Risk Aversion over Incomes and Risk Aversion over Commodities

This note determines the precise connection between an agent's attitude towards income risks and his attitude over risks in the underlying consumption space. Our results follow a general mathematical theory connecting the curvature properties of an objective function with the ray-curvature properties of its dual.risk aversion, concavity, duality

Modelling and forecasting the UK tourism growth cycle in Algarve

Over the past three decades, Portugal has developed a strong economic dependence on tourism, which has several implications for the country's overall economic development. Tourism is an activity that is interrelated strongly with the economic system since Portugal as a whole and specific regions in particular rely on the performance of tourism for their economic activity. Moreover, because economic cycles affect tourism development, it is highly vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Most tourists who visit Portugal are from the European Union, especially Western Europe. Statistics are based on the number of overnight stays in hotel accommodation and other similar establishments. In 2005, the main source markets were the UK (30.7%), Germany (16.5%), Spain (11.5%), the Netherlands (6.8%), France (4.7%), Ireland (3.6%) and Italy (3.1%). These values show that the UK has the greatest share of visitors to Algarve. The purpose of this paper is to propose a modelling approach that best fits the tourism flow pattern in order to support forecasting. The paper contributes to our understanding of the relationship between economic cycles and tourism flows to Portugal (Algarve) and explores the potential of applying the diffusion index model proposed by Stock and Watson (1999, 2002) for tourism demand forecasting

Intelligent Financial Fraud Detection Practices: An Investigation

Financial fraud is an issue with far reaching consequences in the finance industry, government, corporate sectors, and for ordinary consumers. Increasing dependence on new technologies such as cloud and mobile computing in recent years has compounded the problem. Traditional methods of detection involve extensive use of auditing, where a trained individual manually observes reports or transactions in an attempt to discover fraudulent behaviour. This method is not only time consuming, expensive and inaccurate, but in the age of big data it is also impractical. Not surprisingly, financial institutions have turned to automated processes using statistical and computational methods. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation on financial fraud detection practices using such data mining methods, with a particular focus on computational intelligence-based techniques. Classification of the practices based on key aspects such as detection algorithm used, fraud type investigated, and success rate have been covered. Issues and challenges associated with the current practices and potential future direction of research have also been identified.Comment: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Security and Privacy in Communication Networks (SecureComm 2014

Cluster Performance reconsidered: Structure, Linkages and Paths in the German Biotechnology Industry, 1996-2003

This paper addresses the evolution of biotechnology clusters in Germany between 1996 and 2003, paying particular attention to their respective composition in terms of venture capital, basic science institutions and biotechnology firms. Drawing upon the significance of co-location of "money and ideas", the literature stressing the importance of a cluster's openness and external linkages, and the path dependency debate, the paper aims to analyse how certain cluster characteristics correspond with its overall performance. After identifying different cluster types, we investigate their internal and external interconnectivity in comparative manner and draw on changes in cluster composition. Our results indicate that the structure, i.e. to which group the cluster belongs, and the openness towards external knowledge flows deliver merely unsystematic indications with regard to a cluster's overall success. Its ability to change composition towards a more balanced ratio of science and capital over time, on the other hand, turns out as a key explanatory factor. Hence, the dynamic perspective proves effective illuminating cluster growth and performance, where our explorative findings provide a promising avenue for further evolutionary research

Sex Chromosome Turnover in Bent-Toed Geckos (\u3cem\u3eCyrtodactylus\u3c/em\u3e)

Lizards and snakes (squamates) are known for their varied sex determining systems, and gecko lizards are especially diverse, having evolved sex chromosomes independently multiple times. While sex chromosomes frequently turnover among gecko genera, intrageneric turnovers are known only from Gekko and Hemidactylus. Here, we used RADseq to identify sex-specific markers in two species of Burmese bent-toed geckos. We uncovered XX/XY sex chromosomes in Cyrtodactylus chaunghanakwaensis and ZZ/ZW sex chromosomes in Cyrtodactylus pharbaungensis. This is the third instance of intrageneric turnover of sex chromosomes in geckos. Additionally, Cyrtodactylus are closely related to another genus with intrageneric turnover, Hemidactylus. Together, these data suggest that sex chromosome turnover may be common in this clade, setting them apart as exceptionally diverse in a group already known for diverse sex determination systems

ITC EUREST-PLUS Spain: protocol of a prospective longitudinal study of smokers in Spain

Objective: The ITC EUREST-PLUS Spain Survey is a longitudinal study of a representative sample of Spanish adult (≥18 years old) smokers. This protocol describes the methods of the 2021 follow-up survey. Method: The ITC EUREST-PLUS Survey, a prospective cohort study of a representative sample of smokers in six European countries, was conducted in 2016 (baseline) and 2018 (waves 1 and 2). The 2021 ITC EUREST-PLUS Spain Survey is a continuation of the Spanish cohort with a new interview in 2021 (wave 3). Lost participants were replaced with new smokers recruited using the same multi-stage sampling design. This latest follow-up aims to examine current patterns and transitions of tobacco use and to evaluate the impact of new tobacco-related policies. Comments: The ITC EUREST-PLUS Spain Survey will provide recent information about the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking behaviour

Health care expenditure disparities in the European Union and underlying factors: a distribution dynamics approach

This paper examines health care expenditure (HCE) disparities between the European Union countries over the period 1995-2010. By means of using a continuous version of the distribution dynamics approach, the key conclusions are that the reduction in disparities is very weak and, therefore, persistence is the main characteristic of the HCE distribution. In view of these findings, a preliminary attempt is made to add some insights into potentially main factors behind the HCE distribution. The results indicate that whereas per capita income is by far the main determinant, the dependency ratio and female labour participation do not play any role in explaining the HCE distribution; as for the rest of the factors studied (life expectancy, infant mortality, R&D expenditure and public HCE expenditure share), we find that their role falls somewhat in between