On the counterfactual nature of gambling near-misses: An experimental study

Research on gambling near-misses has shown that objectively-equivalent outcomes can yield divergent emotional and motivational responses. The subjective processing of gambling outcomes is affected substantially by close but non-obtained outcomes (i.e. counterfactuals). In the current paper, we investigate how different types of near-misses influence self-perceived luck and subsequent betting behavior in a wheel-of-fortune task. We investigate the counterfactual mechanism of these effects by testing the relationship with a second task measuring regret/relief processing. Across two experiments (Experiment 1, $\textit{n}$ = 51; Experiment 2, $\textit{n}$ = 104), we demonstrate that near-wins (neutral outcomes that a reclose to a jackpot) decreased self-perceived luck, whereas near-losses (neutral outcomes that are close to a major penalty) increased luck ratings. The effects of near-misses varied by near-miss position (i.e. whether the spinner stopped just short of, or passed through, the counterfactual outcome), consistent with established distinctions between upward versus downward, and additive versus subtractive, counterfactual thinking. In Experiment 1, individuals who showed stronger counterfactual processing on the regret/relief task were more responsive to near-wins and near-losses on the wheel-of-fortune task. The effect of near-miss position was attenuated when the anticipatory phase (i.e. the spin and deceleration) was removed in Experiment 2. Further differences were observed within the objective gains and losses, between “clear” and “narrow” outcomes. Taken together, these results help substantiate the counterfactual mechanism of near-misses.This work was completed within the University of Cambridge Behavioural and Clinical Neuroscience Institute (director: TW Robbins), supported by a consortium award from the Medical Research Council (MRC Ref G1000183) and Wellcome Trust (WT Ref 093875/Z/10/Z). YW was supported by Shenzhen University Research Fund (701/00036973), National Natural Science Foundation of China (31600923, 31271088) and the Treherne Studentship in Biological Sciences from Downing College, Cambridge. The Centre for Gambling Research at UBC (LC) is supported by funding from the British Columbia Lottery Corporation and the Province of British Columbia

Position-dependent shear-induced austenite-martensite transformation in double-notched TRIP and dual-phase steel samples

While earlier studies on transformation-induced-plasticity (TRIP) steels focused on the determination of the austenite-to-martensite decomposition in uniform deformation or thermal fields, the current research focuses on the determination of the local retained austenite-to-martensite transformation behaviour in an inhomogeneous yet carefully controlled shear-loaded region of double-notched TRIP and dual-phase (DP) steel samples. A detailed powder analysis has been performed to simultaneously monitor the evolution of the phase fraction and the changes in average carbon concentration of metastable austenite together with the local strain components in the constituent phases as a function of the macroscopic stress and location with respect to the shear band. The metastable retained austenite shows a mechanically induced martensitic transformation in the localized shear zone, which is accompanied by an increase in average carbon concentration of the remaining austenite due to a preferred transformation of the austenite grains with the lowest carbon concentration. At the later deformation stages the geometry of the shear test samples results in the development of an additional tensile component. The experimental strain field within the probed sample area is in good agreement with finite element calculations. The strain development observed in the low-alloyed TRIP steel with metastable austenite is compared with that of steels with the same chemical composition containing either no austenite (a DP grade) or stable retained austenite (a TRIP grade produced at a long bainitic holding time). The transformation of metastable austenite under shear is a complex interplay between the local microstructure and the evolving strain fields

Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters

Current state-of-the-art models typically applied at continental to global scales (hereafter called macroscale) tend to use a priori parameters, resulting in suboptimal streamflow (Q) simulation. For the first time, a scheme for regionalization of model parameters at the global scale was developed. We used data from a diverse set of 1787 small-to-medium sized catchments ( 10-10,000 km(2)) and the simple conceptual HBV model to set up and test the scheme. Each catchment was calibrated against observed daily Q, after which 674 catchments with high calibration and validation scores, and thus presumably good-quality observed Q and forcing data, were selected to serve as donor catchments. The calibrated parameter sets for the donors were subsequently transferred to 0.5 degrees grid cells with similar climatic and physiographic characteristics, resulting in parameter maps for HBV with global coverage. For each grid cell, we used the 10 most similar donor catchments, rather than the single most similar donor, and averaged the resulting simulated Q, which enhanced model performance. The 1113 catchments not used as donors were used to independently evaluate the scheme. The regionalized parameters outperformed spatially uniform (i.e., averaged calibrated) parameters for 79% of the evaluation catchments. Substantial improvements were evident for all major Koppen-Geiger climate types and even for evaluation catchments>5000 km distant from the donors. The median improvement was about half of the performance increase achieved through calibration. HBV with regionalized parameters outperformed nine state-of-the-art macroscale models, suggesting these might also benefit from the new regionalization scheme. The produced HBV parameter maps including ancillary data are available via

Real bad grammar: realistic grammatical description with grammaticality

Sampson (this issue) argues for a concept of “realistic grammatical description” in which the distinction between grammatical and ungrammatical sentences is irrelevant. In this article I also argue for a concept of “realistic grammatical description” but one in which a binary distinction between grammatical and ungrammatical sentences is maintained. In distinguishing between the grammatical and ungrammatical, this kind of grammar differs from that proposed by Sampson, but it does share the important property that invented sentences have no role to play, either as positive or negative evidence

On the counterfactual nature of gambling near-misses: an experimental study

Social decision makin

Стратегії та підходи до реструктуризації підприємств сфери ЖКГ в умовах реформування власності України

Наведено результати дослідження існуючих підходів до стратегічних напрямів реструктуризації підприємств сфери ЖКГ в умовах реформування власності. Ключові слова: стратегія реструктуризації, ЖКГ України, реструктуризація підприємства, антикризове управління, стратегічний менеджмент.Приведены результаты исследования существующих подходов в стратегических направлениях реструктуризации предприятий сферы ЖКГ в условиях реформирования собственности. Ключевые слова: стратегия реструктуризации, ЖКХ Украины, реструктуризация предприятия, антикризисное управление, стратегический менеджмент.The paper presents the results of studying the approaches in strategic directions of restructuring of housing and communal enterprises under property reformation in Ukraine. Keywords: strategy of restructuring, housing and communal facilities of Ukraine, restructuring of enterprise, anti-crisis management, strategic management

Validation of a Dutch version of the Tinnitus Functional Index in a tertiary referral tinnitus clinic

Introduction: Tinnitus is a condition with a subjective nature that requires self-report questionnaires for its assessment. Aspects such as quality of life, sleep or intrusiveness have been addressed by multiple tinnitus questionnaires, but the high responsiveness to treatment effects of the Tinnitus Functional Index (TFI) makes this questionnaire part of the standard practice in tinnitus screening. To date, the TFI has been translated to more than 20 languages and used in more than 22 countries. In this study, the TFI was translated to Dutch and validated through a clinical population in the Netherlands. Methods: After a back-translation procedure, the Dutch TFI was filled-out by 377 patients in the tinnitus outpatient clinic at the Ear, Nose and Throat (ENT) department of the University Medical Center Groningen, in the Netherlands. Reliability and construct validity of the questionnaire were assessed by correlations with one other tinnitus questionnaire (Tinnitus Handicap Inventory, THI) and with three psychological functioning questionnaires (Rand-36, Cantril's ladder and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS)). The eight-factor structure of the Dutch TFI was tested by means of exploratory factor analysis using three different models (ICM-CFA, ESEM and ESEM-CFA). Results: The Dutch TFI showed a high internal consistency (α = 0.95), and construct validity was proven by moderate-to high-convergent correlations with the THI (r = 0.47–0.79) and by moderate convergent (r = 0.55–0.67) and good-to moderate-divergent (r = 0.12–0.47) correlations with the psychological functioning questionnaires. The eight-factor structure of the TFI was confirmed for the Dutch version by the three models. Conclusion: The Dutch version of the TFI is a reliable instrument for screening tinnitus impact in a clinical population, and its psychometric properties are comparable to the original TFI and other validated tinnitus questionnaires

Thermoluminescent detectors applied in individual monitoring of radiation workers in Europe—a review based on the EURADOS questionnaire

Among the activities of EURADOS Working Group 2 formed by experts from several European countries is the harmonisation of individual monitoring as part of radiation protection of occupationally exposed persons. Here, we provide information about thermoluminescent detectors (TLDs) applied by the European dosimetric services and the dosimetric characteristics of dosemeters in which these detectors are applied. Among 91 services from 29 countries which responded to the EURADOS questionnaire, 61 apply dosemeters with TLDs for the determination of personal dose equivalent Hp(10) for photons and beta radiation, and 16 services use TLDs for neutron albedo dosemeters. Those most frequently used are standard lithium fluoride TLDs (mainly TLD-100, TLD-700, Polish MTS-N and MTS-7, Russian DTG-4), high-sensitive lithium fluoride (GR-200, MCP-N) and lithium borate TLDs. Some services use calcium sulphate and calcium fluoride detectors. For neutron dosimetry, most services apply pairs of LiF:Mg,Ti TLDs with 6Li and 7Li. The characteristics (energy response) of individual dosemeters are mainly related to the energy response of the detectors and filters applied. The construction of filters in dosemeters applied for measurements of Hp(10) and their energy response are also reviewe