Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-based approach has played in setting conservation priorities, it is surprising that it has undergone little empirical scrutiny. We compile an extensive global dataset of time series of abundance data for over 1300 vertebrate populations to provide the first major test of the predictability of population growth rates in nature. We divided each time series into assessment and response periods and examined the correlation between growth rates in the two time periods. In birds, population declines tended to be followed by further declines, but mammals, salmon, and other bony fishes showed the opposite pattern: past declines were associated with subsequent population increases, and vice versa. Furthermore, in these taxa subsequent growth rates were higher when initial declines were more severe. These patterns agreed with data simulated under a null model for a dynamically stable population experiencing density dependence. However, this type of result could also occur if conservation actions positively affected the population following initial declines—a scenario that our data were too limited to rigorously evaluate. This ambiguity emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying causes of population trajectories in drawing inferences about rates of decline in abundance

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force Consensus Proposal: Diagnostic approach to epilepsy in dogs

This article outlines the consensus proposal on diagnosis of epilepsy in dogs by the International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force. The aim of this consensus proposal is to improve consistency in the diagnosis of epilepsy in the clinical and research settings. The diagnostic approach to the patient presenting with a history of suspected epileptic seizures incorporates two fundamental steps: to establish if the events the animal is demonstrating truly represent epileptic seizures and if so, to identify their underlying cause. Differentiation of epileptic seizures from other non-epileptic episodic paroxysmal events can be challenging. Criteria that can be used to make this differentiation are presented in detail and discussed. Criteria for the diagnosis of idiopathic epilepsy (IE) are described in a three-tier system. Tier I confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on a history of two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures occurring at least 24 h apart, age at epileptic seizure onset of between six months and six years, unremarkable inter-ictal physical and neurological examination, and no significant abnormalities on minimum data base blood tests and urinalysis. Tier II confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and unremarkable fasting and post-prandial bile acids, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain (based on an epilepsy-specific brain MRI protocol) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis. Tier III confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and II and identification of electroencephalographic abnormalities characteristic for seizure disorders. The authors recommend performing MRI of the brain and routine CSF analysis, after exclusion of reactive seizures, in dogs with age at epileptic seizure onset 6 years, inter-ictal neurological abnormalities consistent with intracranial neurolocalisation, status epilepticus or cluster seizure at epileptic seizure onset, or a previous presumptive diagnosis of IE and drug-resistance with a single antiepileptic drug titrated to the highest tolerable dose

Cognitive and behavioral predictors of light therapy use

Objective: Although light therapy is effective in the treatment of seasonal affective disorder (SAD) and other mood disorders, only 53-79% of individuals with SAD meet remission criteria after light therapy. Perhaps more importantly, only 12-41% of individuals with SAD continue to use the treatment even after a previous winter of successful treatment. Method: Participants completed surveys regarding (1) social, cognitive, and behavioral variables used to evaluate treatment adherence for other health-related issues, expectations and credibility of light therapy, (2) a depression symptoms scale, and (3) self-reported light therapy use. Results: Individuals age 18 or older responded (n = 40), all reporting having been diagnosed with a mood disorder for which light therapy is indicated. Social support and self-efficacy scores were predictive of light therapy use (p's<.05). Conclusion: The findings suggest that testing social support and self-efficacy in a diagnosed patient population may identify factors related to the decision to use light therapy. Treatments that impact social support and self-efficacy may improve treatment response to light therapy in SAD. © 2012 Roecklein et al

Evolutionary stasis and lability in thermal physiology in a group of tropical lizards

Understanding how quickly physiological traits evolve is a topic of great interest, particularly in the context of how organisms can adapt in response to climate warming. Adjustment to novel thermal habitats may occur either through behavioural adjustments, physiological adaptation, or both. Here we test whether rates of evolution differ among physiological traits in the cybotoids, a clade of tropical Anolis lizards distributed in markedly different thermal environments on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. We find that cold tolerance evolves considerably faster than heat tolerance, a difference that results because behavioural thermoregulation more effectively shields these organisms from selection on upper than lower temperature tolerances. Specifically, because lizards in very different environments behaviourally thermoregulate during the day to similar body temperatures, divergent selection on body temperature and heat tolerance is precluded, whereas night-time temperatures can only be partially buffered by behaviour, thereby exposing organisms to selection on cold tolerance. We discuss how exposure to selection on physiology influences divergence among tropical organisms and its implications for adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force consensus proposal: Medical treatment of canine epilepsy in Europe

