The use of linked electronic health data to investigate the burden and outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia among older individuals in the United Kingdom.

The aim of this thesis was to use large linked electronic health datasets from primary and secondary care to better estimate the burden of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in older adults in the UK, and to identify the determinants of severe outcomes of these common infections. Hospitalisation for CAP is increasingly common in this older age group, and these patients remain at an elevated mortality risk for over a year after hospital discharge, making this an important area of study. CAP incidence was estimated at 7.99 episodes/1000 person-years (IQR:7.92-8.07/1000); rates were higher in men than women and rose strikingly with age. CAP incidence generally increased between 1997 and 2011, but this growth was attenuated when the rates were age-standardised. To separate trends in incidence from trends in treatment location, CAP episodes admitted to hospital within 28 days of diagnosis were compared to CAP episodes that were not hospitalised. A wide range of factors potentially associated with hospital admission were investigated, and 14 co-morbidities, five frailty factors, and four medications/vaccinations were identified. Despite adjusting for these factors, the average predicted probability of hospitalisation after CAP rose from 57% (1998-2000) to 86% (2009-2010), while duration of hospitalisation and 28-day mortality decreased. Finally, prognostic models were developed with the aim of assisting GPs in identifying CAP patients with an unexpectedly high mortality risk in the year after hospital discharge. Among 17 factors identified, increasing age, dementia, congestive heart failure, low weight, residential care and leukaemia/lymphoma were the strongest positive predictors of mortality, while being female, an ex-smoker and pneumococcal vaccination received more than a year ago had the strongest negative effects. The model showed a reasonable ability to distinguish between patients who died and survived. The linked data used in this study allowed greater capture of incident CAP episodes and thus better estimates of the burden of disease. They also provided enriched patient medical histories, enabling detailed examination of the determinants of hospitalisation or death after CAP. The results presented will be of use to both clinicians and health planners as the UK’s population ages, and burden of CAP increases. Further work is needed to fully understand the increasing hospitalisation trend seen, and to externally validate the prognostic models developed

Systematic review: Effects, design choices, and context of pay-for-performance in health care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pay-for-performance (P4P) is one of the primary tools used to support healthcare delivery reform. Substantial heterogeneity exists in the development and implementation of P4P in health care and its effects. This paper summarizes evidence, obtained from studies published between January 1990 and July 2009, concerning P4P effects, as well as evidence on the impact of design choices and contextual mediators on these effects. Effect domains include clinical effectiveness, access and equity, coordination and continuity, patient-centeredness, and cost-effectiveness.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The systematic review made use of electronic database searching, reference screening, forward citation tracking and expert consultation. The following databases were searched: Cochrane Library, EconLit, Embase, Medline, PsychINFO, and Web of Science. Studies that evaluate P4P effects in primary care or acute hospital care medicine were included. Papers concerning other target groups or settings, having no empirical evaluation design or not complying with the P4P definition were excluded. According to study design nine validated quality appraisal tools and reporting statements were applied. Data were extracted and summarized into evidence tables independently by two reviewers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred twenty-eight evaluation studies provide a large body of evidence -to be interpreted with caution- concerning the effects of P4P on clinical effectiveness and equity of care. However, less evidence on the impact on coordination, continuity, patient-centeredness and cost-effectiveness was found. P4P effects can be judged to be encouraging or disappointing, depending on the primary mission of the P4P program: supporting minimal quality standards and/or boosting quality improvement. Moreover, the effects of P4P interventions varied according to design choices and characteristics of the context in which it was introduced.</p> <p>Future P4P programs should (1) select and define P4P targets on the basis of baseline room for improvement, (2) make use of process and (intermediary) outcome indicators as target measures, (3) involve stakeholders and communicate information about the programs thoroughly and directly, (4) implement a uniform P4P design across payers, (5) focus on both quality improvement and achievement, and (6) distribute incentives to the individual and/or team level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>P4P programs result in the full spectrum of possible effects for specific targets, from absent or negligible to strongly beneficial. Based on the evidence the review has provided further indications on how effect findings are likely to relate to P4P design choices and context. The provided best practice hypotheses should be tested in future research.</p

Towards better guidance on caseload thresholds to promote positive tuberculosis treatment outcomes:a cohort study

BACKGROUND: In low-incidence countries, clinical experience of tuberculosis is becoming more limited, with potential consequences for patient outcomes. In 2007, the Department of Health released a guidance 'toolkit' recommending that tuberculosis patients in England should not be solely managed by clinicians who see fewer than 10 cases per year. This caseload threshold was established to try to improve treatment outcomes and reduce transmission, but was not evidence based. We aimed to assess the association between clinician or hospital caseload and treatment outcomes, as well as the relative suitability of making recommendations using each caseload parameter. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data for tuberculosis cases in England notified to Public Health England's Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system between 2003 and 2012 were extracted. Mean clinician and hospital caseload over the past 3 years were calculated and treatment outcomes grouped into good/neutral and unfavourable. Caseloads over time and their relationship with outcomes were described and analysed using random effects logistic regression, adjusted for clustering. RESULTS: In a fully adjusted multivariable model (34,707 cases)there was very strong evidence that management of tuberculosis by clinicians with fewer than 10 cases per year was associated with greater odds of an unfavourable outcome compared to clinicians who managed greater numbers of cases (cluster-specific odds ratio, 1.14; 95 % confidence interval, 1.05-1.25; P = 0.002). The relationship between hospital caseload and treatment outcomes was more complex and modified by a patient's place of birth and ethnicity. The clinician caseload association held after adjustment for hospital caseload and when the clinician caseload threshold was reduced down to one. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the relative ease of making recommendations at the hospital level and the greater reliability of recorded hospital versus named clinician, our results suggest that clinician caseload thresholds are more suitable for clinical guidance. The current recommended clinician caseload threshold is functional. Sensitivity analyses reducing the threshold indicated that clinical experience is pertinent even at very low average caseloads, which is encouraging for low burden settings

Islet transplantation from a nationally funded UK centre reaches socially deprived groups and improves metabolic outcomes

Acknowledgements We thank the transplant nurses involved with the Scottish Islet Transplant Programme (T. McGilvray, J. Davidson, M. Phillips and C. Jansen) for help with participant assessment. We thank the Scottish National Blood Transfusion Services including the Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics Team for HLA typing and antibody screening, and the Tissue and Cells Team (A. Timpson, L. Fraser, L. Irvine and P. Henry) for islet isolation and product release testing. We acknowledge the Departments of Transplantation, Diabetes and Interventional Radiology at NHS Lothian for all aspects of patient care and the organ procurement programme. We thank J. Shaw and A. Brooks from the Department of Regenerative Medicine for Diabetes at the University of Newcastle for advice regarding CGMS. C-peptide assays were performed by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, Core Biochemical Assay Laboratory. Funding: The Scottish Islet Transplant Programme is funded by the National Services Division. This research was funded by Diabetes UK (Biomedical and Psychosocial Outcomes of Islet Transplantation; Grant no. BDA 06/0003362), Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation, Diabetes Foundation, Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation and the Royal Infirmary Diabetes Treatment Trust Fund. Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Burden and Etiology of Community-Onset Pneumonia in the Aging Japanese Population: A Multicenter Prospective Study

Background: The increasing burden of pneumonia in adults is an emerging health issue in the era of global population aging. This study was conducted to elucidate the burden of community-onset pneumonia (COP) and its etiologic fractions in Japan, the world\u27s most aged society. Methods: A multicenter prospective surveillance for COP was conducted from September 2011 to January 2013 in Japan. All pneumonia patients aged ?15 years, including those with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP), were enrolled at four community hospitals on four major islands. The COP burden was estimated based on the surveillance data and national statistics. Results: A total of 1,772 COP episodes out of 932,080 hospital visits were enrolled during the surveillance. The estimated overall incidence rates of adult COP, hospitalization, and in-hospital death were 16.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.6 to 20.9), 5.3 (4.5 to 6.2), and 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) per 1,000 person-years (PY), respectively. The incidence rates sharply increased with age; the incidence in people aged ?85 years was 10-fold higher than that in people aged 15-64 years. The estimated annual number of adult COP cases in the entire Japanese population was 1,880,000, and 69.4% were aged ?65 years. Aspiration-associated pneumonia (630,000) was the leading etiologic category, followed by Streptococcus pneumoniae-associated pneumonia (530,000), Haemophilus influenzae-associated pneumonia (420,000), and respiratory virus-associated pneumonia (420,000), including influenza-associated pneumonia (30,000)