Using genetic markers for disease resistance to improve production under constant infection pressure

Animals will show reduced production when exposed to a constant infection pressure unless they are fully resistant, the size of the reduction depending on the degree of resistance and the severity of infection. In this article, the use of QTL for disease resistance for improving productivity under constant infection pressure is investigated using stochastic simulation. A previously published model was used with two thresholds for resistance: a threshold below which production is not possible and a threshold above which production is not affected by the infection. Between thresholds, observed production under constant infection is a multiplicative function of underlying potential production and level of resistance. Some simplifications of reality were adopted in the model, such as no genetic correlation between potential production and resistance, the absence of influence of lack of resistance on reproductive capacity, and the availability of phenotypes in both sexes. Marker-assisted selection was incorporated by assuming a proportion of the genetic variance to be explained by the QTL, which thus is defined as a continuous trait. Phenotypes were available for production, not for resistance. The infection pressure may vary across time. Results were compared to mass selection on production under constant as well as intermittent infection pressure, where the infection pressure varied between but not within years. Selection started in a population with a very poor level of resistance. Incorporation of QTL information is valuable (i.e., the increase in observed production relative to mass selection) when a large proportion of the additive genetic variance is explained by the QTL (50% genetic variance explained) and when the heritability for resistance is low (h2R = 0.1). Under constant infection pressure, incorporating QTL information does not increase selection responses in observed production when the QTL effect explains less than 25% of the genetic variance. Under intermittent selection pressure, the use of QTL information gives a slightly greater increase in observed production in early generations, relative to mass selection on observed production, but still only when the QTL effect is large or the heritability for resistance is low. The additional advantage of incorporating QTL information is that use of (preventive) medical treatment is possible, or animals may be evaluated in uninfected environments

THE ROLE OF FRICTIONAL STRENGTH

[1] At a subduction zone the amount of friction between the incoming plate and the forearc is an important factor in controlling the dip angle of subduction and the structure of the forearc. In this paper, we investigate the role of the frictional strength of sediments and of the serpentinized peridotite on the evolution of convergent margins. In numerical models, we vary thickness of a serpentinized layer in the mantle wedge (15 to 25 km) and the frictional strength of both the sediments and serpentinized mantle (friction angle 1° to 15°, or static friction coefficient 0.017 to 0.27) to control the amount of frictional coupling between the plates. With plastic strain weakening in the lithosphere, our numerical models can attain stable subduction geometry over millions of years. We find that the frictional strength of the sediments and serpentinized peridotite exerts the largest control on the dip angle of the subduction interface at seismogenic depths. In the case of low sediment and serpentinite friction, the subduction interface has a shallow dip, while the subduction zone develops an accretionary prism, a broad forearc high, a deep forearc basin, and a shallow trench. In the high friction case, the subduction interface is steep, the trench is deeper, and the accretionary prism, forearc high and basin are all absent. The resultant free-air gravity and topographic signature of these subduction zone models are consistent with observations. We believe that the low-friction model produces a geometry and forearc structure similar to that of accretionary margins. Conversely, models with high friction angles in sediments and serpentinite develop characteristics of an erosional convergent margin. We find that the strength of the subduction interface is critical in controlling the amount of coupling at the seismogenic zone and perhaps ultimately the size of the largest earthquakes at subduction zones

Modeling Megathrust Earthquakes Across Scales: One‐way Coupling From Geodynamics and Seismic Cycles to Dynamic Rupture

Taking the full complexity of subduction zones into account is important for realistic modeling and hazard assessment of subduction zone seismicity and associated tsunamis. Studying seismicity requires numerical methods that span a large range of spatial and temporal scales. We present the first coupled framework that resolves subduction dynamics over millions of years and earthquake dynamics down to fractions of a second. Using a two‐dimensional geodynamic seismic cycle (SC) model, we model 4 million years of subduction followed by cycles of spontaneous megathrust events. At the initiation of one such SC event, we export the self‐consistent fault and surface geometry, fault stress and strength, and heterogeneous material properties to a dynamic rupture (DR) model. Coupling leads to spontaneous dynamic rupture nucleation, propagation, and arrest with the same spatial characteristics as in the SC model. It also results in a similar material‐dependent stress drop, although dynamic slip is significantly larger. The DR event shows a high degree of complexity, featuring various rupture styles and speeds, precursory phases, and fault reactivation. Compared to a coupled model with homogeneous material properties, accounting for realistic lithological contrasts doubles the amount of maximum slip, introduces local pulse‐like rupture episodes, and relocates the peak slip from near the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone to the updip limit. When an SC splay fault is included in the DR model, the rupture prefers the splay over the shallow megathrust, although wave reflections do activate the megathrust afterward

Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World.

This is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.This work was carried out under the program of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW). We are grateful to Chris Huntingford for his constructive comments that helped us to improve the manuscript. We would also like to acknowledge Michel Crucifix, Henk Dijkstra, and Peter Cox for their helpful comments. S.B. is eternally grateful to Nina Engelhardt and the University of Edinburgh for the inspiring working conditions

Are Interaction-free Measurements Interaction Free?

