Collective Effects of Fire Intensity and Sloped Terrain on Wind-Driven Surface Fire and Its Impact on a Cubic Structure

The combined effects of percent slope and fire intensity of a wind driven line fire on an idealized building has been numerically investigated in this paper. The simulations were done using the large eddy simulation (LES) solver of an open source CFD toolbox called FireFOAM. A set of three fire intensity values representing different heat release rates of grassland fuels on different inclined fuel beds have been modeled to analyze the impact of factors, such as fuel and topography on wind-fire interaction of a built area. An idealized cubic structure representing a simplified building was considered downstream of the fire source. The numerical results have been verified with the aerodynamic measurements of a full-scale building model in the absence of fire effects. There is a fair consistency between the modeled findings and empirical outcomes with maximum error of 18%, which acknowledge the validity and precision of the proposed model. The results show that concurrent increase of fire intensity and terrain slope causes an expansion of the surface temperature of the building which is partially due to the increase of flame tilt angle upslope on the hilly terrains. In addition, increasing fire intensity leads to an increase in the flow velocity, which is associated with the low-pressure area observed behind the fire front. Despite limitations of the experimental results in the area of wind-fire interaction the result of the present work is an attempt to shed light on this very important problem of fire behavior prediction. This article is a primary report on this subject in CFD modeling of the collective effects of fire intensity and sloped terrain on wind driven wildfire and its interaction on buildings

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

Numerical Investigation of the Effect of Sloped Terrain on Wind-Driven Surface Fire and Its Impact on Idealized Structures

In this study, a time-dependent investigation has been conducted to numerically analyze the impact of wind-driven surface fire on an obstacle located on sloped terrain downstream of the fire source. Inclined field with different upslope terrain angles of 0, 10, 20, and 30° at various wind-velocities have been simulated by FireFoam, which is a large eddy simulation (LES) solver of the OpenFOAM platform. The numerical data have been validated using the aerodynamic measurements of a full-scale building model in the absence of fire effects. The results underlined the physical phenomena contributing to the impact of varying wind flow and terrain slope near the fire bed on a built area. The findings indicated that under a constant heat release rate and upstream wind velocity, increasing the upslope terrain angle leads to an increase in the higher temperature areas on the ground near the building. It is also found that raising the inclined terrain slope angle from 0 to 30°, results in an increase in the integrated temperature on the surface of the building. Furthermore, by raising the terrain slope from 0 to 30°, the integrated temperature on the ground for the mentioned cases increases by 16%, 10%, and 13%, respectively.</jats:p

Investigation of unsteady premixed micro/macro counterflow flames for lean to rich methane/air mixture

In the current work, an unsteady analysis of methane/air premixed counterflow flame is carried out for different flame conditions and stability parameters considering different strain rate values. The results are presented at unsteady and final steady conditions, and the impact of time-dependent regimes and variations in equivalence ratio, from lean flame to rich one, are analyzed. The governing equations including continuity, momentum, energy, and species are numerically solved with a coupled simple and Piso algorithm. It is also found that when the strain rate value is 1000 s−1, for flame stability, the hydraulic distance of the microchannel must be at least 0.05 mm. Increasing the strain rate results in decreasing the time of stabilizing temperature distribution with a faster quasi-steady equilibrium. The necessity of time-dependent analysis is to comprehend the variations in the main factors of flame structure before reaching the finalized steady-state condition. Therefore, by designing an intermittent automatic valve, if the flow stops in time period of 0.0025 s and starts again, the formation of NO2 and CO2 will be reduced about 50% and 9%, respectively, in a case with a = 100 s−

The time dependent investigation of methane-air counterflow diffusion flames with detailed kinetic and pollutant effects into a micro/macro open channel

In the present study, time-dependent numerical analysis of methane-air counterflow diffusion flame into a selected macro/micro open channel is investigated. The flame is simulated by multi and single-step reaction approaches into an open channel with a constant distance of 15 mm between air and the fuel inlet, and a hydraulic distance at the order of 0.1 mm. To solve the unsteady problem, a coupled pressure-velocity implicit division method is considered. The results show an acceptable agreement between numerical and experimental data that confirm the accuracy of the model. The results also revealed that the variation of the residence time to the inlet velocity is more sensitive than the inlet temperature. It is also found that at the larger inlet velocities, the flame is stabilized at a smaller value of hydraulic distance. This is a result of increasing the possibility of reactions between species. The generation rates of CO2, CO and H2O species are found to be nearly constant at t > 0.009s while for NO and NO2 species the rates remain unchanged at t > 0.013s and t > 0.016s, respectively

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation