The greatest GOES soft X-ray flares: Saturation and recalibration over two Hale cycles

The solar soft X-ray observations from the GOES satellites provide one of the best quantitative records of solar activity, with nearly continuous flare records since 1975. We present a uniform analysis of the entire time series for 1975 to 2022 at NOAA class C1 level or above, to characterize the occurrence distribution function (ODF) of the flares observed in the 1-8 A spectral band. The analysis includes estimations of the peak fluxes of the 12 flares that saturated the 1-8 A time series. Our new estimates include NOAA's recently established correction factor (1.43) to adjust the GOES-1 through GOES-15 data covering 1975-2016. For each of the 12 saturated events we have made new estimates of peak fluxes based on fits to the rise and fall of the flare time profile, and have validated our extrapolation schemes by comparing with artificially truncated but unsaturated X10-class events. SOL2003-11-04 now has a peak flux of 4.32e-3 W/m^2. This corresponds to X43 on the new scale, or X30 on the old scale. We provide a list in the Appendix for peak fluxes of all 38 events above 10^-3 W/m^2, the GOES X10 level, including the 12 saturated events. The full list now gives us a first complete sample from which we obtain an occurrence distribution function (ODF) for peak energy flux , often represented as a power law dF/dE ~ E^-alpha, for which we find alpha = 1.973 +- 0.014 in the range M1 to X3. The power-law description fails at the high end, requiring a downward break in the ODF above the X10 level. We give a tapered powerlaw description of the resulting CCDF (complementary cumulative distribution function) and extrapolate it into the domain of "superflares," i.e. flares with bolometric energies > 10^33 erg. Extrapolation of this fit provides estimates of 100-yr and 1000-yr GOES peak fluxes that agree reasonably well with other such estimates using different data sets and methodology.Comment: Submitted to Solar Physics, September 202

Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum

Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream's source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (~1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (~6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather

The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level

Solar Physics Memoir Series Reinstituted

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Wind/WAVES and SMEI Observations of ICMEs

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