Análise do dividendo demográfico na matrícula escolar no Brasil numa abordagem hierárquica e hierárquica-espacial

Esse artigo procura investigar os determinantes da matrícula escolar no Brasil, nos ensinos fundamental e médio, combinando duas tradições dos estudos educacionais. A primeira refere-se ao dividendo demográfico e a segunda aos estudos dos determinantes educacionais que utilizam o arcabouço teórico da Função de Produção Educacional. Somado a isso, busca-se incluir a dinâmica espacial na análise educacional, através da construção de uma metodologia alternativa, que combina os modelos hierárquico e espacial. Os principais resultados indicaram que uma menor pressão demográfica constitui um dos fatores contextuais mais importantes para a matrícula no fundamental. Já para o ensino médio, a disponibilidade de oferta educacional, representada pela razão professor/população em idade escolar, é o fator municipal mais relevante. Quando se considera o espaço na análise através do modelo hierárquico-espacial, observa-se que a razão de dependência e as demais variáveis contextuais das cidades vizinhas afetam a matrícula de determinado município

Comparação entre metodologias de idade-período-coorte para o estudo de probabilidades de progressão por série selecionadas no Brasil

The aim of this article is to realize a comparative methodological exercise of two APC estimators: the conventional restrict estimator obtained by the generalized linear models (MLGR) and the so-called intrinsec estimator (EI). Both instruments are contrasted by means of the parameter estimates and of the model’s efficiency. The object of our interest are the contributions of age, period and cohort effects to temporal changes in grande progression probabilities in Brazil. The APC modelling of grade progression probabilities is justified as age, period and cohort effects may signficantly affect school transitions: age effects reflect both the mininal age of school entry as the trade-off between study and work, which becames strong along the educacional carrier; period effects are associated with different economical and political conjuctures, as well as with the state of the educational policies; finally, cohort effects reflect social attributes proper of some group of individuals. This article shows the potentiality of the solution to the ageperiod-cohort model based on intrinsec estimator, which presents excelent statistical properties, namely: best adjust to predicted values, small variance, and significance of the parameters. Therefore, projections of grade progression probabilities based on this estimator may be very promissing.Age-Period-Cohort Models, Intrinsec Estimator, Grade Progression Probability

Desigualdade de oportunidades educacionais: seletividade e progressão por série no Brasil, 1986 a 2008

This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the inequality of educational opportunities in Brazil, identifying the magnitude of the relationships between social origins and the probability of progression on the educational scale between 1986 and 2008. We apply the Grade Progression Probability concept (RIOS-NETO, 2004) on the individual level through the estimation of school transitions logistic model. We show that men have lower chances of school progression, as well as black, residents in rural areas and the non-residents in metropolitan areas, and that those differences are not neutral with respect to the transition considered: we found that those differentials tend to decrease along the educational career. Important evidence was that, in the case of race, and situation/area of residence, there was a reduction in the advantage of whites or people with residence in metropolitan or urban areas. Also we tested if the two hypothesis proposed by Mare (1980) to the educational stratification are valid to Brazil. The first one, which states that the effect of the social origins decreases along the educational trajectory, could be not be corroborated by none of the measures employed (education, sex, race and occupation of the head of the family; number of siblings). Regarding the second hypothesis, Mare states that the educational expansion between two periods would reduce the inequality of educational opportunities in a given grade. Overall, we show that this hypothesis is corroborated when the education and occupational status of the family’s head is considered on the first school transitions between 1986 and 2008. We can conclude, therefore, that the educational policies that promoted the universal access on the education system and on the elementary level were effective on reducing inequality of educational opportunities, measured by our Proxy variables.Age-Period-Cohort Models, Intrinsec Estimator, Grade Progression Probability

De onde vim e até onde vou: uma análise preliminar da desigualdade socioeconômica e entrada no Ensino Superior brasileiro

In this article we test the hypothesis in which the democratization policies for higher education adopted in Brazil had reduced the strength of the association between socioeconomic background and the entry chances in this educational level. For this, we used microdata from Monthly Employment Survey (IBGE), and we followed the educational trajectory of the individuals aged 16 to 30 for a year in the following periods: 2002/2003 and 2008/2009. The results show that this hypothesis holds for residents in the metropolitan areas. Results suggest that educational expansion policies may be decisive in reducing the inequality of opportunities.Entry to Tertiary Education; School Transitions Model; Grade of Membership

Tendências da desigualdade salarial para coortes de mulheres brancas e negras no Brasil

