Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host-pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12 degrees C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12 degrees C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats

Internal deformation of the subducted Nazca slab inferred from seismic anisotropy

Within oceanic lithosphere a fossilized fabric is often preserved originating from the time of plate formation. Such fabric is thought to form at the mid-ocean ridge when olivine crystals align with the direction of plate spreading1, 2. It is unclear, however, whether this fossil fabric is preserved within slabs during subduction or overprinted by subduction-induced deformation. The alignment of olivine crystals, such as within fossil fabrics, can generate anisotropy that is sensed by passing seismic waves. Seismic anisotropy is therefore a useful tool for investigating the dynamics of subduction zones, but it has so far proved difficult to observe the anisotropic properties of the subducted slab itself. Here we analyse seismic anisotropy in the subducted Nazca slab beneath Peru and find that the fast direction of seismic wave propagation aligns with the contours of the slab. We use numerical modelling to simulate the olivine fabric created at the mid-ocean ridge, but find it is inconsistent with our observations of seismic anisotropy in the subducted Nazca slab. Instead we find that an orientation of the olivine crystal fast axes aligned parallel to the strike of the slab provides the best fit, consistent with along-strike extension induced by flattening of the slab during subduction (A. Kumar et al., manuscript in preparation). We conclude that the fossil fabric has been overprinted during subduction and that the Nazca slab must therefore be sufficiently weak to undergo internal deformation

Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories

The largest threat to the long-term existent of coral reefs is climate change, and this topic has received much attention over the past 20 years as coral bleaching and mortality events have become more frequent and more intense. As a result of these events, changes in different aspects of coral reef ecosystems have potentially changed the balance of carbonate accretion and erosion. These geomorphic consequences of coral bleaching have yet to received significant attention, with most studies being conducted on reef ecology, and here we begin to rectify this omission. Using data collected on inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014 we track the carbonate budget of these reefs across the 1998 coral bleaching event when 90% of coral cover was lost, and subsequent recovery. We found that while all reefs were estimated have positive budgets, and thus were accreting in 1994, in 2005 almost all reefs were in an erosional (negative budget) state. By 2014, 7 reefs had recovered to positive carbonate budgets. However, where macroalgae was previously found, and was now dominant, carbonate budgets remained negative. Boosted regression tree models indicated that reefs with higher massive coral, low macroalgae cover and low biomass of excavating parrotfishes in 1994 were more likely to recover by 2014. However, in 2016 a second bleaching-induced mass-mortality of corals occurred. If this mortality is similar to 1998, we predict that six of eight reefs that had positive budgets in 2014 would recover to positive budgets again by 2030. However, no currently negative budget reef would recover. Our results highlighted that coral reef framework maintenance potential should not be assumed from ecological state, and that management has a role to play in promoting resilient carbonate accretion on coral reefs

A transdisciplinary and community-driven database to unravel subduction zone initiation

Subduction zones are pivotal for the recycling of Earth’s outer layer into its interior. However, the conditions under which new subduction zones initiate are enigmatic. Here, we constructed a transdisciplinary database featuring detailed analysis of more than a dozen documented subduction zone initiation events from the last hundred million years. Our initial findings reveal that horizontally forced subduction zone initiation is dominant over the last 100 Ma, and that most initiation events are proximal to pre-existing subduction zones. The SZI Database is expandable to facilitate access to the most current understanding of subduction zone initiation as research progresses, providing a community platform that establishes a common language to sharpen discussion across the Earth Science community

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems and the goods and services they provide for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate

Results from the dissemination of an evidence-based telephone-delivered intervention for healthy lifestyle and weight loss: the Optimal Health Program

Despite proven efficacy, there are few published evaluations of telephone-delivered interventions targeting physical activity, healthy eating, and weight loss in community dissemination contexts. This study aims to evaluate participant and program outcomes from the Optimal Health Program, a telephone-delivered healthy lifestyle and weight loss program provided by a primary health care organization. Dissemination study used a single-group, repeated measures design; outcomes were assessed at 6-month (mid-program; n = 166) and 12-month (end of program; n = 88) using paired analyses. The program reached a representative sample of at-risk, primary care patients, with 56 % withdrawing before program completion. Among completers, a statistically significant improvement between baseline and end of program was observed for weight [mean change (SE) −5.4 (7.0) kg] and waist circumference [−4.8 (9.7) cm], underpinned by significant physical activity and dietary change. Findings suggest that telephone-delivered weight loss and healthy lifestyle programs can provide an effective model for use in primary care settings, but participant retention remains a challenge

Cost-Effectiveness of a Telephone-Delivered Intervention for Physical Activity and Diet

Background: Given escalating rates of chronic disease, broad-reach and cost-effective interventions to increase physical activity and improve dietary intake are needed. The cost-effectiveness of a Telephone Counselling intervention to improve physical activity and diet, targeting adults with established chronic diseases in a low socio-economic area of a major Australian city was examined. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cost-effectiveness modelling study using data collected between February 2005 and November 2007 from a cluster-randomised trial that compared Telephone Counselling with a “Usual Care” (brief intervention) alternative. Economic outcomes were assessed using a state-transition Markov model, which predicted the progress of participants through five health states relating to physical activity and dietary improvement, for ten years after recruitment. The costs and health benefits of Telephone Counselling, Usual Care and an existing practice (Real Control) group were compared. Telephone Counselling compared to Usual Care was not cost-effective ($78,489 per quality adjusted life year gained). However, the Usual Care group did not represent existing practice and is not a useful comparator for decision making. Comparing Telephone Counselling outcomes to existing practice (Real Control), the intervention was found to be cost-effective ($29,375 per quality adjusted life year gained). Usual Care (brief intervention) compared to existing practice (Real Control) was also cost-effective ($12,153 per quality adjusted life year gained). Conclusions/Significance: This modelling study shows that a decision to adopt a Telephone Counselling program over existing practice (Real Control) is likely to be cost-effective. Choosing the ‘Usual Care’ brief intervention over existing practice (Real Control) shows a lower cost per quality adjusted life year, but the lack of supporting evidence for efficacy or sustainability is an important consideration for decision makers. The economics of behavioural approaches to improving health must be made explicit if decision makers are to be convinced that allocating resources toward such programs is worthwhile

Risk‐sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change

Coral reef ecosystems are seriously threatened by changing conditions in the ocean. Although many factors are implicated, climate change has emerged as a dominant and rapidly growing threat. Developing a long‐term strategic plan for the conservation of coral reefs is urgently needed yet is complicated by significant uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on coral reef ecosystems. We use Modern Portfolio Theory to identify coral reef locations globally that, in the absence of other impacts, are likely to have a heightened chance of surviving projected climate changes relative to other reefs. Long‐term planning that is robust to uncertainty in future conditions provides an objective and transparent framework for guiding conservation action and strategic investment. These locations constitute important opportunities for novel conservation investments to secure less vulnerable yet well‐connected coral reefs that may, in turn, help to repopulate degraded areas in the event that the climate has stabilized

The effectiveness of interventions to change six health behaviours: a review of reviews

Background: Several World Health Organisation reports over recent years have highlighted the high incidence of chronic diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer. Contributory factors include unhealthy diets, alcohol and tobacco use and sedentary lifestyles. This paper reports the findings of a review of reviews of behavioural change interventions to reduce unhealthy behaviours or promote healthy behaviours. We included six different health-related behaviours in the review: healthy eating, physical exercise, smoking, alcohol misuse, sexual risk taking (in young people) and illicit drug use. We excluded reviews which focussed on pharmacological treatments or those which required intensive treatments (e. g. for drug or alcohol dependency). Methods: The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and several Ovid databases were searched for systematic reviews of interventions for the six behaviours (updated search 2008). Two reviewers applied the inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the quality of the reviews. The results were discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results: We included 103 reviews published between 1995 and 2008. The focus of interventions varied, but those targeting specific individuals were generally designed to change an existing behaviour (e. g. cigarette smoking, alcohol misuse), whilst those aimed at the general population or groups such as school children were designed to promote positive behaviours (e. g. healthy eating). Almost 50% (n = 48) of the reviews focussed on smoking (either prevention or cessation). Interventions that were most effective across a range of health behaviours included physician advice or individual counselling, and workplace- and school-based activities. Mass media campaigns and legislative interventions also showed small to moderate effects in changing health behaviours. Generally, the evidence related to short-term effects rather than sustained/longer-term impact and there was a relative lack of evidence on how best to address inequalities. Conclusions: Despite limitations of the review of reviews approach, it is encouraging that there are interventions that are effective in achieving behavioural change. Further emphasis in both primary studies and secondary analysis (e.g. systematic reviews) should be placed on assessing the differential effectiveness of interventions across different population subgroups to ensure that health inequalities are addressed.</p

Healthy Living after Cancer: A dissemination and implementation study evaluating a telephone-delivered healthy lifestyle program for cancer survivors

© 2015 Eakin et al. Background: Given evidence shows physical activity, a healthful diet and weight management can improve cancer outcomes and reduce chronic disease risk, the major cancer organisations and health authorities have endorsed related guidelines for cancer survivors. Despite these, and a growing evidence base on effective lifestyle interventions, there is limited uptake into survivorship care. Methods/Design: Healthy Living after Cancer (HLaC) is a national dissemination and implementation study that will evaluate the integration of an evidence-based lifestyle intervention for cancer survivors into an existing telephone cancer information and support service delivered by Australian state-based Cancer Councils. Eligible participants (adults having completed cancer treatment with curative intent) will receive 12 health coaching calls over 6 months from Cancer Council nurses/allied health professionals targeting national guidelines for physical activity, healthy eating and weight control. Using the RE-AIM evaluation framework, primary outcomes are service-level indicators of program reach, adoption, implementation/costs and maintenance, with secondary (effectiveness) outcomes of patient-reported anthropometric, behavioural and psychosocial variables collected at pre- and post-program completion. The total participant accrual target across four participating Cancer Councils is 900 over 3 years. Discussion: The national scope of the project and broad inclusion of cancer survivors, alongside evaluation of service-level indicators, associated costs and patient-reported outcomes, will provide the necessary practice-based evidence needed to inform future allocation of resources to support healthy living among cancer survivors. Trial registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) - ACTRN12615000882527(registered on 24/08/2015