B-mode Detection with an Extended Planck Mission

The Planck satellite has a nominal mission lifetime of 14 months allowing two complete surveys of the sky. Here we investigate the potential of an extended Planck mission of four sky surveys to constrain primordial B-mode anisotropies in the presence of dominant Galactic polarized foreground emission. An extended Planck mission is capable of powerful constraints on primordial B-modes at low multipoles, which cannot be probed by ground based or sub-orbital experiments. A tensor-scalar ratio of r=0.05 can be detected at a high significance level by an extended Planck mission and it should be possible to set a 95% upper limit on r of 0.03 if the tensor-scalar ratio is vanishingly small. Furthermore, extending the Planck mission to four sky surveys offers better control of polarized Galactic dust emission, since the 217 GHz frequency band can be used as an effective dust template in addition to the 353 GHz channel.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Cosmological distance indicators

We review three distance measurement techniques beyond the local universe: (1) gravitational lens time delays, (2) baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and (3) HI intensity mapping. We describe the principles and theory behind each method, the ingredients needed for measuring such distances, the current observational results, and future prospects. Time delays from strongly lensed quasars currently provide constraints on $H_0$ with < 4% uncertainty, and with 1% within reach from ongoing surveys and efforts. Recent exciting discoveries of strongly lensed supernovae hold great promise for time-delay cosmography. BAO features have been detected in redshift surveys up to z <~ 0.8 with galaxies and z ~ 2 with Ly-$\alpha$ forest, providing precise distance measurements and $H_0$ with < 2% uncertainty in flat $\Lambda$CDM. Future BAO surveys will probe the distance scale with percent-level precision. HI intensity mapping has great potential to map BAO distances at z ~ 0.8 and beyond with precisions of a few percent. The next years ahead will be exciting as various cosmological probes reach 1% uncertainty in determining $H_0$, to assess the current tension in $H_0$ measurements that could indicate new physics.Comment: Review article accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews (Springer), 45 pages, 10 figures. Chapter of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Ag

Comparison of pharmacopeial statistical methods applied in microbiological assay for antibiotics potency determination using parallel lines and three-dose level

Pharmaceutical equivalence studies, useful for checking the interchangeability of generic medicines and their respective innovator medicines, have been carried out in Brazil since 1999, as a consequence of the establishment of the generic medicine policy. For medicines containing antibiotics, microbiological assays are often the most appropriate method. However, the statistical methods applied in these assays are not widely known due to the difficult access to official codes and/or little knowledge of the statistical tools of analysis. Thus, the aim of this work was to compare the statistical methods for determining the potency of antibiotics through the cylinder-plate method using parallel lines and a three-dose level model, as described in the Brazilian Pharmacopeia (4th edition, 1988), British Pharmacopoeia 2011, European Pharmacopoeia (7th edition), The International Pharmacopoeia (4th edition), and United States Pharmacopeia (34th edition). The assay is illustrated with the antibiotic ofloxacin, and details on orthogonal coefficients, normality test, homogeneity of variance test, and detection of outliers are discussed. The calculations obtained by statistical analyses from different pharmacopeias lead to the same final interpretation. In practice, with the availability of alternative pharmacopeial methods, the analyst can choose the most appropriate statistical calculation to be used.Os estudos de equivalência farmacêutica, úteis na verificação da intercambialidade entre os medicamentos genéricos e respectivos medicamentos de referência, têm sido realizados no Brasil desde 1999, como consequência do estabelecimento da política de medicamentos genéricos. Para medicamentos contendo antibióticos, os ensaios microbiológicos são, muitas vezes, o método mais adequado. Entretanto, os métodos estatísticos aplicados nesses ensaios não são amplamente conhecidos devido à dificuldade de acesso aos compêndios oficiais e/ou pouca compreensão das ferramentas estatísticas de análises. Portanto, o objetivo desse trabalho foi comparar os métodos estatísticos para determinação de potência de antibióticos pelo delineamento por retas paralelas e três níveis de doses, descritos nas farmacopeias Brasileira 4. ed. (1988), Britânica 2011, Europeia 7. ed., Internacional 4. ed. e na Farmacopeia dos Estados Unidos 34. ed. (2011). O ensaio é exemplificado com o antibiótico ofloxacino e detalhes sobre coeficientes ortogonais, teste de normalidade, teste de homogeneidade de variância e detecção de outliers são discutidos. Os cálculos obtidos pelas análises estatísticas segundo as diferentes farmacopeias resultaram na mesma interpretação final. Na prática, métodos farmacopéicos alternativos permitem ao analista a escolha do cálculo estatístico mais apropriado a ser utilizado

