Early machine learning prediction of hospitalized patients at low risk of respiratory deterioration or mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: Derivation and validation of a multivariable model

Current prognostic tools for pneumonia predominantly focus on mortality, often neglecting other crucial outcomes such as the need for advanced respiratory support. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a tool that predicts the early risk of non-occurrence of respiratory deterioration or mortality. We conducted a single-center, retrospective cohort study involving hospitalized adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and acute hypoxic respiratory failure from January 2009 to December 2019 (n = 4379). We employed the gradient boosting machine (GBM) learning to create a model that estimates the likelihood of patients requiring advanced respiratory support (high flow nasal cannula [HFNC], non-invasive mechanical ventilation [NIMV], and invasive mechanical ventilation [IMV]) or facing mortality during hospitalization. This model utilized readily available data including demographic, physiologic, and laboratory data, sourced from electronic health records and obtained within the first six hours of admission. Out of the cohort, 890 patients (25.2%) either required advanced respiratory support or died during their hospital stay. Our predictive model displayed superior discrimination and higher sensitivity (cross-validation C-statistic = 0.71; specificity = 0.56; sensitivity = 0.72) compared to the pneumonia severity index (PSI) (C-statistic = 0.65; specificity = 0.91; sensitivity = 0.24; P value < 0.001), while maintaining a negative predictive value (NPV) of approximately 0.85. These data demonstrate that our machine learning model predicted the non-occurrence of respiratory deterioration or mortality among hospitalized CAP patients more accurately than the PSI. The enhanced sensitivity of this model holds potential for reliably excluding low-risk patients from pneumonia clinical trials

The Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio and Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

We aimed to assess the prognostic role of the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) via a single-center retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients from 1/2009 to 12/2019. Patients were dichotomized into lower NLR (≤12) and higher NLR (>12). The primary outcome was mortality. ICU admission and hospital- and ICU-free days were secondary outcomes. The pneumonia severity index (PSI) and the NLR’s ability to predict outcomes was also tested. An NLR ≤12 was observed in 2513 (62.2%) patients and >12 in 1526 (37.8%). After adjusting for PSI, the NLR was not associated with hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.115; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.774, 1.606; p = 0.559), but it was associated with a higher risk of ICU admission (OR 1.405; 95% CI 1.216, 1.624; p p = 0.4476). The PSI’s performance in predicting ICU admission was also acceptable (AUC 0.75; 95% CI 0.74, 0.77) and improved by including the NLR (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.74, 0.77, p = 0.008), although with limited clinical significance. The NLR was not superior to the PSI for predicting mortality in hospitalized CAP patients

Does Low FEV1 in Addition to Fixed Ratio and/or Lower Limit of Normal of FEV1/FVC Improve Prediction of Mortality in COPD? The NHANES-III-linked-mortality Cohort

Purpose: There is presently an ongoing debate on the relative merits of suggested criteria for spirometric airway obstruction. This study tests the null hypothesis that no superiority exists with the use of fixed ratio (FR) of forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) \u3c 0.7 versus less than lower limit predicted (LLN) criteria with or without FEV1 \u3c80% predicted in regards to future mortality. Methods: In 1988–1994 the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) measured FEV1 and FVC with mortality follow-up data through December 31, 2011. For this survival analysis 7472 persons aged 40 and over with complete data formed the analytic sample. Results: There were a total of 3554 deaths. Weighted Cox proportional hazards regression revealed an increased hazard ratio in persons with both fixed ratio and lower limit of normal with a low FEV1 (1.79, p \u3c 0.0001), in those with fixed ratio only with a low FEV1 (1.77, p \u3c 0.0001), in those with abnormal fixed ratio only with a normal FEV1 (1.28, p \u3c 0.0001) compared with persons with no airflow obstruction (reference group). These remained significant after adjusting for demographic variables and other confounding variables. Conclusions: The addition of FEV1 \u3c 80% of predicted increased the prognostic power of the fixed ratio \u3c0.7 and/or below the lower limit of predicted criteria for airway obstruction

Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. METHODS: We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (-7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma. INTERPRETATION: Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Efficacy and adverse events profile of videolaryngoscopy in critically ill patients: subanalysis of the INTUBE study

Background: Tracheal intubation is a high-risk procedure in the critically ill, with increased intubation failure rates and a high risk of other adverse events. Videolaryngoscopy might improve intubation outcomes in this population, but evidence remains conflicting, and its impact on adverse event rates is debated.Methods: This is a subanalysis of a large international prospective cohort of critically ill patients (INTUBE Study) performed from 1 October 2018 to 31 July 2019 and involving 197 sites from 29 countries across five continents. Our primary aim was to determine the first-pass intubation success rates of videolaryngoscopy. Secondary aims were characterising (a) videolaryngoscopy use in the critically ill patient population and (b) the incidence of severe adverse effects compared with direct laryngoscopy.Results: Of 2916 patients, videolaryngoscopy was used in 500 patients (17.2%) and direct laryngoscopy in 2416 (82.8%). First-pass intubation success was higher with videolaryngoscopy compared with direct laryngoscopy (84% vs 79%, P1/40.02). Patients undergoing videolaryngoscopy had a higher frequency of difficult airway predictors (60% vs 40%, P&lt;0.001). In adjusted analyses, videolaryngoscopy increased the probability of first-pass intubation success, with an OR of 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.87). Videolaryngoscopy was not significantly associated with risk of major adverse events (odds ratio 1.24, 95% CI 0.95-1.62) or cardiovascular events (odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.60-1.02).Conclusions: In critically ill patients, videolaryngoscopy was associated with higher first-pass intubation success rates, despite being used in a population at higher risk of difficult airway management. Videolaryngoscopy was not associated with overall risk of major adverse events

Intubation Practices and Adverse Peri-intubation Events in Critically Ill Patients from 29 Countries

Importance: Tracheal intubation is one of the most commonly performed and high-risk interventions in critically ill patients. Limited information is available on adverse peri-intubation events. Objective: To evaluate the incidence and nature of adverse peri-intubation events and to assess current practice of intubation in critically ill patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: The International Observational Study to Understand the Impact and Best Practices of Airway Management in Critically Ill Patients (INTUBE) study was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study involving consecutive critically ill patients undergoing tracheal intubation in the intensive care units (ICUs), emergency departments, and wards, from October 1, 2018, to July 31, 2019 (August 28, 2019, was the final follow-up) in a convenience sample of 197 sites from 29 countries across 5 continents. Exposures: Tracheal intubation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the incidence of major adverse peri-intubation events defined as at least 1 of the following events occurring within 30 minutes from the start of the intubation procedure: cardiovascular instability (either: systolic pressure &lt;65 mm Hg at least once, &lt;90 mm Hg for &gt;30 minutes, new or increase need of vasopressors or fluid bolus &gt;15 mL/kg), severe hypoxemia (peripheral oxygen saturation &lt;80%) or cardiac arrest. The secondary outcomes included intensive care unit mortality. Results: Of 3659 patients screened, 2964 (median age, 63 years; interquartile range [IQR], 49-74 years; 62.6% men) from 197 sites across 5 continents were included. The main reason for intubation was respiratory failure in 52.3% of patients, followed by neurological impairment in 30.5%, and cardiovascular instability in 9.4%. Primary outcome data were available for all patients. Among the study patients, 45.2% experienced at least 1 major adverse peri-intubation event. The predominant event was cardiovascular instability, observed in 42.6% of all patients undergoing emergency intubation, followed by severe hypoxemia (9.3%) and cardiac arrest (3.1%). Overall ICU mortality was 32.8%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this observational study of intubation practices in critically ill patients from a convenience sample of 197 sites across 29 countries, major adverse peri-intubation events - in particular cardiovascular instability - were observed frequently

Intubation Practices and Adverse Peri-intubation Events in Critically Ill Patients From 29 Countries

Key PointsQuestionAmong critically ill patients undergoing tracheal intubation worldwide, how common are major adverse events during the peri-intubation period? FindingsIn this prospective observational study that included 2964 patients from 197 sites across 29 countries from October 2018 to July 2019, at least one major clinical event occurred after intubation in 45.2% of patients, including cardiovascular instability in 42.6%, severe hypoxemia in 9.3%, and cardiac arrest in 3.1%. MeaningAmong an international sample of critically ill patients undergoing tracheal intubation, major cardiopulmonary events occurred frequently.ImportanceTracheal intubation is one of the most commonly performed and high-risk interventions in critically ill patients. Limited information is available on adverse peri-intubation events. ObjectiveTo evaluate the incidence and nature of adverse peri-intubation events and to assess current practice of intubation in critically ill patients. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThe International Observational Study to Understand the Impact and Best Practices of Airway Management in Critically Ill Patients (INTUBE) study was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study involving consecutive critically ill patients undergoing tracheal intubation in the intensive care units (ICUs), emergency departments, and wards, from October 1, 2018, to July 31, 2019 (August 28, 2019, was the final follow-up) in a convenience sample of 197 sites from 29 countries across 5 continents. ExposuresTracheal intubation. Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was the incidence of major adverse peri-intubation events defined as at least 1 of the following events occurring within 30 minutes from the start of the intubation procedure: cardiovascular instability (either: systolic pressure &lt;65 mm Hg at least once, &lt;90 mm Hg for &gt;30 minutes, new or increase need of vasopressors or fluid bolus &gt;15 mL/kg), severe hypoxemia (peripheral oxygen saturation &lt;80%) or cardiac arrest. The secondary outcomes included intensive care unit mortality. ResultsOf 3659 patients screened, 2964 (median age, 63 years; interquartile range [IQR], 49-74 years; 62.6% men) from 197 sites across 5 continents were included. The main reason for intubation was respiratory failure in 52.3% of patients, followed by neurological impairment in 30.5%, and cardiovascular instability in 9.4%. Primary outcome data were available for all patients. Among the study patients, 45.2% experienced at least 1 major adverse peri-intubation event. The predominant event was cardiovascular instability, observed in 42.6% of all patients undergoing emergency intubation, followed by severe hypoxemia (9.3%) and cardiac arrest (3.1%). Overall ICU mortality was 32.8%. Conclusions and RelevanceIn this observational study of intubation practices in critically ill patients from a convenience sample of 197 sites across 29 countries, major adverse peri-intubation events-in particular cardiovascular instability-were observed frequently.This international cohort study describes the incidence and nature of cardiovascular instability, severe hypoxemia, and cardiac arrest surrounding endotracheal intubation