Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960’s has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. Most attention in the literature is given to crop yields (Guiteras, 2009; Fishman, 2012; Auffhammer et al, 2011) and their ability to withstand precipitation shocks, in the presence of irrigation (Fishman, 2012). However, there remains limited evidence about how natural weather variability and realized irrigation outcomes are related. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world’s most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed crop-wise agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years from 1970-2004 for 311 districts across 19 major agricultural states in India. The source of agricultural data comes from the Village Dynamics in South Asia database at the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Weather data is sourced from the only long term continental scale daily observationally gridded precipitation and temperature dataset called APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation- Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources), that captures the spatial extent of the monsoon across the Himalayas, South and South-East Asia, and the Middle East in great detail. We use panel data approaches to control for unobserved and omitted variables that can confound the true impacts of weather variability on irrigation. Exploiting the exogenous inter-annual variability in the monsoon, our multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability but differentially so for shallow dug wells and deep tube wells. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas using three different bias-corrected climate model projections of monsoon climate for the years 2010 – 2050 under the strongest warming scenario ( business as usual scenario) RCP-8.5 from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, such as the Water Balance Model, that tracks water use and exchange between the ground, atmosphere, runoff and stream networks. This enables us to quantify supply of water required to meet irrigation needs from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, as well as unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. Preliminary results show that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements. By combining the strengths of the economic and hydrology components, this work highlights potential sustainable or unsustainable water use trajectories that different regions within India will face

Abnormal infant islet morphology precedes insulin resistance in PCOS-like monkeys.

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is prevalent in reproductive-aged women and confounded by metabolic morbidities, including insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. Although the etiology of PCOS is undefined, contribution of prenatal androgen (PA) exposure has been proposed in a rhesus monkey model as premenopausal PA female adults have PCOS-like phenotypes in addition to insulin resistance and decreased glucose tolerance. PA female infants exhibit relative hyperinsulinemia, suggesting prenatal sequelae of androgen excess on glucose metabolism and an antecedent to future metabolic disease. We assessed consequences of PA exposure on pancreatic islet morphology to identify evidence of programming on islet development. Islet counts and size were quantified and correlated with data from intravenous glucose tolerance tests (ivGTT) obtained from dams and their offspring. Average islet size was decreased in PA female infants along with corresponding increases in islet number, while islet fractional area was preserved. Infants also demonstrated an increase in both the proliferation marker Ki67 within islets and the beta to alpha cell ratio suggestive of enhanced beta cell expansion. PA adult females have reduced proportion of small islets without changes in proliferative or apoptotic markers, or in beta to alpha cell ratios. Together, these data suggest in utero androgen excess combined with mild maternal glucose intolerance alter infant and adult islet morphology, implicating deviant islet development. Marked infant, but subtle adult, morphological differences provide evidence of islet post-natal plasticity in adapting to changing physiologic demands: from insulin sensitivity and relative hypersecretion to insulin resistance and diminished insulin response to glucose in the mature PCOS-like phenotype

Fish assemblages at a deep-water sewage disposal site (DWD-106) : a final contract report

Deep-water dumpsite 106 is located over the continental slope and rise about 106 miles east of New Jersey (Fig. 1). From March 1986 to July 1992 approximately eight million wet metric tons of sewage sludge were disposed there per year (Robertson and Redford, 1992). Because of the potential impact of this dumping on deep-sea ecosystems, NOAA/NMFS contracted the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary (VIMS) to make otter-trawl collections in and around DWD 106 in 1990 and 1991. Specific objectives of these collections were: 1. To sample the demersal megafauna, especially fishes; 2. To provide frozen series of dominant species of fishes and invertebrates to NMFS for subsequent heavy metal and organic analyses; 3. To provide a description of the demersal fish community structure in the area; 4. To compare these data with similar data collected from 1973 to 1978 from DWD 106 and an adjacent area to the south near Norfolk submarine canyon. This final contract report summarizes the results of these studies

Effects of an Appearance-Focussed Versus a Health-Focussed Intervention on Men’s Attitudes Towards UV Exposure

