributed-lag regressions of log migration on economic growth, I also instrument for growth using rainfall and changes in terms of trade. I find a significant effect of economic conditions: a one percentage point decline in lagged growth increases physician out-migration by approximately 0.3 percent. In the IV models, a one percentage point decline in lagged growth increases physician out-migration by between 3.4 and 3.6 percent. In my second paper, I examine the impact of doctors’ earnings. The Ghanaian Government in 1998 instituted a scheme known as the Additional Duty Hours Allowance (ADHA) Scheme which compensated doctors for any additional hours worked beyond the standard 40 hours a week/160 hours a month. I exploit this natural experiment to derive estimates of the impact of doctors’ earnings. Using innovative new methods developed by Abadie et al. (2007) and applying it to physician stock data collected by Docquier et al. (2007), I find that by 2004 - six years after the program was instituted - the foreign stock of Ghanaian physicians had reduced by between 10 and 13 percent and attribute this directly to the effect of the ADHA program. In my third paper I examine the demand for preventive care. Cervical cancer is the most common cancer among women in developing countries. Despite compelling evidence that cervical cancer screening has reduced morbidity and mortality in de- veloped countries, screening rates in many developing countries remain low. In this paper I examine the importance of demand-side factors on take-up of cervical screening. Using a randomized design, I test for the impact of price and of a conditional cancer treatment subsidy. Overall I find a significant impact of both interventions. A N10 increase in price of screening reduced take-up of the program by between 7 and 8 percentage points while women selected to receive the cancer treatment subsidy were about 4 percentage points more likely to participate in screening.Ph.D.Health Services Organization & PolicyUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64739/1/blkwrt_1.pd

Going to scale: design and implementation challenges of a program to increase access to skilled birth attendants in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The lack of availability of skilled providers in low- and middle- income countries is considered to be an important barrier to achieving reductions in maternal and child mortality. However, there is limited research on programs increasing the availability of skilled birth attendants in developing countries. We study the implementation of the Nigeria Midwives Service Scheme, a government program that recruited and deployed nearly 2,500 midwives to rural primary health care facilities across Nigeria in 2010. An outcome evaluation carried out by this team found only a modest impact on the use of antenatal care and no measurable impact on skilled birth attendance. This paper draws on perspectives of policymakers, program midwives, and community residents to understand why the program failed to have the desired impact. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured interviews with federal, state and local government policy makers and with MSS midwives. We also conducted focus groups with community stakeholders including community leaders and male and female residents. RESULTS: Our data reveal a range of design, implementation and operational challenges ranging from insufficient buy-in by key stakeholders at state and local levels, to irregular and in some cases total non-provision of agreed midwife benefits that likely contributed to the program's lack of impact. These challenges not only created a deep sense of dissatisfaction with the program but also had practical impacts on service delivery likely affecting households' uptake of services. CONCLUSION: This paper highlights the challenge of effectively scaling up maternal and child health interventions. Our findings emphasize the critical importance of program design, particularly when programs are implemented at scale; the need to identify and involve key stakeholders during planning and implementation; the importance of clearly defining lines of authority and responsibility that align with existing structures; and the necessity for multi-faceted interventions that address multiple barriers at the same time

The effect of increasing the supply of skilled health providers on pregnancy and birth outcomes: evidence from the midwives service scheme in Nigeria

Background: Limited availability of skilled health providers in developing countries is thought to be an important barrier to achieving maternal and child health-related MDG goals. Little is known, however, about the extent to which scaling-up supply of health providers will lead to improved pregnancy and birth outcomes. We study the effects of the Midwives Service Scheme (MSS), a public sector program in Nigeria that increased the supply of skilled midwives in rural communities on pregnancy and birth outcomes. Methods: We surveyed 7,104 women with a birth within the preceding five years across 12 states in Nigeria and compared changes in birth outcomes in MSS communities to changes in non-MSS communities over the same period. Results: The main measured effect of the scheme was a 7.3-percentage point increase in antenatal care use in program clinics and a 5-percentage point increase in overall use of antenatal care, both within the first year of the program. We found no statistically significant effect of the scheme on skilled birth attendance or on maternal delivery complications. Conclusion: This study highlights the complexity of improving maternal and child health outcomes in developing countries, and shows that scaling up supply of midwives may not be sufficient on its own

Rapid Genomic Characterization and Global Surveillance of Klebsiella Using Pathogenwatch.

BACKGROUND: Klebsiella species, including the notable pathogen K. pneumoniae, are increasingly associated with antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Genome-based surveillance can inform interventions aimed at controlling AMR. However, its widespread implementation requires tools to streamline bioinformatic analyses and public health reporting. METHODS: We developed the web application Pathogenwatch, which implements analytics tailored to Klebsiella species for integration and visualization of genomic and epidemiological data. We populated Pathogenwatch with 16 537 public Klebsiella genomes to enable contextualization of user genomes. We demonstrated its features with 1636 genomes from 4 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) participating in the NIHR Global Health Research Unit (GHRU) on AMR. RESULTS: Using Pathogenwatch, we found that GHRU genomes were dominated by a small number of epidemic drug-resistant clones of K. pneumoniae. However, differences in their distribution were observed (eg, ST258/512 dominated in Colombia, ST231 in India, ST307 in Nigeria, ST147 in the Philippines). Phylogenetic analyses including public genomes for contextualization enabled retrospective monitoring of their spread. In particular, we identified hospital outbreaks, detected introductions from abroad, and uncovered clonal expansions associated with resistance and virulence genes. Assessment of loci encoding O-antigens and capsule in K. pneumoniae, which represent possible vaccine candidates, showed that 3 O-types (O1-O3) represented 88.9% of all genomes, whereas capsule types were much more diverse. CONCLUSIONS: Pathogenwatch provides a free, accessible platform for real-time analysis of Klebsiella genomes to aid surveillance at local, national, and global levels. We have improved representation of genomes from GHRU participant countries, further facilitating ongoing surveillance

Effects of a high-dose 24-h infusion of tranexamic acid on death and thromboembolic events in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (HALT-IT): an international randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Tranexamic acid reduces surgical bleeding and reduces death due to bleeding in patients with trauma. Meta-analyses of small trials show that tranexamic acid might decrease deaths from gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to assess the effects of tranexamic acid in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods: We did an international, multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 164 hospitals in 15 countries. Patients were enrolled if the responsible clinician was uncertain whether to use tranexamic acid, were aged above the minimum age considered an adult in their country (either aged 16 years and older or aged 18 years and older), and had significant (defined as at risk of bleeding to death) upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients were randomly assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Patients received either a loading dose of 1 g tranexamic acid, which was added to 100 mL infusion bag of 0·9% sodium chloride and infused by slow intravenous injection over 10 min, followed by a maintenance dose of 3 g tranexamic acid added to 1 L of any isotonic intravenous solution and infused at 125 mg/h for 24 h, or placebo (sodium chloride 0·9%). Patients, caregivers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. The primary outcome was death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation; analysis excluded patients who received neither dose of the allocated treatment and those for whom outcome data on death were unavailable. This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN11225767, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01658124. Findings: Between July 4, 2013, and June 21, 2019, we randomly allocated 12 009 patients to receive tranexamic acid (5994, 49·9%) or matching placebo (6015, 50·1%), of whom 11 952 (99·5%) received the first dose of the allocated treatment. Death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation occurred in 222 (4%) of 5956 patients in the tranexamic acid group and in 226 (4%) of 5981 patients in the placebo group (risk ratio [RR] 0·99, 95% CI 0·82–1·18). Arterial thromboembolic events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were similar in the tranexamic acid group and placebo group (42 [0·7%] of 5952 vs 46 [0·8%] of 5977; 0·92; 0·60 to 1·39). Venous thromboembolic events (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) were higher in tranexamic acid group than in the placebo group (48 [0·8%] of 5952 vs 26 [0·4%] of 5977; RR 1·85; 95% CI 1·15 to 2·98). Interpretation: We found that tranexamic acid did not reduce death from gastrointestinal bleeding. On the basis of our results, tranexamic acid should not be used for the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding outside the context of a randomised trial

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation