Predictors for outcome of failure of balloon dilatation in patients with achalasia

Background: Pneumatic balloon dilatation (PD) is a regular treatment modality for achalasia. The reported success rates of PD vary. Recurrent symptoms often require repeated PD or surgery. Objective: To identify predicting factors for symptom recurrence requiring repeated treatment. Methods: Between 1974 and 2006, 336 patients were treated with PD and included in this longitudinal cohort study. The median follow-up was 129 months (range 1-378). Recurrence of achalasia was defined as symptom recurrence in combination with increased lower oesophageal sphincter (LOS) pressure on manometry, requiring repeated treatment. Patient characteristics, results of timed barium oesophagram and manometry as well as baseline PD characteristics were evaluated as predictors of disease recurrence with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis. Results: 111 patients had symptom recurrence requiring repeated treatment. Symptoms recurred after a mean follow-up of 51 months (range 1-348). High recurrence percentages were found in patients younger than 21 years in whom the 5 and 10-year risks of recurrence were 64% and 72%, respectively. These risks were respectively 28% and 36% in patients with classic achalasia, respectively 48% and 60% in patients without complete obliteration of the balloon's waist during PD and respectively 25% and 33% in patients with a LOS pressure greater than 10 mm Hg at 3 months post-dilatation. These four predictors remained statistically significant in a multivariable Cox analysis. Conclusion: Although PD is an effective primary treatment in patients with primary achalasia, patients are at risk of recurrent disease, with this risk increasing during long-term follow-up. Young age at presentation, classic achalasia, high LOS pressure 3 months after PD and incomplete obliteration of the balloon's waist during PD are the most important predicting factors for the need for repeated treatment during follow-up. Patients who meet one or more of these characteristics may be considered earlier for alternative treatment, such as surgery

Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

© 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

Routine prenatal screening for congenital heart disease: what can be expected? A decision-analytic approach

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the potential impact of fetal ultrasound screening on the number of newborns affected by cardiac anomalies. METHODS: A decision model was developed that included the prevalence and history of congenital heart disease, characteristics of ultrasound, risk of abortion, and attitude toward pregnancy termination. Probabilities were obtained with a literature survey; sensitivity analysis showed their influence on expected outcomes. RESULTS: Presently, screening programs may prevent the birth of approximately 1300 severely affected newborns per million second-trimester pregnancies. However, over 2000 terminations of pregnancy would be required, 750 of which would have ended in intrauterine death or spontaneous abortion. Further, 9900 false-positive screening results would occur, requiring referral. Only the sensitivity of routine screening and attitude toward termination of pregnancy appeared to influence the yield substantially. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of routine screening for congenital heart disease appeared relatively small. Further data may be required to fully assess the utility of prenatal screening

Understanding older patients' self-management abilities: functional loss, self-management, and well-being

Purpose: This study aimed to increase our understanding of self-management abilities and identify better self-managers among older individuals. Methods: Our cross-sectional research was based on a pilot study of older people who had recently been admitted to a hospital. In the pilot study, all patients (>65 years of age) who were admitted to the Vlietland hospital between June and October 2010 were asked to participate, which led to the inclusion of 456 older patients at baseline. A total of 296 patients (65% response rate) were interviewed in their homes 3 months after admission. Measures included social, cognitive, and physical functioning, self-management abilities, and well-being. We used descriptive, correlations, and multiple regression analyses. In addition, we evaluated the mediation effect of self-management abilities on well-being. Results: Social, cognitive, and physical functioning significantly correlated with self-management abilities and well-being (all p ≤ 0.001). After controlling for background characteristics, multiple regression analysis indicated that social, cognitive, and physical functioning still related to self-management abilities (β = 0.17-0.25; all p ≤ 0.001). Older people with low levels of social, cognitive, and physical functioning were worse self-managers than were those with higher levels of functioning. Conclusions: Self-management abilities mediate the relationship between social, cognitive, and physical functioning and well-being. Interventions to improve self-management abilities may help older people better deal with function losses as they age further

Cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention: a systematic review with a focus on risk-adapted strategies

OBJECTIVES: Benefit and cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening are still matters of controversy. Risk-adapted strategies are proposed to improve its benefit-harm and cost–benefit relations. Our objective was to perform a systematic review on economic breast cancer models evaluating primary and secondary prevention strategies in the European health care setting, with specific focus on model results, model characteristics, and risk-adapted strategies. METHODS: Literature databases were systematically searched for economic breast cancer models evaluating the cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention strategies in the European health care context. Characteristics, methodological details and results of the identified studies are reported in evidence tables. Economic model outputs are standardized to achieve comparable cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Thirty-two economic evaluations of breast cancer screening and seven evaluations of primary breast cancer prevention were included. Five screening studies and none of the prevention studies considered risk-adapted strategies. Studies differed in methodologic features. Only about half of the screening studies modeled overdiagnosis-related harms, most often indirectly and without reporting their magnitude. All models predict gains in life expectancy and/or quality-adjusted life expectancy at acceptable costs. However, risk-adapted screening was shown to be more effective and efficient than conventional screening. CONCLUSIONS: Economic models suggest that breast cancer screening and prevention are cost effective in the European setting. All screening models predict gains in life expectancy, which has not yet been confirmed by trials. European models evaluating risk-adapted screening strategies are rare, but suggest that risk-adapted screening is more effective and efficient than conventional screening

