A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea

Highlights • A new description of sediment phosphorus dynamics was implemented in a 3D-model. • Oxygen consumption affects oxygen penetration in coastal sediments. • Low oxygen concentrations determine the oxygen penetration in deeper water sediments. • More than 80% of the phosphorus loads (1980–2008) are retained in the Baltic Sea. • Phosphorus is released from anoxic sediments and retained in oxic sediments. Abstract The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980–2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59 × 103 t P year− 1 and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60–150 m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43 × 103 t P year− 1. For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19 × 103 t P year− 1. In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7 × 103 t P year− 1. The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period

Influence of natural oxygenation of Baltic proper deep water on benthic recycling and removal of phosphorus, nitrogen, silicon and carbon

At the end of 2014, a Major Baltic Inflow (MBI) brought oxygenated, salty water into the Baltic proper and reached the long-term anoxic Eastern Gotland Basin (EGB) by March 2015. In July 2015, we measured benthic fluxes of phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N) and silicon (Si) nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in situ using an autonomous benthic lander at deep sites (170–210 m) in the EGB, where the bottom water oxygen concentration was 30–45 μM. The same in situ methodology was used to measure benthic fluxes at the same sites in 2008–2010, but then under anoxic conditions. The high efflux of phosphate under anoxic conditions became lower upon oxygenation, and turned into an influx in about 50% of the flux measurements. The C:P and N:P ratios of the benthic solute flux changed from clearly below the Redfield ratio (on average about 70 and 3–4, respectively) under anoxia to approaching or being well above the Redfield ratio upon oxygenation. These observations demonstrate retention of P in newly oxygenated sediments. We found no significant effect of oxygenation on the benthic ammonium, silicate and DIC flux. We also measured benthic denitrification, anammox, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) rates at the same sites using isotope-pairing techniques. The bottom water of the long-term anoxic EGB contained less than 0.5 μM nitrate in 2008–2010, but the oxygenation event created bottom water nitrate concentrations of about 10 μM in July 2015 and the benthic flux of nitrate was consistently directed into the sediment. Nitrate reduction to both dinitrogen gas (denitrification) and ammonium (DNRA) was initiated in the newly oxygenated sediments, while anammox activity was negligible. We estimated the influence of this oxygenation event on the magnitudes of the integrated benthic P flux (the internal P load) and the fixed N removal through benthic and pelagic denitrification by comparing with a hypothetical scenario without the MBI. Our calculations suggest that the oxygenation triggered by the MBI in July 2015, extrapolated to the basin-wide scale of the Baltic proper, decreased the internal P load by 23% and increased the total (benthic plus pelagic) denitrification by 18%

Report on the nature and types of driver interactions including their potential future

The Baltic Sea is a dynamic environment responding to various drivers operating at different temporal and spatial scales. In response to climate change, the Baltic Sea is warming and the frequency of extreme climatic events is increasing (Lima & Wethey 2012, BACC 2008, Poloczanska et al. 2007). Coastal development, human population growth and globalization intensify stressors associated with human activities, such as nutrient loading, fisheries and proliferation of invasive and bloom-forming species. Such abrupt changes have unforeseen consequences for the biodiversity and the function of food webs and may result in loss of ecological key species, alteration and fragmentation of habitats. To mitigate undesired effects on the Baltic ecosystem, an efficient marine management will depend on the understanding of historical and current drivers, i.e. physical and chemical environmental conditions and human activities that precipitate pressures on the natural environment. This task examined a set of key interactions of selected natural and anthropogenic drivers in space and time, identified in Task 3.1 as well as WP1 and WP2 (e.g. physico-chemical features vs climate forcing; eutrophication vs oxygen deficiency vs bio-invasions; fisheries vs climate change impacts) by using overlay-mapping and sensitivity analyses. The benthic ecosystem models developed under Task 2.1 were used to investigate interactions between sea temperature and eutrophication for various depth strata in coastal (P9) and offshore areas (P1) of the Baltic Sea. This also included investigation on how the frequency and magnitude of deep-water inflow events determines volume and variance of salinity and temperature under the halocline, deep-water oxygen levels and sediment fluxes of nutrients, using observations and model results from 1850 to present (P1, P2, P6, P9, P12). The resulting synthesis on the nature and magnitude of different driver interactions will feed into all other tasks of this WP3 and WP2/WP4. Moreover, the results presented in this report improve the process-based and mechanistic understanding of environmental change in the Baltic Sea ecosystem, thereby fostering the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Ocean State Report

The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) Ocean State Report (OSR) provides an annual report of the state of the global ocean and European regional seas for policy and decision-makers with the additional aim of increasing general public awareness about the status of, and changes in, the marine environment. The CMEMS OSR draws on expert analysis and provides a 3-D view (through reanalysis systems), a view from above (through remote-sensing data) and a direct view of the interior (through in situ measurements) of the global ocean and the European regional seas. The report is based on the unique CMEMS monitoring capabilities of the blue (hydrography, currents), white (sea ice) and green (e.g. Chlorophyll) marine environment. This first issue of the CMEMS OSR provides guidance on Essential Variables, large-scale changes and specific events related to the physical ocean state over the period 1993–2015. Principal findings of this first CMEMS OSR show a significant increase in global and regional sea levels, thermosteric expansion, ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent and conversely a decrease in Arctic sea ice extent during the 1993–2015 period. During the year 2015 exceptionally strong large-scale changes were monitored such as, for example, a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation, a high frequency of extreme storms and sea level events in specific regions in addition to areas of high sea level and harmful algae blooms. At the same time, some areas in the Arctic Ocean experienced exceptionally low sea ice extent and temperatures below average were observed in the North Atlantic Ocean

Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper

Dense blooms of filamentous diazotrophic cyanobacteria are formed every summer in the Baltic Sea. These autotrophic organisms may bypass nitrogen limitation by performing nitrogen fixation, which also governs surrounding organisms by increasing bioavailable nitrogen. The magnitude of the nitrogen fixation is important to estimate from a management perspective since this might counteract eutrophication reduction measures. Here, a cyanobacteria life cycle model has been implemented for the first time in a high-resolution 3D coupled physical and biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea, spanning the years 1850-2008. The explicit consideration of life cycle dynamics and transitions significantly improves the representation of the cyanobacterial phenological patterns compared to earlier 3D modeling efforts. Now, the rapid increase and decrease in cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea are well captured, and the seasonal timing is in concert with observations. The current improvement also had a large effect on the nitrogen fixation load and is now in agreement with estimates based on in situ measurements. By performing four phosphorus sensitivity runs, we demonstrate the importance of both organic and inorganic phosphorus availability for historical cyanobacterial biomass estimates. The model combination can be used to continuously predict internal nitrogen loads via nitrogen fixation in Baltic Sea ecosystem management, which is of extra importance in a future ocean with changed conditions for the filamentous cyanobacteria