On the Effectiveness of Feed-in Tariffs in the Development of Photovoltaic Solar

__Abstract__ Growing concern for climate change and rising scarcity of fossil fuels prompted governments to stimulate the development of renewables. This paper empirically tests whether feed-in tariff (FIT) policies have been effective in the development of photovoltaic solar (PV), explicitly taking into account structure and consistency of FITs. Panel data estimations are employed for 30 OECD member countries over the period 1990-2011. We find a positive effect of the presence of a FIT and the development of a country’s share of PV in the electricity-mix. This effect increases if policies are consistent. Tariff height is the most important characteristic of a FIT, but other characteristics such as cost level, duration of contract and restrictions on capacity levels can also not be neglected if the goal is to increase effectiveness of FITs

Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout

© The Author(s) 2021. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.G.R., J.V., A.N., M.C.G. were supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873, awarded to G.R. M.V. was supported by the European Union H2020 ERA project (No. 667824 - EXCELLtoINNOV). The contribution of C.H.v.D. was under the auspices of the US Department of Energy (contract number 89233218CNA000001) and supported by the National Institutes of Health (grant number R01-OD011095). MK acknowledges support from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Grant no. 10430022010001.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment

After the grounding of the Exxon Valdez, and its subsequent oil spill, all parties with interests in Prince William Sound (PWS) were eager to prevent another major pollution event. While they implemented several measures to reduce the risk of an oil spill, the stakeholders disagreed about the effectiveness of these measures and the potential effectiveness of further proposed measures. They formed a steering committee to represent all the major stakeholders in the oil industry, in the government, in local industry and among the local citizens. The steering committee hired a consultant team, who created a detailed model of the PWS system, integrating system simulation, data analysis, and expert judgment. The model was capable of assessing the current risk of accidents involving oil tankers operating in the Prince William Sound and of evaluating measures aimed at reducing this risk. The risk model showed that actions taken prior to the study had reduced the risk of oil spill by 75 percent and identified measures estimated to reduce the accident frequency by an additional 68 percent, including improving the safety management systems of the oil companies and stationing an enhanced capability tug, called the Gulf Service, at Hinchinbrook Entrance. In all, various stakeholders made multi-million dollar investments to reduce the risk of further oil spills based on the results of the risk assessment

Molecule-by-Molecule Writing Using a Focused Electron Beam

The resolution of lithography techniques needs to be extended beyond their current limits to continue the trend of miniaturization and enable new applications. But what is the ultimate spatial resolution? It is known that single atoms can be imaged with a highly focused electron beam. Can single atoms also be written with an electron beam? We verify this with focused electron-beam-induced deposition (FEBID), a direct-write technique that has the current record for the smallest feature written by (electron) optical lithography. We show that the deposition of an organometallic precursor on graphene can be followed molecule-by-molecule with FEBID. The results show that mechanisms that are inherent to the process inhibit a further increase in control over the process. Hence, our results present the resolution limit of (electron) optical lithography techniques. The writing of isolated, subnanometer features with nanometer precision can be used, for instance, for the local modification of graphene and for catalysis.</p

Infectious reactivation of cytomegalovirus explaining age- and sex-specific patterns of seroprevalence.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a herpes virus with poorly understood transmission dynamics. Person-to-person transmission is thought to occur primarily through transfer of saliva or urine, but no quantitative estimates are available for the contribution of different infection routes. Using data from a large population-based serological study (n = 5,179), we provide quantitative estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the transmissibility of primary infection, reactivation, and re-infection. Mixture models are fitted to age- and sex-specific antibody response data from the Netherlands, showing that the data can be described by a model with three distributions of antibody measurements, i.e. uninfected, infected, and infected with increased antibody concentration. Estimates of seroprevalence increase gradually with age, such that at 80 years 73% (95%CrI: 64%-78%) of females and 62% (95%CrI: 55%-68%) of males are infected, while 57% (95%CrI: 47%-67%) of females and 37% (95%CrI: 28%-46%) of males have increased antibody concentration. Merging the statistical analyses with transmission models, we find that models with infectious reactivation (i.e. reactivation that can lead to the virus being transmitted to a novel host) fit the data significantly better than models without infectious reactivation. Estimated reactivation rates increase from low values in children to 2%-4% per year in women older than 50 years. The results advance a hypothesis in which transmission from adults after infectious reactivation is a key driver of transmission. We discuss the implications for control strategies aimed at reducing CMV infection in vulnerable groups

Discordant bioinformatic predictions of antimicrobial resistance from whole-genome sequencing data of bacterial isolates: an inter-laboratory study.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a threat to public health. Clinical microbiology laboratories typically rely on culturing bacteria for antimicrobial-susceptibility testing (AST). As the implementation costs and technical barriers fall, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has emerged as a 'one-stop' test for epidemiological and predictive AST results. Few published comparisons exist for the myriad analytical pipelines used for predicting AMR. To address this, we performed an inter-laboratory study providing sets of participating researchers with identical short-read WGS data from clinical isolates, allowing us to assess the reproducibility of the bioinformatic prediction of AMR between participants, and identify problem cases and factors that lead to discordant results. We produced ten WGS datasets of varying quality from cultured carbapenem-resistant organisms obtained from clinical samples sequenced on either an Illumina NextSeq or HiSeq instrument. Nine participating teams ('participants') were provided these sequence data without any other contextual information. Each participant used their choice of pipeline to determine the species, the presence of resistance-associated genes, and to predict susceptibility or resistance to amikacin, gentamicin, ciprofloxacin and cefotaxime. We found participants predicted different numbers of AMR-associated genes and different gene variants from the same clinical samples. The quality of the sequence data, choice of bioinformatic pipeline and interpretation of the results all contributed to discordance between participants. Although much of the inaccurate gene variant annotation did not affect genotypic resistance predictions, we observed low specificity when compared to phenotypic AST results, but this improved in samples with higher read depths. Had the results been used to predict AST and guide treatment, a different antibiotic would have been recommended for each isolate by at least one participant. These challenges, at the final analytical stage of using WGS to predict AMR, suggest the need for refinements when using this technology in clinical settings. Comprehensive public resistance sequence databases, full recommendations on sequence data quality and standardization in the comparisons between genotype and resistance phenotypes will all play a fundamental role in the successful implementation of AST prediction using WGS in clinical microbiology laboratories

Estimating entropies from molecular dynamics simulations

The methods to compute the excess entropy and the entropy of solvation using liquid water as a test system were studied. The accuracy and convergence behavior of five methods based on thermodynamic integration and perturbation techniques was evaluated. Through the thermodynamic integration accurate entropy differences were obtained in which many copies of a solute were desolvated. Only two methods yield useful results, the calculation of solute-solvent entropy through thermodynamic integration and the calculation of solvation entropy through the temperature derivative of the corresponding free-energy difference, when one solute molecule is involved