Strange Attractors in Dissipative Nambu Mechanics : Classical and Quantum Aspects

We extend the framework of Nambu-Hamiltonian Mechanics to include dissipation in $R^{3}$ phase space. We demonstrate that it accommodates the phase space dynamics of low dimensional dissipative systems such as the much studied Lorenz and R\"{o}ssler Strange attractors, as well as the more recent constructions of Chen and Leipnik-Newton. The rotational, volume preserving part of the flow preserves in time a family of two intersecting surfaces, the so called {\em Nambu Hamiltonians}. They foliate the entire phase space and are, in turn, deformed in time by Dissipation which represents their irrotational part of the flow. It is given by the gradient of a scalar function and is responsible for the emergence of the Strange Attractors. Based on our recent work on Quantum Nambu Mechanics, we provide an explicit quantization of the Lorenz attractor through the introduction of Non-commutative phase space coordinates as Hermitian $N \times N$ matrices in $R^{3}$. They satisfy the commutation relations induced by one of the two Nambu Hamiltonians, the second one generating a unique time evolution. Dissipation is incorporated quantum mechanically in a self-consistent way having the correct classical limit without the introduction of external degrees of freedom. Due to its volume phase space contraction it violates the quantum commutation relations. We demonstrate that the Heisenberg-Nambu evolution equations for the Quantum Lorenz system give rise to an attracting ellipsoid in the $3 N^{2}$ dimensional phase space.Comment: 35 pages, 4 figures, LaTe

Visual ecology of aphids – a critical review on the role of colours in host finding

We review the rich literature on behavioural responses of aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae) to stimuli of different colours. Only in one species there are adequate physiological data on spectral sensitivity to explain behaviour crisply in mechanistic terms. Because of the great interest in aphid responses to coloured targets from an evolutionary, ecological and applied perspective, there is a substantial need to expand these studies to more species of aphids, and to quantify spectral properties of stimuli rigorously. We show that aphid responses to colours, at least for some species, are likely based on a specific colour opponency mechanism, with positive input from the green domain of the spectrum and negative input from the blue and/or UV region. We further demonstrate that the usual yellow preference of aphids encountered in field experiments is not a true colour preference but involves additional brightness effects. We discuss the implications for agriculture and sensory ecology, with special respect to the recent debate on autumn leaf colouration. We illustrate that recent evolutionary theories concerning aphid–tree interactions imply far-reaching assumptions on aphid responses to colours that are not likely to hold. Finally we also discuss the implications for developing and optimising strategies of aphid control and monitoring

Genome-Wide Identification of Susceptibility Alleles for Viral Infections through a Population Genetics Approach

Viruses have exerted a constant and potent selective pressure on human genes throughout evolution. We utilized the marks left by selection on allele frequency to identify viral infection-associated allelic variants. Virus diversity (the number of different viruses in a geographic region) was used to measure virus-driven selective pressure. Results showed an excess of variants correlated with virus diversity in genes involved in immune response and in the biosynthesis of glycan structures functioning as viral receptors; a significantly higher than expected number of variants was also seen in genes encoding proteins that directly interact with viral components. Genome-wide analyses identified 441 variants significantly associated with virus-diversity; these are more frequently located within gene regions than expected, and they map to 139 human genes. Analysis of functional relationships among genes subjected to virus-driven selective pressure identified a complex network enriched in viral products-interacting proteins. The novel approach to the study of infectious disease epidemiology presented herein may represent an alternative to classic genome-wide association studies and provides a large set of candidate susceptibility variants for viral infections

Genomic analysis of the necrotrophic fungal pathogens Sclerotinia sclerotiorum and Botrytis cinerea

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Sclerotinia sclerotiorum and Botrytis cinerea are closely related necrotrophic plant pathogenic fungi notable for their wide host ranges and environmental persistence. These attributes have made these species models for understanding the complexity of necrotrophic, broad host-range pathogenicity. Despite their similarities, the two species differ in mating behaviour and the ability to produce asexual spores. We have sequenced the genomes of one strain of S. sclerotiorum and two strains of B. cinerea. The comparative analysis of these genomes relative to one another and to other sequenced fungal genomes is provided here. Their 38-39 Mb genomes include 11,860-14,270 predicted genes, which share 83% amino acid identity on average between the two species. We have mapped the S. sclerotiorum assembly to 16 chromosomes and found large-scale co-linearity with the B. cinerea genomes. Seven percent of the S. sclerotiorum genome comprises transposable elements compared to <1% of B. cinerea. The arsenal of genes associated with necrotrophic processes is similar between the species, including genes involved in plant cell wall degradation and oxalic acid production. Analysis of secondary metabolism gene clusters revealed an expansion in number and diversity of B. cinerea-specific secondary metabolites relative to S. sclerotiorum. The potential diversity in secondary metabolism might be involved in adaptation to specific ecological niches. Comparative genome analysis revealed the basis of differing sexual mating compatibility systems between S. sclerotiorum and B. cinerea. The organization of the mating-type loci differs, and their structures provide evidence for the evolution of heterothallism from homothallism. These data shed light on the evolutionary and mechanistic bases of the genetically complex traits of necrotrophic pathogenicity and sexual mating. This resource should facilitate the functional studies designed to better understand what makes these fungi such successful and persistent pathogens of agronomic crops.The Sclerotinia sclerotiorum genome project was supported by the USDA Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension Service (USDA-NRI 2004). Sclerotinia sclerotiorum ESTs were funded by a grant to JA Rollins from USDA specific cooperative agreement 58-5442-4-281. The genome sequence of Botrytis cinerea strain T4 was funded by Genoscope, CEA, France. M Viaud was funded by the “Projet INRA Jeune-Equipe”. PM Coutinho and B Henrissat were funded by the ANR to project E-Tricel (grant ANR-07-BIOE-006). The CAZy database is funded in part by GIS-IBiSA. DM Soanes and NJ Talbot were partly funded by the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council. KM Plummer was partially funded by the New Zealand Bio-Protection Research Centre, http://bioprotection.org.nz/. BJ Howlett and A Sexton were partially funded by the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation, www.grdc.com.au. L Kohn was partially funded by NSERC Discovery Grant (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada) - Grant number 458078. M Dickman was supported by the NSF grant MCB-092391 and BARD grant US-4041-07C. O Yarden was supported by BARD grant US-4041-07C. EG Danchin obtained financial support from the European Commission (STREP FungWall grant, contract: LSHB - CT- 2004 - 511952). A Botrytis Genome Workshop (Kaiserslautern, Germany) was supported by a grant from the German Science Foundation (DFG; HA1486) to M Hahn

Reporting bias in medical research - a narrative review

Reporting bias represents a major problem in the assessment of health care interventions. Several prominent cases have been described in the literature, for example, in the reporting of trials of antidepressants, Class I anti-arrhythmic drugs, and selective COX-2 inhibitors. The aim of this narrative review is to gain an overview of reporting bias in the medical literature, focussing on publication bias and selective outcome reporting. We explore whether these types of bias have been shown in areas beyond the well-known cases noted above, in order to gain an impression of how widespread the problem is. For this purpose, we screened relevant articles on reporting bias that had previously been obtained by the German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care in the context of its health technology assessment reports and other research work, together with the reference lists of these articles

Risk of adverse outcomes in patients with underlying respiratory conditions admitted to hospital with COVID-19:a national, multicentre prospective cohort study using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK

Background Studies of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have found varying mortality outcomes associated with underlying respiratory conditions and inhaled corticosteroid use. Using data from a national, multicentre, prospective cohort, we aimed to characterise people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital with underlying respiratory disease, assess the level of care received, measure in-hospital mortality, and examine the effect of inhaled corticosteroid use. Methods We analysed data from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study. All patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 across England, Scotland, and Wales between Jan 17 and Aug 3, 2020, were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Patients with asthma, chronic pulmonary disease, or both, were identified and stratified by age (<16 years, 16–49 years, and ≥50 years). In-hospital mortality was measured by use of multilevel Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medications (inhaled corticosteroids, short-acting β-agonists [SABAs], and long-acting β-agonists [LABAs]). Patients with asthma who were taking an inhaled corticosteroid plus LABA plus another maintenance asthma medication were considered to have severe asthma. Findings 75 463 patients from 258 participating health-care facilities were included in this analysis: 860 patients younger than 16 years (74 [8·6%] with asthma), 8950 patients aged 16–49 years (1867 [20·9%] with asthma), and 65 653 patients aged 50 years and older (5918 [9·0%] with asthma, 10 266 [15·6%] with chronic pulmonary disease, and 2071 [3·2%] with both asthma and chronic pulmonary disease). Patients with asthma were significantly more likely than those without asthma to receive critical care (patients aged 16–49 years: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·20 [95% CI 1·05–1·37]; p=0·0080; patients aged ≥50 years: adjusted OR 1·17 [1·08–1·27]; p<0·0001), and patients aged 50 years and older with chronic pulmonary disease (with or without asthma) were significantly less likely than those without a respiratory condition to receive critical care (adjusted OR 0·66 [0·60–0·72] for those without asthma and 0·74 [0·62–0·87] for those with asthma; p<0·0001 for both). In patients aged 16–49 years, only those with severe asthma had a significant increase in mortality compared to those with no asthma (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·17 [95% CI 0·73–1·86] for those on no asthma therapy, 0·99 [0·61–1·58] for those on SABAs only, 0·94 [0·62–1·43] for those on inhaled corticosteroids only, 1·02 [0·67–1·54] for those on inhaled corticosteroids plus LABAs, and 1·96 [1·25–3·08] for those with severe asthma). Among patients aged 50 years and older, those with chronic pulmonary disease had a significantly increased mortality risk, regardless of inhaled corticosteroid use, compared to patients without an underlying respiratory condition (adjusted HR 1·16 [95% CI 1·12–1·22] for those not on inhaled corticosteroids, and 1·10 [1·04–1·16] for those on inhaled corticosteroids; p<0·0001). Patients aged 50 years and older with severe asthma also had an increased mortality risk compared to those not on asthma therapy (adjusted HR 1·24 [95% CI 1·04–1·49]). In patients aged 50 years and older, inhaled corticosteroid use within 2 weeks of hospital admission was associated with decreased mortality in those with asthma, compared to those without an underlying respiratory condition (adjusted HR 0·86 [95% CI 0·80−0·92]). Interpretation Underlying respiratory conditions are common in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Regardless of the severity of symptoms at admission and comorbidities, patients with asthma were more likely, and those with chronic pulmonary disease less likely, to receive critical care than patients without an underlying respiratory condition. In patients aged 16 years and older, severe asthma was associated with increased mortality compared to non-severe asthma. In patients aged 50 years and older, inhaled corticosteroid use in those with asthma was associated with lower mortality than in patients without an underlying respiratory condition; patients with chronic pulmonary disease had significantly increased mortality compared to those with no underlying respiratory condition, regardless of inhaled corticosteroid use. Our results suggest that the use of inhaled corticosteroids, within 2 weeks of admission, improves survival for patients aged 50 years and older with asthma, but not for those with chronic pulmonary disease

Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London). FINDINGS: 74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model. INTERPRETATION: The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

Background: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. Methods: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. Results: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. Conclusions: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. Trial registration: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.</p

Exploration of Shared Genetic Architecture Between Subcortical Brain Volumes and Anorexia Nervosa

In MRI scans of patients with anorexia nervosa (AN), reductions in brain volume are often apparent. However, it is unknown whether such brain abnormalities are influenced by genetic determinants that partially overlap with those underlying AN. Here, we used a battery of methods (LD score regression, genetic risk scores, sign test, SNP effect concordance analysis, and Mendelian randomization) to investigate the genetic covariation between subcortical brain volumes and risk for AN based on summary measures retrieved from genome-wide association studies of regional brain volumes (ENIGMA consortium, n = 13,170) and genetic risk for AN (PGC-ED consortium, n = 14,477). Genetic correlations ranged from − 0.10 to 0.23 (all p > 0.05). There were some signs of an inverse concordance between greater thalamus volume and risk for AN (permuted p = 0.009, 95% CI: [0.005, 0.017]). A genetic variant in the vicinity of ZW10, a gene involved in cell division, and neurotransmitter and immune system relevant genes, in particular DRD2, was significantly associated with AN only after conditioning on its association with caudate volume (pFDR = 0.025). Another genetic variant linked to LRRC4C, important in axonal and synaptic development, reached significance after conditioning on hippocampal volume (pFDR = 0.021). In this comprehensive set of analyses and based on the largest available sample sizes to date, there was weak evidence for associations between risk for AN and risk for abnormal subcortical brain volumes at a global level (that is, common variant genetic architecture), but suggestive evidence for effects of single genetic markers. Highly powered multimodal brain- and disorder-related genome-wide studies are needed to further dissect the shared genetic influences on brain structure and risk for AN