In 1993 Elitzur and Vaidman introduced the concept of interaction-free measurements which allowed finding objects without ``touching'' them. In the proposed method, since the objects were not touched even by photons, thus, the interaction-free measurements can be called as ``seeing in the dark''. Since then several experiments have been successfully performed and various modifications were suggested. Recently, however, the validity of the term ``interaction-free'' has been questioned. The criticism of the name is briefly reviewed and the meaning of the interaction-free measurements is clarified.Comment: 11 pages, 3 eps figures. Contribution to the ICQO 2000, Raubichi, Belaru

Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability-prospects and limitations

This is the final version of the article. Available from the European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record.We examine the relationship between the mean and the variability of Arctic sea-ice coverage and volume in a large range of climates from globally ice-covered to globally ice-free conditions. Using a hierarchy of two column models and several comprehensive Earth system models, we consolidate the results of earlier studies and show that mechanisms found in simple models also dominate the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice in complex models. In contrast to predictions based on very idealised dynamical systems, we find a consistent and robust decrease of variance and autocorrelation of sea-ice volume before summer sea ice is lost. We attribute this to the fact that thinner ice can adjust more quickly to perturbations. Thereafter, the autocorrelation increases, mainly because it becomes dominated by the ocean water's large heat capacity when the ice-free season becomes longer. We show that these changes are robust to the nature and origin of climate variability in the models and do not depend on whether Arctic sea-ice loss occurs abruptly or irreversibly. We also show that our climate is changing too rapidly to detect reliable changes in autocorrelation of annual time series. Based on these results, the prospects of detecting statistical early warning signals before an abrupt sea-ice loss at a "tipping point" seem very limited. However, the robust relation between state and variability can be useful to build simple stochastic climate models and to make inferences about past and future sea-ice variability from only short observations or reconstructions.This work was carried out under the programme of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW). We also acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. We thank Vasilis Dakos for helping to apply his early warnings R package and Chao Li for making available the MPI-ESM model output. S. B. gratefully acknowledges Arie Staal for his fruitful and revealing approaches to savour scientific achievements. We are also indebted to Till Wagner and Ian Eisenman for their valuable comments and their very amiable and cooperative spirit. Finally, we acknowledge two anonymous reviewers who helped us to improve the manuscript

Effectiveness of preoperative planning in the restoration of balance and view in ankylosing spondylitis

Object. The object of this study was to assess the effectiveness of preoperative planning in the restoration of balance and view angle in patients treated with lumbar osteotomy in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. The authors prospectively analyzed 8 patients with a thoracolumbar kyphotic deformity due to AS that was treated using a closing wedge osteotomy (CWO) of the lumbar spine to correct sagittal imbalance and horizontal view. Preoperative planning to predict postoperative balance, defined by the sagittal vertical axis (SVA) and the sacral endplate angle (SEA), and the view angle, defined by the chin-brow to vertical angle (CBVA), was performed using the ASKyphoptan computational program. Results. All patients were treated with a CWO at level L-4 and improved in balance and view angle. The mean correction angle was 35° (range 24-47°). The postoperative SEA improved from 21 to 36° for a mean correction of 15°. In addition, the SVA and CBVA improved significantly. Note, however, that the postoperative results did not exactly reflect the predicted values of the analyzed parameters. Conclusions. Preoperative planning for the restoration of balance and view angle in AS improves understanding of the biomechanical and clinical effects of a correction osteotomy of the lumbar spine. The adaptation of basic clinical and biomechanical principles to restore balance is advised in such a way that the individual SEA is corrected by 15° (maximum 40°) in relation to the horizon and C-7 is balanced exactly above the posterosuperior corner of the sacrum

Functional analysis of dsRNAs (L1, L3, L5, and M2) associated with isometric 34-nm virions of Agaricus bisporus (white button mushroom)

cDNA clones of dsRNAs associated with La France disease of Agaricus bisporus were isolated, Clones corresponding to L1 and L5 dsRNAs were sequenced. The deduced amino acid sequence of L1 dsRNA (1078 amino acids, M(r) 121K) showed significant homology with RNA-dependent RNA polymerases of other dsRNA viruses. The deduced amino acid sequence of L5 dsRNA (724 amino acids, M(r) 82K) showed no homology with known proteins. Amino acid sequences of tryptic digests of three virion-associated proteins were determined. The 34-nm virion-associated protein of M(r) 115K was encoded by the L1 dsRNA, thus identifying this protein as the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. The virion-associated protein of M(r) 90K was encoded by the previously sequenced L3 dsRNA. A cDNA clone of the previously sequenced M2 dsRNA was expressed in Escherichia coli and antibodies raised against this protein reacted only with a protein present in the cytoplasm of diseased A. bisporus fruit bodies but not in the 34-nm virions. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc