Derivation and validation of a simple, accurate and robust prediction rule for risk of mortality in patients with Clostridium difficile infection.

Published onlineJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: Clostridium difficile infection poses a significant healthcare burden. However, the derivation of a simple, evidence based prediction rule to assist patient management has not yet been described. METHOD: Univariate, multivariate and decision tree procedures were used to deduce a prediction rule from over 186 variables; retrospectively collated from clinical data for 213 patients. The resulting prediction rule was validated on independent data from a cohort of 158 patients described by Bhangu et al. (Colorectal Disease, 12(3):241-246, 2010). RESULTS: Serum albumin levels (g/L) (P = 0.001), respiratory rate (resps /min) (P = 0.002), C-reactive protein (mg/L) (P = 0.034) and white cell count (mcL) (P = 0.049) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Threshold levels of serum albumin ≤ 24.5 g/L, C- reactive protein >228 mg/L, respiratory rate >17 resps/min and white cell count >12 × 10(3) mcL were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. A simple four variable prediction rule was devised based on these threshold levels and when tested on the initial data, yield an area under the curve score of 0.754 (P < 0.001) using receiver operating characteristics. The prediction rule was then evaluated using independent data, and yield an area under the curve score of 0.653 (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Four easily measurable clinical variables can be used to assess the risk of mortality of patients with Clostridium difficile infection and remains robust with respect to independent data.This work was funded by University of Exeter, Systems Biology Initiative, a small grants fund from the RD&E NHS Trust and The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula (PenCLAHRC). This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health in England

Uncertainties and opportunities in delivering environmentally sustainable surgery:the surgeons' view

Surgery is a carbon‐heavy activity and creates a high volume of waste. Surgical teams around the world want to deliver more environmentally sustainable surgery but are unsure what to do and how to create change. There are many interventions available, but resources and time are limited. Capital investment into healthcare and engagement of senior management are challenging. However, frontline teams can change behaviours and drive wider change. Patients have a voice here too, as they would like to ensure their surgery does not harm their local community but are concerned about the effects on them when changes are made. Environmentally sustainable surgery is at the start of its journey. Surgeons need to rapidly upskill their generic knowledge base, identify which measures they can implement locally and take part in national research programmes. Surgical teams in the NHS have the chance to create a world‐leading programme that can bring change to hospitals around the world. This article provides an overview of how surgeons see the surgical team being involved in environmentally sustainable surgery

Protocol for a multicentre, prospective, population-based cohort study of variation in practice of cholecystectomy and surgical outcomes (The CholeS study)

INTRODUCTION: Cholecystectomy is one of the most common general surgical operations performed. Despite level one evidence supporting the role of cholecystectomy in the management of specific gallbladder diseases, practice varies between surgeons and hospitals. It is unknown whether these variations account for the differences in surgical outcomes seen in population-level retrospective data sets. This study aims to investigate surgical outcomes following acute, elective and delayed cholecystectomies in a multicentre, contemporary, prospective, population-based cohort. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: UK and Irish hospitals performing cholecystectomies will be recruited utilising trainee-led research collaboratives. Two months of consecutive, adult patient data will be included. The primary outcome measure of all-cause 30-day readmission rate will be used in this study. Thirty-day complication rates, bile leak rate, common bile duct injury, conversion to open surgery, duration of surgery and length of stay will be measured as secondary outcomes. Prospective data on over 8000 procedures is anticipated. Individual hospitals will be surveyed to determine local policies and service provision. Variations in outcomes will be investigated using regression modelling to adjust for confounders. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research ethics approval is not required for this study and has been confirmed by the online National Research Ethics Service (NRES) decision tool. This novel study will investigate how hospital-level surgical provision can affect patient outcomes, using a cross-sectional methodology. The results are essential to inform commissioning groups and implement changes within the National Health Service (NHS). Dissemination of the study protocol is primarily through the trainee-led research collaboratives and the Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons (AUGIS). Individual centres will have access to their own results and the collective results of the study will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at relevant surgical conferences

Exercise and aerobic capacity in individuals with spinal cord injury:A systematic review with meta-analysis and meta-regression

BACKGROUND: A low level of cardiorespiratory fitness [CRF; defined as peak oxygen uptake (V̇O2peak) or peak power output (PPO)] is a widely reported consequence of spinal cord injury (SCI) and a major risk factor associated with chronic disease. However, CRF can be modified by exercise. This systematic review with meta-analysis and meta-regression aimed to assess whether certain SCI characteristics and/or specific exercise considerations are moderators of changes in CRF.METHODS AND FINDINGS: Databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and Web of Science) were searched from inception to March 2023. A primary meta-analysis was conducted including randomised controlled trials (RCTs; exercise interventions lasting &gt;2 weeks relative to control groups). A secondary meta-analysis pooled independent exercise interventions &gt;2 weeks from longitudinal pre-post and RCT studies to explore whether subgroup differences in injury characteristics and/or exercise intervention parameters explained CRF changes. Further analyses included cohort, cross-sectional, and observational study designs. Outcome measures of interest were absolute (AV̇O2peak) or relative V̇O2peak (RV̇O2peak), and/or PPO. Bias/quality was assessed via The Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 and the National Institute of Health Quality Assessment Tools. Certainty of the evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Random effects models were used in all meta-analyses and meta-regressions. Of 21,020 identified records, 120 studies comprising 29 RCTs, 67 pre-post studies, 11 cohort, 7 cross-sectional, and 6 observational studies were included. The primary meta-analysis revealed significant improvements in AV̇O2peak [0.16 (0.07, 0.25) L/min], RV̇O2peak [2.9 (1.8, 3.9) mL/kg/min], and PPO [9 (5, 14) W] with exercise, relative to controls (p &lt; 0.001). Ninety-six studies (117 independent exercise interventions comprising 1,331 adults with SCI) were included in the secondary, pooled meta-analysis which demonstrated significant increases in AV̇O2peak [0.22 (0.17, 0.26) L/min], RV̇O2peak [2.8 (2.2, 3.3) mL/kg/min], and PPO [11 (9, 13) W] (p &lt; 0.001) following exercise interventions. There were subgroup differences for RV̇O2peak based on exercise modality (p = 0.002) and intervention length (p = 0.01), but there were no differences for AV̇O2peak. There were subgroup differences (p ≤ 0.018) for PPO based on time since injury, neurological level of injury, exercise modality, and frequency. The meta-regression found that studies with a higher mean age of participants were associated with smaller changes in AV̇O2peak and RV̇O2peak (p &lt; 0.10). GRADE indicated a moderate level of certainty in the estimated effect for RV̇O2peak, but low levels for AV̇O2peak and PPO. This review may be limited by the small number of RCTs, which prevented a subgroup analysis within this specific study design.CONCLUSIONS: Our primary meta-analysis confirms that performing exercise &gt;2 weeks results in significant improvements to AV̇O2peak, RV̇O2peak, and PPO in individuals with SCI. The pooled meta-analysis subgroup comparisons identified that exercise interventions lasting up to 12 weeks yield the greatest change in RV̇O2peak. Upper-body aerobic exercise and resistance training also appear the most effective at improving RV̇O2peak and PPO. Furthermore, acutely injured, individuals with paraplegia, exercising for ≥3 sessions/week will likely experience the greatest change in PPO. Ageing seemingly diminishes the adaptive CRF responses to exercise training in individuals with SCI.REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42018104342.</p

Academic requirements for Certificate of Completion of Training in surgical training: Consensus recommendations from the Association of Surgeons in Training/National Research Collaborative Consensus Group.

BACKGROUND: Surgical trainees are expected to demonstrate academic achievement in order to obtain their certificate of completion of training (CCT). These standards are set by the Joint Committee on Surgical Training (JCST) and specialty advisory committees (SAC). The standards are not equivalent across all surgical specialties and recognise different achievements as evidence. They do not recognise changes in models of research and focus on outcomes rather than process. The Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) and National Research Collaborative (NRC) set out to develop progressive, consistent and flexible evidence set for academic requirements at CCT. METHODS: A modified-Delphi approach was used. An expert group consisting of representatives from the ASiT and the NRC undertook iterative review of a document proposing changes to requirements. This was circulated amongst wider stakeholders. After ten iterations, an open meeting was held to discuss these proposals. Voting on statements was performed using a 5-point Likert Scale. Each statement was voted on twice, with ≥80% of votes in agreement meaning the statement was approved. The results of this vote were used to propose core and optional academic requirements for CCT. RESULTS: Online discussion concluded after ten rounds. At the consensus meeting, statements were voted on by 25 delegates from across surgical specialties and training-grades. The group strongly favoured acquisition of 'Good Clinical Practice' training and research methodology training as CCT requirements. The group agreed that higher degrees, publications in any author position (including collaborative authorship), recruiting patients to a study or multicentre audit and presentation at a national or international meeting could be used as evidence for the purpose of CCT. The group agreed on two essential 'core' requirements (GCP and methodology training) and two of a menu of four 'additional' requirements (publication with any authorship position, presentation, recruitment of patients to a multicentre study and completion of a higher degree), which should be completed in order to attain CCT. CONCLUSION: This approach has engaged stakeholders to produce a progressive set of academic requirements for CCT, which are applicable across surgical specialties. Flexibility in requirements whilst retaining a high standard of evidence is desirable

The impact of preoperative oral nutrition supplementation on outcomes in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery for cancer in low- and middle-income countries:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Malnutrition is an independent predictor for postoperative complications in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We systematically reviewed evidence on the impact of preoperative oral nutrition supplementation (ONS) on patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery in LMICs. We searched EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, WHO Global Index Medicus, SciELO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS) databases from inception to March 21, 2022 for randomised controlled trials evaluating preoperative ONS in gastrointestinal cancer within LMICs. We evaluated the impact of ONS on all postoperative outcomes using random-effects meta-analysis. Seven studies reported on 891 patients (446 ONS group, 445 control group) undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer. Preoperative ONS reduced all cause postoperative surgical complications (risk ratio (RR) 0.53, 95% CI 0.46–0.60, P < 0.001, I 2 = 0%, n = 891), infection (0.52, 0.40–0.67, P = 0.008, I 2 = 0%, n = 570) and all-cause mortality (0.35, 0.26–0.47, P = 0.014, I 2 = 0%, n = 588). Despite heterogeneous populations and baseline rates, absolute risk ratio (ARR) was reduced for all cause (pooled effect −0.14, −0.22 to −0.06, P = 0.006; number needed to treat (NNT) 7) and infectious complications (−0.13, −0.22 to −0.06, P < 0.001; NNT 8). Preoperative nutrition in patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery in LMICs demonstrated consistently strong and robust treatment effects across measured outcomes. However additional higher quality research, with particular focus within African populations, are urgently required

Can we <i>S</i>ave the rectum by watchful waiting or <i>T</i>rans<i>A</i>nal microsurgery following (chemo) <i>R</i>adiotherapy versus total mesorectal excision for early <i>RE</i>ctal <i>C</i>ancer (STAR-TREC study)?::protocol for a multicentre, randomised feasibility study

Introduction Total mesorectal excision (TME) is the highly effective standard treatment for rectal cancer but is associated with significant morbidity and may be overtreatment for low-risk cancers. This study is designed to determine the feasibility of international recruitment in a study comparing organ-saving approaches versus standard TME surgery. Methods and analysis STAR-TREC trial is a multicentre international randomised, three-arm parallel, phase II feasibility study in patients with biopsy-proven adenocarcinoma of the rectum. The trial is coordinated from Birmingham, UK with national hubs in Radboudumc (the Netherlands) and Odense University Hospital Svendborg UMC (Denmark). Patients with rectal cancer, staged by CT and MRI as ≤cT3b (up to 5 mm of extramural spread) N0 M0 can be included. Patients will be randomised to either standard TME surgery (control), organ-saving treatment using long-course concurrent chemoradiation or organ-saving treatment using short-course radiotherapy. For patients treated with an organ-saving strategy, clinical response to (chemo)radiotherapy determines the next treatment step. An active surveillance regime will be performed in the case of a complete clinical regression. In the case of incomplete clinical regression, patients will proceed to local excision using an optimised platform such as transanal endoscopic microsurgery or other transanal techniques (eg, transanal endoscopic operation or transanal minimally invasive surgery). The primary endpoint of this phase II study is to demonstrate sufficient international recruitment in order to sustain a phase III study incorporating pelvic failure as the primary endpoint. Success in phase II is defined as randomisation of at least four cases per month internationally in year 1, rising to at least six cases per month internationally during year 2

Elective surgery system strengthening: development, measurement, and validation of the surgical preparedness index across 1632 hospitals in 119 countries

Background: The 2015 Lancet Commission on global surgery identified surgery and anaesthesia as indispensable parts of holistic health-care systems. However, COVID-19 exposed the fragility of planned surgical services around the world, which have also been neglected in pandemic recovery planning. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel index to support local elective surgical system strengthening and address growing backlogs. Methods: First, we performed an international consultation through a four-stage consensus process to develop a multidomain index for hospital-level assessment (surgical preparedness index; SPI). Second, we measured surgical preparedness across a global network of hospitals in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) to explore the distribution of the SPI at national, subnational, and hospital levels. Finally, using COVID-19 as an example of an external system shock, we compared hospitals' SPI to their planned surgical volume ratio (SVR; ie, operations for which the decision for surgery was made before hospital admission), calculated as the ratio of the observed surgical volume over a 1-month assessment period between June 6 and Aug 5, 2021, against the expected surgical volume based on hospital administrative data from the same period in 2019 (ie, a pre-pandemic baseline). A linear mixed-effects regression model was used to determine the effect of increasing SPI score. Findings: In the first phase, from a longlist of 103 candidate indicators, 23 were prioritised as core indicators of elective surgical system preparedness by 69 clinicians (23 [33%] women; 46 [67%] men; 41 from HICs, 22 from MICs, and six from LICs) from 32 countries. The multidomain SPI included 11 indicators on facilities and consumables, two on staffing, two on prioritisation, and eight on systems. Hospitals were scored from 23 (least prepared) to 115 points (most prepared). In the second phase, surgical preparedness was measured in 1632 hospitals by 4714 clinicians from 119 countries. 745 (45·6%) of 1632 hospitals were in MICs or LICs. The mean SPI score was 84·5 (95% CI 84·1–84·9), which varied between HIC (88·5 [89·0–88·0]), MIC (81·8 [82·5–81·1]), and LIC (66·8 [64·9–68·7]) settings. In the third phase, 1217 (74·6%) hospitals did not maintain their expected SVR during the COVID-19 pandemic, of which 625 (51·4%) were from HIC, 538 (44·2%) from MIC, and 54 (4·4%) from LIC settings. In the mixed-effects model, a 10-point increase in SPI corresponded to a 3·6% (95% CI 3·0–4·1; p<0·0001) increase in SVR. This was consistent in HIC (4·8% [4·1–5·5]; p<0·0001), MIC (2·8 [2·0–3·7]; p<0·0001), and LIC (3·8 [1·3–6·7%]; p<0·0001) settings. Interpretation: The SPI contains 23 indicators that are globally applicable, relevant across different system stressors, vary at a subnational level, and are collectable by front-line teams. In the case study of COVID-19, a higher SPI was associated with an increased planned surgical volume ratio independent of country income status, COVID-19 burden, and hospital type. Hospitals should perform annual self-assessment of their surgical preparedness to identify areas that can be improved, create resilience in local surgical systems, and upscale capacity to address elective surgery backlogs. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery, NIHR Academy, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel Research UK, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, and Medtronic