Long COVID and cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study

Background Pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cardiovascular risk factors have been associated with an increased risk of complications following hospitalisation with COVID-19, but their impact on the rate of recovery following discharge is not known. Objectives To determine whether the rate of patient-perceived recovery following hospitalisation with COVID-19 was affected by the presence of CVD or cardiovascular risk factors. Methods In a multicentre prospective cohort study, patients were recruited following discharge from the hospital with COVID-19 undertaking two comprehensive assessments at 5 months and 12 months. Patients were stratified by the presence of either CVD or cardiovascular risk factors prior to hospitalisation with COVID-19 and compared with controls with neither. Full recovery was determined by the response to a patient-perceived evaluation of full recovery from COVID-19 in the context of physical, physiological and cognitive determinants of health. Results From a total population of 2545 patients (38.8% women), 472 (18.5%) and 1355 (53.2%) had CVD or cardiovascular risk factors, respectively. Compared with controls (n=718), patients with CVD and cardiovascular risk factors were older and more likely to have had severe COVID-19. Full recovery was significantly lower at 12 months in patients with CVD (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.62, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.89) and cardiovascular risk factors (aOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.86). Conclusion Patients with CVD or cardiovascular risk factors had a delayed recovery at 12 months following hospitalisation with COVID-19. Targeted interventions to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in patients with cardiovascular disease remain an unmet need

SARS-CoV-2-specific nasal IgA wanes 9 months after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and is not induced by subsequent vaccination

BACKGROUND: Most studies of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 focus on circulating antibody, giving limited insights into mucosal defences that prevent viral replication and onward transmission. We studied nasal and plasma antibody responses one year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, including a period when SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was introduced. METHODS: In this follow up study, plasma and nasosorption samples were prospectively collected from 446 adults hospitalised for COVID-19 between February 2020 and March 2021 via the ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. IgA and IgG responses to NP and S of ancestral SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron (BA.1) variants were measured by electrochemiluminescence and compared with plasma neutralisation data. FINDINGS: Strong and consistent nasal anti-NP and anti-S IgA responses were demonstrated, which remained elevated for nine months (p < 0.0001). Nasal and plasma anti-S IgG remained elevated for at least 12 months (p < 0.0001) with plasma neutralising titres that were raised against all variants compared to controls (p < 0.0001). Of 323 with complete data, 307 were vaccinated between 6 and 12 months; coinciding with rises in nasal and plasma IgA and IgG anti-S titres for all SARS-CoV-2 variants, although the change in nasal IgA was minimal (1.46-fold change after 10 months, p = 0.011) and the median remained below the positive threshold determined by pre-pandemic controls. Samples 12 months after admission showed no association between nasal IgA and plasma IgG anti-S responses (R = 0.05, p = 0.18), indicating that nasal IgA responses are distinct from those in plasma and minimally boosted by vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The decline in nasal IgA responses 9 months after infection and minimal impact of subsequent vaccination may explain the lack of long-lasting nasal defence against reinfection and the limited effects of vaccination on transmission. These findings highlight the need to develop vaccines that enhance nasal immunity. FUNDING: This study has been supported by ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. ISARIC4C is supported by grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Medical Research Council. Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre provided infrastructure support for this research. The PHOSP-COVD study is jointly funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute of Health and Care Research. The funders were not involved in the study design, interpretation of data or the writing of this manuscript

Cognitive and psychiatric symptom trajectories 2–3 years after hospital admission for COVID-19: a longitudinal, prospective cohort study in the UK

