Operation and modelling of RO desalination process in batch mode

YesThe performance of a batch reverse osmosis (RO) desalination process in terms of permeate quantity and salinity as a function of feed pressure and feed salinity is evaluated by using laboratory experiments and process modelling. Special attention is paid to the water and salt permeability constants (Kw, Ks) which affect the permeate and salt flux across the membrane. Kw and Ks are found to be strongly pressure-dependent for the batch system which is in-line with earlier observations for continuous RO systems. However, the most important findings of this work are the dependence of Kw and Ks on feed salinity, something that have never been observed or reported in the literature. In order to better qualify these observations, further experiments with the batch system are conducted with a constant feed salinity so that the operating condition resembles that of a continuous RO process

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Long-Term Costs and Health Impact of Continued Global Fund Support for Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. Methods and Findings: Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to$1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5$150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or$200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020. Conclusions: Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models

Background Zimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future. Methods Three mathematical models describing Zimbabwe’s HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new infections and costs to a counterfactual without VMMC. Input assumptions were agreed in workshops with national stakeholders in 2015 and 2017. Results The VMMC program averted 2,600–12,200 infections (among men and women combined) by the end of 2016. This impact will grow as circumcised men are protected lifelong, and onward dynamic transmission effects, which protect women via reduced incidence and prevalence in their male partners, increase over time. If other prevention interventions remain at 2016 coverages, the VMMCs already performed will avert 24,400–69,800 infections (2.3–5% of all new infections) through 2030. If coverage targets are achieved by 2021 and maintained, the program will avert 108,000–171,000 infections (10–13% of all new infections) by 2030, costing $2,100–3,250 per infection averted relative to no VMMC. Annual savings from averted treatment needs will outweigh VMMC maintenance costs once coverage targets are reached. If Zimbabwe also achieves ambitious UNAIDS targets for scaling up treatment and prevention efforts, VMMC will reduce the HIV incidence remaining at 2030 by one-third, critically contributing to the UNAIDS goal of 90% incidence reduction. Conclusions VMMC can substantially impact Zimbabwe’s HIV epidemic in the coming years; this investment will save costs in the longer term

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

AIM: Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. METHODS: We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. RESULTS: Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice

Paper-based sensors for rapid detection of virulence factor produced by Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Pyocyanin is a toxin produced by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Here we describe a novel paper-based electrochemical sensor for pyocyanin detection, manufactured with a simple and inexpensive approach based on electrode printing on paper. The resulting sensors constitute an effective electrochemical method to quantify pyocyanin in bacterial cultures without the conventional time consuming pretreatment of the samples. The electrochemical properties of the paper-based sensors were evaluated by ferri/ferrocyanide as a redox mediator, and showed reliable sensing performance. The paper-based sensors readily allow for the determination of pyocyanin in bacterial cultures with high reproducibility, achieving a limit of detection of 95 nM and a sensitivity of 4.30 μA/μM in standard culture media. Compared to the similar commercial ceramic based sensors, it is a 2.3-fold enhanced performance. The simple in-house fabrication of sensors for pyocyanin quantification allows researchers to understand in vitro adaptation of P. aeruginosa infections via rapid screenings of bacterial cultures that otherwise are expensive and time-consuming

Understanding the impact of antibiotic therapies on the respiratory tract resistome: A novel pooled-template metagenomic sequencing strategy

Determining the effects of antimicrobial therapies on airway microbiology at a population-level is essential. Such analysis allows, for example, surveillance of antibiotic-induced changes in pathogen prevalence, the emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance, and the transmission of multi-resistant organisms. However, current analytical strategies for understanding these processes are limited. Culture- and PCR-based assays for specific microbes require the a priori selection of targets, while antibiotic sensitivity testing typically provides no insight into either the molecular basis of resistance, or the carriage of resistance determinants by the wider commensal microbiota. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing provides an alternative approach that allows the microbial composition of clinical samples to be described in detail, including the prevalence of resistance genes and virulence traits. While highly informative, the application of metagenomics to large patient cohorts can be prohibitively expensive. Using sputum samples from a randomised placebo-controlled trial of erythromycin in adults with bronchiectasis, we describe a novel, cost-effective strategy for screening patient cohorts for changes in resistance gene prevalence. By combining metagenomic screening of pooled DNA extracts with validatory quantitative PCR-based analysis of candidate markers in individual samples, we identify population-level changes in the relative abundance of specific macrolide resistance genes. This approach has the potential to provide an important adjunct to current analytical strategies, particularly within the context of antimicrobial clinical trials