La restricción externa dinámica al crecimiento de México a través de las propensiones del comercio, 1970-1999

The Post Keynesian argument that the main limitation to growth -basically of any middle income country- is due to the trade deficit. This feature, which is structural, is called -within this frame work- External Constraint to Growth, ECG, through cointegration and ECM analysis for exports and imports functions, it is empirically demonstrated the dynamic evolution of the ECG, for 1970-1999. Despite the Mexican Economy is considerably linked to the international economy, manufacturing leads the growth process and several structural reforms have been implemented since 1985, the main conclusion is that the ECG has not changed.

Sobrepeso e integración económica en México

ResumenLa obesidad en México y el mundo ha ido creciendo sistemáticamente, al grado que se ha convertido en una pandemia con fuertes consecuencias en padecimientos muy graves de salud pública como hipertensión, enfermedades cardiovasculares, diabetes y cáncer, todo lo cual tiene fuertes impactos en las finanzas públicas y en el crecimiento económico.En México, desde los años noventa, la obesidad y el sobrepeso han crecido de manera exponencial, mucho más que en Estados Unidos. A manera de hipótesis, sugerimos que la entrada en vigor del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte en 1994 no sólo modificó la estructura del comercio y de los flujos de capital. También gestó un cambio sustancial en los hábitos de consumo de la población, particularmente la infantil, que se manifestó en un incremento notable en el consumo de golosinas. Estos resultados emergen del análisis de la Encuesta Nacional Ingreso Gasto de los Hogares (enigh) para los años 1992 y 1996.AbstractThe obesity in Mexico and the world has been growing systematicly, to the degree that has turned into a pandemic with strong consequences into very serious sufferings of public health as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and cancer, everything which has strong impacts in the public finance and in the economic growth. In Mexico, from the nineties, the obesity and the overweight have grown in an exponential way, much more than in The United States. Like hypothesis, we suggest that the entry into force of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994 not only modified the structure of the trade and of the capital flows. Also it prepared a substantial change in the habits of consumption of the population, particularly the infantile one, which demonstrated in a notable increase in the consumption of delicacies. These results emerge of the analysis of the National Survey I deposit Expense of the Homes (enigh) for the year 1992 and 1996

Editorial

Este año se ha caracterizado por la enorme publicidad hecha a las celebraciones del bicentenario de la Independencia y del centenario de la revolución mexicanas. Incluso en muchas publicaciones se ha discutido desde antes sobre la naturaleza misma de los eventos que se pretenden rememorar y han aparecido análisis contrastantes entre sí y muchas veces con las visiones que ofrece la historia oficial

México 2020-2024: dos escenarios macroeconómicos

(Mexico 2020-2024: Two Macroeconomic Scenarios)In a context of high internal uncertainty that has been aggravated by the complex global economic, political (and now health) environment, a numerical analysis is made from dynamic stochastic simulations derived from Eudoxio: macroeconometric model of the Mexican economy (Loría, 2019a) that generates two macroeconomic scenarios for Mexico (inertial and pessimistic) in its main variables of economic activity for the 2020-2024 horizon. This article stands out for starting from the prospective analysis of scenarios, the inertial scenario shows an average growth of GDP and employment of 1.27% and 1.6% against 0.64% and 1.04% of the pessimistic scenario, respectively, which are subject to the behavior of the economic variables during the pandemic evolution (which is just beginning), which could lead the country to the worst crisis in history. To consider an optimistic scenario, a true change in policies and official discourse would be needed to recover fundamental aspects of the energy reform and address the enormous challenges posed by crime and fiscal aspects on economic growth.En un contexto de alta incertidumbre interna que se ha agravado por el complejo ambiente económico, político (y ahora de salud) mundial, se hace un análisis numérico proveniente de simulaciones estocásticas dinámicas derivadas de Eudoxio: modelo macroeconométrico de la economía mexicana (Loría, 2019a) que genera dos escenarios macroeconómicos para México (inercial y pesimista) en sus principales variables de actividad económica para el horizonte 2020-2024. Este artículo se destaca por partir del análisis prospectivo de escenarios, el escenario inercial arroja un crecimiento medio del PIB y del empleo de 1.27% y 1.6% contra 0.64% y 1.04% del escenario pesimista, respectivamente, los cuales están sujetos al comportamiento de las variables económicas durante la evolución pandemia (que apenas inicia), la cual podría orillar al país a la peor crisis de la historia. Para considerar un escenario optimista se necesitaría de un verdadero cambio de políticas y del discurso oficial para recuperar aspectos fundamentales de la reforma energética y atender los enormes desafíos que están presentado la criminalidad y los aspectos fiscales sobre el crecimiento económico

La ley de Okun: una relectura para México, 1970-2004

We estimated the dynamic relationship between the unemployment rate and output for the Mexican Economy for annual data (1970-2004). We estimated three structural time series models by using the Kalman filter. We found a coefficient in the range 2.08-2.5. In order to avoid spuriousness, we proved for cointegration through the Johansen Procedure; finally, through the estimation of VAR's we also proved that Granger causality runs in both senses in the three main Okun equations.Okun's law, structural time series models, Kalman filter cuasality

Informality, Productivity and Growth in Mexico, 2000.Q2-2014.Q4

The huge growth of the informal sector, the labor market relief valve, has conditioned the low Mexican economic growth since the early 1980´s. From a Lewis (1954) model´s review, we propose that the growth of informality has limited economic growth, through the systematically factorial productivity reduction. A VECM(4) supports evidence about the factorial productivity reduction by the informal sector growth, associated with slow Mexican economic growth to perpetuate the productivity vicious circle too hard to break

La relación entre robo y desempleo de varones jóvenes en México, 2005-2017

(The relationship between theft and youth male unemployment in Mexico, 2005-2017)Using the theory of rational choice, we econometrically tested the economic determinants of theft through a BVAR that analyzes the relationship of theft with the precariousness of the labor market and the unemployment rate of men aged 15 to 24 years without higher education. We found that there is a vicious cycle between the precariousness of the labor market, theft, unemployment and economic activity. Therefore, we suggest that an efficient public security policy would be one that not only strongly fights crime but also simultaneously addresses its socioeconomic origin and reduces impunity. The main limitation is not considering other determinants such as spending on security, but the robustness of the results does not indicate that it is a deficiency. This article demonstrates that the determinants of theft can be explained by this approach and not just by antisocial behavior. It is necessary to articulate a multi-faceted strategy that could quickly reduce theft because otherwise, it will continue to proliferate.A partir de la teoría de la elección racional probamos econométricamente los determinantes económicos del robo a través de un BVAR que analiza la relación del robo con la precariedad del mercado laboral y el desempleo de los varones de 15 a 24 años con baja escolaridad. Verificamos que existe un círculo vicioso entre precariedad del mercado laboral, robo, desempleo y actividad económica.  Por lo tanto, sugerimos que una política de seguridad pública eficiente será aquella que no solo combata con firmeza la delincuencia, sino que también aborde su origen socioeconómico y reduzca la impunidad. La principal limitante es no considerar otros determinantes como el gasto en seguridad, pero la robustez de los resultados no indica que sea una carencia. Este artículo se destaca al modelar los determinantes del robo con este enfoque y no solo considerarlo una conducta antisocial. Es necesario articular una estrategia con varias acciones simultáneas que reduzcan rápidamente el robo porque encontramos que una vez que ha comenzado se reproduce

Anthropization in buffer zones of protected areas

Worldwide, protected areas represent one of the main attractions for national and international visitors (Bushell, 2003). Since the end of the 20th century, tourism growth has created different pressures on natural spaces, mainly caused by changes in land use (Boavida-Portugal, Rocha, & Ferreira, 2016). The modification of an ecosystem through anthropogenic effects is known as anthropization (Martínez, 2010). One of the factors that enhances this problem is the attraction of the coastal territories for the sun and beach tourism (García-Ayllón, 2018). Through the increase in urbanized areas, greater traffic flow, consumption of natural resources, increased pollution, and pressure on natural spaces, beach and coastal tourism pose severe threats to the ecosystem (Kim, Lee, & Kim, 2019). Despite this well-known direct impact of tourism on the environment, when it is not clear what is driving the forces (pressures) or the interconnections between factors, anthropization is categorized as diffuse and is generally examined from a global or general perspective (Rova, Pranovi, & Müller, 2015). In Costa Rica, the creation of Manuel Antonio National Park in 1972, combined with access facilities and the expansion of tourism investment in the buffer zone, has made this region one of the most visited in the country (Broadbent et al., 2012). In the case of famous tourist destinations, the literature coincides that excess visitation impact the environmental and social level (Burbano, Valdivieso, Izurieta, Meredith, & Ferri, 2022). There is a paradox because the national park was created to protect nature, but at the same time, it became a popular tourist attraction, which stimulated an unplanned tourism growth in the buffer zone, generating impacts through the negative land cover change on the biophysical environment (Koens, Dieperink, & Miranda, 2009). There is a research gap in examining the influence of popular protected areas on the anthropization of the surrounding landscape. This study aims to determine the changes in the landscape in the buffer zone of Manuel Antonio National Park through an anthropization index. The results are analyzed by considering visitors statistics to the protected area, location of the tourist infrastructure, and literature review

Producto potencial y ciclos económicos en México, 1980.1-2006.4

Through the use of Structural Times Series Models we estimated: potential output, the output gap and the business cycles for the Mexican GDP (1980.1-2006.4). We found that: a) the potential output has varied sharply for two different time periods: 2.1% (1980.4-1994.4) and 3.7% (1995.4-2006.4); b) great component of seasonality: Q1 and Q3 are of slow growth (below average) and Q2, Q4 above average; c) we detected that the peaks and troughs have been progressively less pronounced since the year 2000.Potential output, output gap, business cycles, structural time series models, Kalman filter.