É feita uma análise das tendências da desigualdade salarial da força de trabalho feminina no Brasil, segundo a raça, durante as décadas de 1980 e 1990. Crescentes retornos de qualificação e crescente demanda por trabalho qualificado resultam em uma divergência do crescimento salarial entre os trabalhadores com alta e baixa qualificação. Este crescente hiato resulta em um aumento da desigualdade salarial por raça. Com o propósito de interpretar as tendências, são examinadas diferenças por raça nos padrões de casamento, fecundidade, arranjos domiciliares, níveis educacionais, participação na força de trabalho, níveis de qualificação, alocação ocupacional e salários, distinguindo entre medidas de período e coorte. São usados dados provenientes das PNADs 1987-1999 para analisar a importância de mudanças inter e intracoortes para mulheres brancas e negras. Funções salariais são estimadas a partir dos dados agregados da série temporal de cross sections, usando mínimos quadrados ordinários e regressões quantílicas.We analyze trends of wage inequality of the Brazilian female labor force, by race, during the 1980s and 1990s. Increasing returns to skills and increasing demand for skilled labor result in a divergence of wages growth between high and low skilled workers. This increasing gap results in an increase of wage inequality by race. In order to interpret trends, we take into account race differences in marriage patterns, fertility, household arrangements, educational levels, labor market participation, skill levels, occupational location and earnings, distinguishing between period and cohort measures. We use 1987-1999 Brazilian Household Sample Surveys data to examine the importance of within- and between-cohort changes for black and white women. Earnings functions are estimated from the pooled time-series of these cross-section data, using OLS and quantile regressions

Influences Of Transition In Age-Education Structure And Internal Migration On The Labour Market In Brazil

Este estudo desenvolve uma metodologia que incorpora a dinâmica de migração interna em modelos que estimam o impacto da transição demográfica e educação sobre os perfis de idade-educação ganhos dos trabalhadores brasileiros ao longo do tempo. Técnicas para estimar o nível eo padrão de migração foram integrados. Conclusões seguem hipótese inicial, e indicam que o impacto negativo do tamanho da coorte sobre os ganhos é ainda mais negativo do que as estimativas que não levam em conta os fluxos populacionais. Estas estratégias metodológicas podem ser aplicadas a outros estudos quando novos dados se tornam disponíveis, assim como a outros países com a disponibilidade de dados de migração.This study develops a methodology that incorporates internal migration dynamics into models that estimate the impact of demographic and education transitions on the age-education earnings profiles of Brazilian workers over time. Techniques to estimate the level and pattern of migration were integrated. Findings follow initial hypothesis, and indicate that the negative impact of cohort size on earnings is even more negative than estimates that did not take into account population flows. These methodological strategies can be applied to further studies when new data become available, as well as to other countries with the availability of migration data

Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2019: sustentabilidade e continuidade do monitoramento da saúde da população brasileira

-

Análise da evolução de indicadores educacionais no Brasil: 1981 a 2008

This article traces evidences of the evolution of some school efficiency indicators in Brazil, namely: Attendance Rate, Gross Schooling Rate, Net Schooling Rate; Age-Grade distortion rate. Our analysis permeates nearly three decades of educational policies in Brazil, by the computation of the indicators to the historical series of PNAD microdata. Some indicators were stratified by population subgroups, according to the following subgroups: sex, race and quantiles of the per head family income. The results show that the educational policies implemented in Brazil, which were more incisive in the Elementary level, were well succeeded in terms of increasing and promoting equal access and also reducing grade distortion. Nevertheless, in the high school and college, there was a favorable evolution, but in a lower baseline and with restrictions in the access of some population.Educational indicators, Educational Policies, Educational Stratification

A ética do silêncio racial no contexto urbano: políticas públicas e desigualdade social no Recife, 1900-1940

Mais de meio século após o preconceito racial ter se tornado o principal alvo dos movimentos urbanos pelos direitos civis nos Estados Unidos e na África do Sul, e décadas depois do surgimento dos movimentos negros contemporâneos no Brasil, o conjunto de ferramentas legislativas criado no Brasil para promover o direito à cidade ainda adere à longa tradição brasileira de silêncio acerca da questão racial. Este artigo propõe iniciar uma exploração das raízes históricas desse fenômeno, remontando ao surgimento do silêncio sobre a questão racial na política urbana do Recife, Brasil, durante a primeira metade do século XX. O Recife foi eé um exemplo paradigmático do processo pelo qual uma cidade amplamente marcada por traços negros e africanos chegou a ser definida política e legalmente como um espaço pobre, subdesenvolvido e racialmente neutro, onde as desigualdades sociais originaram na exclusão capitalista, e não na escravidão e nas ideologias do racismo científico. Neste sentido, Recife lança luzes sobre a política urbana que se gerou sob a sombra do silêncio racial.More than half a century after racial prejudice became central to urban civil rights movements in the United States and South Africa, and decades after the emergence of Brazil’s contemporary Black movements, Brazil's internationally recognized body of rights-to-the-city legislation still adheres to the country's long historical tradition of racial silence. This article explores the historical roots of this phenomenon by focusing on the emergence of racial silence in Recife, Brazil during the first half of the 20th Century. Recife was and remains a paradigmatic example of the process through which a city marked by its Black and African roots came to be legally and politically defined as a poor, underdeveloped and racially neutral space, where social inequalities derived from capitalist exclusion rather than from slavery and scientific racism. As such, Recife'sexperience sheds light on the urban policies that were generated in the shadow of racial silence