Characteristics of revisits of children at risk for serious infections in pediatric emergency care

In this study, we aimed to identify characteristics of (unscheduled) revisits and its optimal time frame after Emergency Department (ED) discharge. Children with fever, dyspnea, or vomiting/diarrhea (1 month–16 years) who attended the ED of Erasmus MC-Sophia, Rotterdam (2010–2013), the Netherlands, were prospectively included. Three days after ED discharge, we applied standardized telephonic questionnaires on disease course and revisits. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent characteristics of revisits. Young age, parental concern, and alarming signs and symptoms (chest wall retractions, ill appearance, clinical signs of dehydration, and tachypnea) were associated with revisits (n = 527) in children at risk for serious infections discharged from the ED (n = 1765). Children revisited the ED within a median of 2 days (IQR 1.0–3.0), but this was proven to be shorter in children with vomiting/diarrhea (1.0 day (IQR 1.0–2.0)) compared to children with fever or dyspnea (2.0 (IQR 1.0–3.0)). Conclusion: Young age, parental concern, and alarming signs and symptoms (chest wall retractions, ill appearance, clinical signs of dehydration, and tachypnea) were associated with emergency health care revisits in children with fever, dyspnea, and vomiting/diarrhea. These characteristics could help to define targeted review of children during post-discharge period. We observed a disease specific and differential timing of control revisits after ED discharge.(Table presented.

Predicting mortality with pneumonia severity scores: importance of model recalibration to local settings

In patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) prediction rules based on individual predicted mortalities are frequently used to support decision-making for in-patient vs. outpatient management. We studied the accuracy and the need for recalibration of three risk prediction scores in a tertiary-care University hospital emergency-department setting in Switzerland. We pooled data from patients with CAP enrolled in two randomized controlled trials. We compared expected mortality from the original pneumonia severity index (PSI), CURB65 and CRB65 scores against observed mortality (calibration) and recalibrated the scores by fitting the intercept α and the calibration slope β from our calibration model. Each of the original models underestimated the observed 30-day mortality of 11%, in 371 patients admitted to the emergency department with CAP (8·4%, 5·5% and 5·0% for the PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 scores, respectively). In particular, we observed a relevant mortality within the low risk classes of the original models (2·6%, 5·3%, and 3·7% for PSI classes I-III, CURB65 classes 0-1, and CRB65 class 0, respectively). Recalibration of the original risk models corrected the miscalibration. After recalibration, however, only PSI class I was sensitive enough to identify patients with a low risk (i.e. <1%) for mortality suitable for outpatient management. In our tertiary-care setting with mostly referred in-patients, CAP risk scores substantially underestimated observed mortalities misclassifying patients with relevant risks of death suitable for outpatient management. Prior to the implementation of CAP risk scores in the clinical setting, the need for recalibration and the accuracy of low-risk re-classification should be studied in order to adhere with discharge guidelines and guarantee patients' safet

Human tissue valves in aortic position: determinants of reoperation and valve regurgitation

BACKGROUND: Human tissue valves for aortic valve replacement have a limited durability that is influenced by interrelated determinants. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to analyze the relation between these determinants of durability and valve regurgitation measured by serial echocardiography. METHODS AND RESULTS: In adult patients, 218 cryopreserved aortic allografts were implanted with the subcoronary (85) or the root replacement technique (133), and 81 patients had root replacement with a pulmonary autograft. Mean follow-up was 4.2 years (SD 2.7; range, 0 to 10.5). Patient age, operator experience with subcoronary implantation, and allograft diameter were independent predictors for reoperation. With repeated color Doppler echocardiography, the severity of aortic regurgitation was assessed by the jet length method and the jet diameter ratio. Multilevel hierarchical linear modeling was used to estimate initial aortic regurgitation (intercept), its change over time (slope), and the effect of 11 potential determinants of durability on aortic regurgitation. With the jet length method, the intercept was 0.94 grade and the slope was 0.11 grade per year. With the jet diameter ratio, the intercept was 0.34 and the annual increase was 0.01. Subcoronary implanted valves had more initial aortic regurgitation, but progression of aortic valve regurgitation did not differ from root replacement. At midterm follow-up, recipient age <40 years was the only independent predictor of aortic regurgitation. CONCLUSIONS: Subcoronary implantation has a learning curve, resulting in more initial aortic regurgitation and early reoperation compared with root replacement. In both techniques, progression of aortic regurgitation over time is small but accelerated in young adults