In Europe, the number of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) licensed for dogs has grown considerably over the last years. Nevertheless, the same questions remain, which include, 1) when to start treatment, 2) which drug is best used initially, 3) which adjunctive AED can be advised if treatment with the initial drug is unsatisfactory, and 4) when treatment changes should be considered. In this consensus proposal, an overview is given on the aim of AED treatment, when to start long-term treatment in canine epilepsy and which veterinary AEDs are currently in use for dogs. The consensus proposal for drug treatment protocols, 1) is based on current published evidence-based literature, 2) considers the current legal framework of the cascade regulation for the prescription of veterinary drugs in Europe, and 3) reflects the authors’ experience. With this paper it is aimed to provide a consensus for the management of canine idiopathic epilepsy. Furthermore, for the management of structural epilepsy AEDs are inevitable in addition to treating the underlying cause, if possible

A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne infectious disease in the inundation area of a tropical monsoon region

Flooding and inundation are annual events that occur during the rainy season in Cambodia, and inundation has a strong relationship with human health. This study simulated the coliform bacteria distribution using a hydraulic model and estimated the impact of inundation on public health using a dose–response model. The model parameters were calibrated using field survey data from Cambodia and obtained good agreement with the coliform group count distribution. The results suggest that the impact of inundation on human health is most noticeable in residential areas. The annual average risk of infection during medium-sized flood events is 0.21. The risk due to groundwater use ranges from 0.12 to 0.17 in inundation areas and reaches as high as 0.23 outside the inundation areas. The risk attributed to groundwater use is therefore higher than that for surface water use (0.02–0.06), except in densely populated areas at the city center. There is a high risk for infection with waterborne disease in residential areas, and the annual average risk during small flood events is 0.94. An assessment of possible countermeasures to reduce the risk shows that the control of inundation may bring more risk to public health in Cambodia. Shallower inundation water (<0.3 m) leads to a higher risk of infection, but if the depth is greater than 2 m, the risk is low in residential areas.The simulated results explain the spatial distributions of infection risk, which are vitally important for determining the highest priority places with relatively high risk and will be helpful for decision makers when considering the implementation of countermeasures

Prognostic Value of FDG-PET in Patients with Oropharyngeal Carcinoma Treated with Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of 2-deoxy-2-[F-18] fluoro-D-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) following concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on survival in patients with carcinoma of the oropharynx (OPC). Methods: Eighteen patients with primary OPC who underwent PET pre- and post-CRT were evaluated prospectively for survival. The prognostic performance of post-CRT PET and CT for recurrence was compared. Results: Patients with positive post-CRT PET exhibited significantly lower 2-year cause-specific survival and disease-free survival (50 % vs. 91%, PG0.05 and 0 % vs. 83%, PG0.0001); however, patients with positive post-CRT CT did not exhibit any significant difference (67 % vs. 83%, P= 0.416 and 50 % vs. 75%, P=0.070). Other factors, such as clinical and pre-CRT PET variables, also did not indicate any significant difference. The accuracy of prediction of residual and local recurrence for post-CRT PET and CT (local%/regional%) was 83%/94 % and 83%/78%, respectively. Conclusion: OPC patients with positive post-CRT PET exhibit poor survival. The prognostic accuracy of post-CRT PET is superior to that of CT. The results of post-CRT FDG-PET should be included in the management of the OPC patients

Concurrent acute illness and comorbid conditions poorly predict antibiotic use in upper respiratory tract infections: a cross-sectional analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Inappropriate antibiotic use promotes resistance. Antibiotics are generally not indicated for upper respiratory infections (URIs). Our objectives were to describe patterns of URI treatment and to identify patient and provider factors associated with antibiotic use for URIs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study was a cross-sectional analysis of medical and pharmacy claims data from the Pennsylvania Medicaid fee-for-service program database. We identified Pennsylvania Medicaid recipients with a URI office visit over a one-year period. Our outcome variable was antibiotic use within seven days after the URI visit. Study variables included URI type and presence of concurrent acute illnesses and chronic conditions. We considered the associations of each study variable with antibiotic use in a logistic regression model, stratifying by age group and adjusting for confounders.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 69,936 recipients with URI, 35,786 (51.2%) received an antibiotic. In all age groups, acute sinusitis, chronic sinusitis, otitis, URI type and season were associated with antibiotic use. Except for the oldest group, physician specialty and streptococcal pharyngitis were associated with antibiotic use. History of chronic conditions was not associated with antibiotic use in any age group. In all age groups, concurrent acute illnesses and history of chronic conditions had only had fair to poor ability to distinguish patients who received an antibiotic from patients who did not.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Antibiotic prevalence for URIs was high, indicating that potentially inappropriate antibiotic utilization is occurring. Our data suggest that demographic and clinical factors are associated with antibiotic use, but additional reasons remain unexplained. Insight regarding reasons for antibiotic prescribing is needed to develop interventions to address the growing problem of antibiotic resistance.</p