Distribution Dynamics in the US. A spatial perspective.

It is quite common in cross-sectional convergence analyses that data exhibit strong spatial dependence. While the literature adopting the regression approach is now fully aware that neglecting this feature may lead to inaccurate results and has therefore suggested a number of statistical tools for addressing the issue, research is only at a very initial stage within the distribution dynamics approach. In particular, in the continuous state-space framework, a few authors opted for spatial pre-filtering the data in order to guarantee the statistical properties of the estimates. In this paper, we follow an alternative route that starts from the idea that spatial dependence is not just noise but can be a substantive element of the data generating process. In particular, we develop a tool that, building on a mean-bias adjustment procedure established in the literature, explicitly allows for spatial dependence in distribution dynamics analysis thus eliminating the need for pre-filtering. Using this tool, we then reconsider the evidence on convergence across US states

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk

On the Economics of Forest Carbon: Renewable and Carbon Neutral But Not Emission Free

First-best optimal forest sector carbon policy is examined. Using a comprehensive forest sector model with a detailed carbon cycle section we show that the renewability and carbon neutrality arguments do not warrant emission free treatment of forest bioenergy. However, under the biomass stock change carbon accounting convention followed by UNFCCC and IPCC, the forest owners pay for the roundwood emissions and, to avoid double counting, the use of roundwood is treated as emission free. The bioenergy from harvest residues cannot be treated as emission free either. Their emission factors are determined through the decay time-scales specific to residue fractions and discount rate used in welfare assessment. In addition, we show that an optimal policy subsidizes the production of wood products sequestering carbon. The relative magnitude of the subsidy is based on the fraction of the carbon stored, the lifetime of the products and the discount rate. Correspondingly, the carbon removals by biomass growth are subsidized and the harvest residue generation taxed. Further, we show that the supply side policies are independent of final use of harvested timber. Numerical solution of the model shows that, although the use of wood is not emission free, it is optimal to increase the use of wood, possibly also in the energy sector. Before the wood use can be increased, the forest biomass has to be increased. This initial carbon sink speeds up the convergence to the lower steady-state atmospheric carbon stock

Search for the Lepton-Flavor-Violating Decays B-s(0) -> e(+/-)mu(-/+) and B-0 -> e(+/-)mu(-/+)

A search for the lepton-flavor-violating decays B0s\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13 and B0\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13 is performed with a data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0\u2009\u2009fb 121 of pp collisions at s 1a=7\u2009\u2009TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment. The observed number of B0s\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13 and B0\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13 candidates is consistent with background expectations. Upper limits on the branching fractions of both decays are determined to be \u212c(B0s\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13)<1.1(1.4) 710 128 and \u212c(B0\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13)<2.8(3.7) 710 129 at 90% (95%) confidence level (C.L.). These limits are a factor of 20 lower than those set by previous experiments. Lower bounds on the Pati-Salam leptoquark masses are also calculated, MLQ(B0s\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13)>101\u2009\u2009TeV/c2 and MLQ(B0\u2192e\ub1\u3bc 13)>126\u2009\u2009TeV/c2 at 95% C.L., and are a factor of 2 higher than the previous bounds