Estimating the Probability of Failure and Associated Risk of the California Bay Delta Levee System

Recent events in New Orleans have shown the magnitude of life loss and property damage that can occur due to the failure of man-made levees. The California Bay Delta and Sacramento levee systems in California pose a similar or greater level of risk to life and property. In order to effectively mitigate the hazard associated with levee failure a systematic evaluation of risk must be carried out. This paper presents preliminary research into the risk associated with the California Bay Delta. A comprehensive list of failure modes for man-made levees is presented. Preliminary empirical data on the temporal frequency of failure and the consequences of failure in the Bay Delta has been compiled. Also presented is the frequency of high water conditions, frequency of strong ground shaking, and a discussion of possible correlation of failure with these loading conditions. Based on preliminary empirical data, the distribution of the risk function is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations. The general objectives of this paper are to present an approach to levee risk analysis for the California Bay Delta, stimulate discussion, outline the data gaps that exist, and push for continued research on mitigating this hazard

The role of neuromedin U in adiposity regulation. Haplotype analysis in European children from the IDEFICS Cohort

Background and aims: Neuromedin U (NMU) is a hypothalamic neuropeptide with important roles in several metabolic processes, recently suggested as potential therapeutic target for obesity. We analysed the associations between NMU gene variants and haplotypes and body mass index (BMI) in a large sample of European children. Methods and results: From a large European multi-center study on childhood obesity, 4,528 children (2.0–9.9 years, mean age 6.0±1.8 SD; boys 52.2%) were randomly selected, stratifying by age, sex and country, and genotyped for tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs6827359, T:C; rs12500837, T:C; rs9999653,C:T) of NMU gene, then haplotypes were inferred. Regression models were applied to estimate the associations between SNPs or haplotypes and BMI as well as other anthropometric measures. BMI was associated with all NMU SNPs (p<0.05). Among five haplotypes inferred, the haplotype carrying the minor alleles (CCT, frequency = 22.3%) was the only associated with lower BMI values (beta = -0.16, 95%CI:-0.28,-0.04, p = 0.006; z-score, beta = -0.08, 95%CI:-0.14,-0.01, p = 0.019) and decreased risk of overweight/obesity (OR = 0.81, 95%CI:0.68,0.97, p = 0.020) when compared to the most prevalent haplotype (codominant model). Similar significant associations were also observed using the same variables collected after two years’ time (BMI, beta = -0.25, 95%CI:-0.41,-0.08, p = 0.004; z-score, beta = -0.10, 95%CI:-0.18,-0.03, p = 0.009; overweight/obesity OR = 0.81, 95%CI:0.66,0.99, p = 0.036). The association was age-dependent in girls (interaction between CCT haplotypes and age, p = 0.008), more evident between 7 and 9 years of age. The CCT haplotype was consistently associated with lower levels of fat mass, skinfold thickness, hip and arm circumferences both at T0 and at T1, after adjustment for multiple testing (FDR-adjusted p<0.05). Conclusions: This study shows an association between a NMU haplotype and anthropometric indices, mainly linked to fat mass, which appears to be age- and sex-specific in children. Genetic variations within or in linkage with this haplotype should be investigated to identify functional variants responsible for the observed phenotypic variation

The Higher Derivative Expansion of the Effective Action by the String-Inspired Method, Part I

The higher derivative expansion of the one-loop effective action for an external scalar potential is calculated to order O(T**7), using the string-inspired Bern-Kosower method in the first quantized path integral formulation. Comparisons are made with standard heat kernel calculations and with the corresponding Feynman diagrammatic calculation in order to show the efficiency of the present method.Comment: 13 pages, Plain TEX, 1 figure may be obtained from the authors, HD-THEP-93-4

A Gaussian Theory of Superfluid--Bose-Glass Phase Transition

We show that gaussian quantum fluctuations, even if infinitesimal, are sufficient to destroy the superfluidity of a disordered boson system in 1D and 2D. The critical disorder is thus finite no matter how small the repulsion is between particles. Within the gaussian approximation, we study the nature of the elementary excitations, including their density of states and mobility edge transition. We give the gaussian exponent $\eta$ at criticality in 1D and show that its ratio to $\eta$ of the pure system is universal.Comment: Revtex 3.0, 11 pages (4 figures will be sent through airmail upon request

Energy Loss of a Heavy Fermion in an Anisotropic QED Plasma

We compute the leading-order collisional energy loss of a heavy fermion propagating in a QED plasma with an electron distribution function which is anisotropic in momentum space. We show that in the presence of such anisotropies there can be a significant directional dependence of the heavy fermion energy loss with the effect being quite large for highly-relativistic velocities. We also repeat the analysis of the isotropic case more carefully and show that the final result depends on the intermediate scale used to separate hard and soft contributions to the energy loss. We then show that the canonical isotropic result is obtained in the weak-coupling limit. For intermediate-coupling we use the residual scale dependence as a measure of our theoretical uncertainty. We also discuss complications which could arise due to the presence of unstable soft photonic modes and demonstrate that the calculation of the energy loss is safe.Comment: 19 pages, 18 figures. v2 - Correction to normalization of numerical results; some figures modified as a result; discussion of role of unstable modes added along with two new figure

BB Intermeson Potentials in the Quark Model

In this paper we derive quark model results for scattering amplitudes and equivalent low energy potentials for heavy meson pairs, in which each meson contains a heavy quark. This "BB" system is an attractive theoretical laboratory for the study of the nuclear force between color singlets; the hadronic system is relatively simple, and there are lattice gauge theory (LGT) results for V_BB(r) which may be compared to phenomenological models. We find that the quark model potential (after lattice smearing) has qualitative similarities to the LGT potential in the two B*B* channels in which direct comparison is possible, although there is evidence of a difference in length scales. The quark model prediction of equal magnitude but opposite sign for I=0 and I=1 potentials also appears similar to LGT results at intermediate r. There may however be a discrepancy between the LGT and quark model I=1 BB potentials. A numerical study of the two-meson Schrodinger equations in the (bqbar)(bqbar) and (cqbar)(cqbar) sectors with the quark model potentials finds a single "molecule", in the I=0 BB* sector. Binding in other channels might occur if the quark model forces are augmented by pion exchange.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures, revtex and epsfig. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Hard-Loop Effective Action for Anisotropic Plasmas

We generalize the hard-thermal-loop effective action of the equilibrium quark-gluon plasma to a non-equilibrium system which is space-time homogeneous but for which the parton momentum distribution is anisotropic. We show that the manifestly gauge-invariant Braaten-Pisarski form of the effective action can be straightforwardly generalized and we verify that it then generates all n-point functions following from collisionless gauge-covariant transport theory for a homogeneous anisotropic plasma. On the other hand, the Taylor-Wong form of the hard-thermal-loop effective action has a more complicated generalization to the anisotropic case. Already in the simplest case of anisotropic distribution functions, it involves an additional term that is gauge invariant by itself, but nontrivial also in the static limit.Comment: 12 pages. Version 3: typo in (15) corrected, note added discussing metric conventions use

The vulnerability of tropical peatlands to oil and gas exploration and extraction

Funding: Leverhulme Trust (Grant Number(s): RPG-2018-306); UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant Number(s): NE/R000751/1, NE/R016860/1, NE/V018760/1); Scottish Research Council/University of St Andrews.Tropical peatlands store globally significant quantities of carbon and are ecologically and culturally important, but little is known about their vulnerability to oil and gas exploration and extraction. Here, we analyse the exposure of tropical peatlands to the activities of the petroleum industry and review what is known about the sensitivity of peatlands to these activities. We find that 8.3% (107,000 km2) of the total area of tropical peatlands overlaps with a 30-km buffer area around oil and gas infrastructure. Major areas of overlap include the Sumatra Basin (Indonesia), the Niger Delta (Nigeria) and the Putumayo-Oriente-Marañón Basin (Peru/Ecuador/Colombia). Documented environmental impacts include deforestation and habitat loss associated with the exploration and development of oil fields, and contamination from spills of oil and produced water (well brine). Peatlands, and the ecosystem services they provide, are sensitive to these impacts due to unique aspects of their ecology and hydrology, the easy spread of contamination by flowing water, the long-term storage of contaminants in peat, and the slow degradation of oil under anoxic, waterlogged conditions. Given the potential negative consequences for human health, resource security, biodiversity, and carbon storage, we propose a research agenda to provide an improved evidence base to support effective governance.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The Equation of State for Dense QCD and Quark Stars

We calculate the equation of state for degenerate quark matter to leading order in hard-dense-loop (HDL) perturbation theory. We solve the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkov equations to obtain the mass-radius relation for dense quark stars. Both the perturbative QCD and the HDL equations of state have a large variation with respect to the renormalization scale for quark chemical potential below 1 GeV which leads to large theoretical uncertainties in the quark star mass-radius relation.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Dissociation cross sections of ground-state and excited charmonia with light mesons in the quark model

We present numerical results for the dissociation cross sections of ground-state, orbitally- and radially-excited charmonia in collisions with light mesons. Our results are derived using the nonrelativistic quark model, so all parameters are determined by fits to the experimental meson spectrum. Examples of dissociation into both exclusive and inclusive final states are considered. The dissociation cross sections of several C=(+) charmonia may be of considerable importance for the study of heavy ion collisions, since these states are expected to be produced more copiously than the J/psi. The relative importance of the productions of ground-state and orbitally-excited charmed mesons in a pion-charmonium collision is demonstrated through the $\sqrt {s}$-dependent charmonium dissociation cross sections.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figure