This study investigated men’s experiences of an appearance-focussed, facial-ageing, intervention designed to increase sun protection intentions, compared to a health literature intervention. Seventy men took part, with thirty-five in each condition. The men completed questionnaires at baseline, post-intervention and six months post-intervention. There was a significant improvement in sun benefit attitudes, sun risk attitudes and sun protection intentions in both groups, although there was no significant difference between the conditions. At six months followup, however, there was a significant difference in sun protection use, with those in the facial-ageing intervention condition using significantly more protection. It is suggested that in the future, interventions that incorporate both health and appearance factors are designed, in order to utilise the strengths of both interventions

Language control and parallel recovery of language in individuals with aphasia

Background: The causal basis of the different patterns of language recovery following stroke in bilingual speakers is not well understood. Our approach distinguishes the representation of language from the mechanisms involved in its control. Previous studies have suggested that difficulties in language control can explain selective aphasia in one language as well as pathological switching between languages. Here we test the hypothesis that difficulties in managing and resolving competition will also be observed in those who are equally impaired in both their languages even in the absence of pathological switching. Aims: To examine difficulties in language control in bilingual individuals with parallel recovery in aphasia and to compare their performance on different types of conflict task. Methods & procedures: Two right-handed, non-native English-speaking participants who showed parallel recovery of two languages after stroke and a group of non-native English-speaking, bilingual controls described a scene in English and in their first language and completed three explicit conflict tasks. Two of these were verbal conflict tasks: a lexical decision task in English, in which individuals distinguished English words from non-words, and a Stroop task, in English and in their first language. The third conflict task was a non-verbal flanker task. Outcomes & Results: Both participants with aphasia were impaired in the picture description task in English and in their first language but showed different patterns of impairment on the conflict tasks. For the participant with left subcortical damage, conflict was abnormally high during the verbal tasks (lexical decision and Stroop) but not during the non-verbal flanker task. In contrast, for the participant with extensive left parietal damage, conflict was less abnormal during the Stroop task than the flanker or lexical decision task. Conclusions: Our data reveal two distinct control impairments associated with parallel recovery. We stress the need to explore the precise nature of control problems and how control is implemented in order to develop fuller causal accounts of language recovery patterns in bilingual aphasia

Evaluation of the benefits, harms and cost‐effectiveness of potential alternatives to iFOBT testing for colorectal cancer screening in Australia

The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) will fully roll‐out 2‐yearly screening using the immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Testing (iFOBT) in people aged 50 to 74 years by 2020. In this study, we aimed to estimate the comparative health benefits, harms, and cost‐effectiveness of screening with iFOBT, versus other potential alternative or adjunctive technologies. A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1‐Bowel, was used to simulate a total of 13 screening approaches involving use of iFOBT, colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), faecal DNA (fDNA) and plasma DNA (pDNA), in people aged 50 to 74 years. All strategies were evaluated in three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence, (ii) high (but imperfect) adherence, and (iii) low adherence. When assuming perfect adherence, the most effective strategies involved using iFOBT (annually, or biennially with/without adjunct sigmoidoscopy either at 50, or at 54, 64 and 74 years for individuals with negative iFOBT), or colonoscopy (10‐yearly, or once‐off at 50 years combined with biennial iFOBT). Colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) reductions for these strategies were 51–67(74–80)% in comparison with no screening; 2‐yearly iFOBT screening (i.e. the NBCSP) would be associated with reductions of 51(74)%. Only 2‐yearly iFOBT screening was found to be cost‐effective in all scenarios in context of an indicative willingness‐to‐pay threshold of A$50,000/life‐year saved (LYS); this strategy was associated with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of A$2,984/LYS–A$5,981/LYS (depending on adherence). The fully rolled‐out NBCSP is highly cost‐effective, and is also one of the most effective approaches for bowel cancer screening in Australia

Popular attitudes to memory, the body, and social identity : the rise of external commemoration in Britain, Ireland, and New England

A comparative analysis of samples of external memorials from burial grounds in Britain, Ireland and New England reveals a widespread pattern of change in monument style and content, and exponential growth in the number of permanent memorials from the 18th century onwards. Although manifested in regionally distinctive styles on which most academic attention has so far been directed, the expansion reflects global changes in social relationships and concepts of memory and the body. An archaeological perspective reveals the importance of external memorials in articulating these changing attitudes in a world of increasing material consumption