Background COVID-19 is known to be associated with increased risks of cognitive and psychiatric outcomes after the acute phase of disease. We aimed to assess whether these symptoms can emerge or persist more than 1 year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, to identify which early aspects of COVID-19 illness predict longer-term symptoms, and to establish how these symptoms relate to occupational functioning. Methods The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study of adults (aged ≥18 years) who were hospitalised with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 at participating National Health Service hospitals across the UK. In the C-Fog study, a subset of PHOSP-COVID participants who consented to be recontacted for other research were invited to complete a computerised cognitive assessment and clinical scales between 2 years and 3 years after hospital admission. Participants completed eight cognitive tasks, covering eight cognitive domains, from the Cognitron battery, in addition to the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire for depression, the Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy Fatigue Scale, and the 20-item Cognitive Change Index (CCI-20) questionnaire to assess subjective cognitive decline. We evaluated how the absolute risks of symptoms evolved between follow-ups at 6 months, 12 months, and 2–3 years, and whether symptoms at 2–3 years were predicted by earlier aspects of COVID-19 illness. Participants completed an occupation change questionnaire to establish whether their occupation or working status had changed and, if so, why. We assessed which symptoms at 2–3 years were associated with occupation change. People with lived experience were involved in the study. Findings 2469 PHOSP-COVID participants were invited to participate in the C-Fog study, and 475 participants (191 [40·2%] females and 284 [59·8%] males; mean age 58·26 [SD 11·13] years) who were discharged from one of 83 hospitals provided data at the 2–3-year follow-up. Participants had worse cognitive scores than would be expected on the basis of their sociodemographic characteristics across all cognitive domains tested (average score 0·71 SD below the mean [IQR 0·16–1·04]; p<0·0001). Most participants reported at least mild depression (263 [74·5%] of 353), anxiety (189 [53·5%] of 353), fatigue (220 [62·3%] of 353), or subjective cognitive decline (184 [52·1%] of 353), and more than a fifth reported severe depression (79 [22·4%] of 353), fatigue (87 [24·6%] of 353), or subjective cognitive decline (88 [24·9%] of 353). Depression, anxiety, and fatigue were worse at 2–3 years than at 6 months or 12 months, with evidence of both worsening of existing symptoms and emergence of new symptoms. Symptoms at 2–3 years were not predicted by the severity of acute COVID-19 illness, but were strongly predicted by the degree of recovery at 6 months (explaining 35·0–48·8% of the variance in anxiety, depression, fatigue, and subjective cognitive decline); by a biocognitive profile linking acutely raised D-dimer relative to C-reactive protein with subjective cognitive deficits at 6 months (explaining 7·0–17·2% of the variance in anxiety, depression, fatigue, and subjective cognitive decline); and by anxiety, depression, fatigue, and subjective cognitive deficit at 6 months. Objective cognitive deficits at 2–3 years were not predicted by any of the factors tested, except for cognitive deficits at 6 months, explaining 10·6% of their variance. 95 of 353 participants (26·9% [95% CI 22·6–31·8]) reported occupational change, with poor health being the most common reason for this change. Occupation change was strongly and specifically associated with objective cognitive deficits (odds ratio [OR] 1·51 [95% CI 1·04–2·22] for every SD decrease in overall cognitive score) and subjective cognitive decline (OR 1·54 [1·21–1·98] for every point increase in CCI-20). Interpretation Psychiatric and cognitive symptoms appear to increase over the first 2–3 years post-hospitalisation due to both worsening of symptoms already present at 6 months and emergence of new symptoms. New symptoms occur mostly in people with other symptoms already present at 6 months. Early identification and management of symptoms might therefore be an effective strategy to prevent later onset of a complex syndrome. Occupation change is common and associated mainly with objective and subjective cognitive deficits. Interventions to promote cognitive recovery or to prevent cognitive decline are therefore needed to limit the functional and economic impacts of COVID-19. Funding National Institute for Health and Care Research Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre, Wolfson Foundation, MQ Mental Health Research, MRC-UK Research and Innovation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research

A test for the simultaneous detection of two outliers among extreme values of small data sets

A simple test (QP-test) for the simultaneous detection of two outliers among extreme values of small data sets is described. This test is analogous and complements Dixon&apos; classic Q-test. It is based on the probability distribution of the product of two Qexp values (QP: quotient product). Each Qexp value is calculated from the data set considering the presence of one and ignoring the presence of the other suspect value. Critical QP-values, calculated by a stochastic (a Monte-Carlo) procedure, are given for data sets containing 5 to 16 observations (replicates) at 0.90, 0.95, and 0.99 confidence levels. Based on the same principle, tests for the simultaneous detection of more than two outliers can be readily designed. © 1993, Taylor &amp; Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved

Automated determination of detection limits and selectivity coefficients of ion-selective electrodes by using a microcomputer-controlled potentiometric system

The detection limit and the potentiometric selectivity coefficients of ion-selective electrodes are determined automatically with a microcomputer-controlled potentiometric system. Measurements of these parameters for three commercially available electrodes of the liquid membrane type (chloride, nitrate and calcium electrodes) gave results in good agreement with those reported in the literature. The non-linear least-squares fit evaluation of data (potential activities) and the selection of the appropriate transfer functions are described. The reproducibility of the results is discussed. © 1983

Estimation of type I error probability from experimental Dixon&apos;s &quot;Q&quot; parameter on testing for outliers within small size data sets

Common significance tests carried out using statistical software packages usually return to the user the probability p of type I error as the result. Based on p and the preset confidence level the user will decide on the acceptance or the rejection of the associated null hypothesis. Dixon&apos;s test (Q-test) is commonly used for the detection of an outlier within a set of N observations (typically: N = 3-12). Q-test can only be applied by comparing the experimental value of the statistic Q with tabulated critical Q-values corresponding to some standard values of p. Hence, for a given value of Q and a number of observations, N, the user knows only the range and not the value of the associated probability p of type I error (erroneous rejection). This is due to the lack of explicit expressions of the form p = F(Q,N). In this work, a simple stochastic (Monte Carlo) approach is presented for the estimation of p corresponding to a given experimental value of Q and size N of the data set. In addition, based on Dixon&apos;s equations, explicit expressions of p are given for N = 3 and 4. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved