Sales prediction in the ice category applying fuzzy sets theory

With growing pressure on performance and data regarding customer behaviour and supply chain process widely available, stock keeping units aim to optimise the level of inventories. It is natural that good estimates of future sales can substantially increase the efficiency of the overall company. We can distinguish two basic perspectives: one assumes sales to be an independent process; the other explores its dependency on exogenous variables. In this paper we focus on the forecasting of sales in the Ice category when dependency on quarterly average temperatures in the form of exponential function is assumed. We concentrate especially on LFL-Forecaster, a method combining fuzzy transform and fuzzy natural logic of fuzzy sets theory, as a tool for average temperature forecasting. The results are compared with simple linear extrapolation and truly observed temperatures. The utilisation of LFL-Forecaster is found to be superior to simplifying linear regression

Disposition effect in currency trading: an evidence from experimental student games

The disposition effect has been described in the stock-investing context as a behavioral tendency of investors to hold on to losing stocks for too long and sell winning stocks too soon. In this paper it is examined whether the disposition effect can be confirmed also in the experimental student game of currency trading data set. The presence of the disposition effect leads to the conclusion that students, despite using demo money, were trading with real behavioral bias and various interesting findings concerning gender differences and size of the trade are discussed. The experimental data set was collected by Jochec during years 2009 to 2015, students were trading under standardized rules. In this paper the holding periods of profitable and unprofitable trades were tested and compared. Based on these calculations the general presence of the disposition effect in the data set was confirmed. Moreover it was confirmed that males and females have different tendency to succumb to this bias.Web of Science6426124

A revised version of the Cathcart & El-Jahel model and its application to CDS market

The paper considers the pricing of credit default swaps (CDSs) using a revised version of the credit riskmodel proposed in Cathcart and El-Jahel (2003). Default occurs either the first time a signaling process breaches a threshold barrier or unexpectedly at the first jump of a Cox process. The intensity of default depends on the risk-free interest rate, which follows a Vasicek process, instead of a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process as in the original model. This offers two advantages. On the one hand, it allows us to account for negative interest rates which are recently observed, on the other hand, it simplifies the formula for pricing CDSs. The goodness of fit of the model is tested using a dataset of CDS credit spreads related to European companies. The results obtained show a rather satisfactory agreement between theoretical predictions and market data, which is identical to the one obtained with the original model. In addition, the values of the calibrated parameters result to be stable over time and the semi-closed form solution ensures a very fast implementation.Web of Scienc

Addition of platelet concentrate to Dermo-Epidermal Skin Graft in deep burn trauma reduces scarring and need for revision surgeries

Backround. Deep skin burn injuries, especially those on the face, hands, feet, genitalia and perineum represent significant therapeutic challenges. Autologous dermo-epidermal skin grafts (DESG) have become standard of care for treating deep burns. Additionally, human autologous thrombin activated autologous platelet concentrate (APC) has gained acceptance in the setting of wounds. While each of these interventions has been independently shown to accelerate healing, the combination of the two has never been evaluated. We hypothesized that the addition of platelets (source of growth factors and inhibitors necessary for tissue repair) to the DESG (source of progenitor cells and of tissue proteases necessary for spatial and temporal control of growth regulators released from platelets) would create the optimal environment for the reciprocal interaction of cells within the healing tissues. Methods: We used clinical examination (digital photography), standardised scales for evaluating pain and scarring, in combination with blood perfusion (laser Doppler imaging), as well as molecular and laboratory analyses. Results: We show for the first time that the combination of APC and DESG leads to earlier relief of pain, and decreased use of analgesics, antipruritics and orthotic devices. Most importantly, this treatment is associated with earlier discharges from hospital and significant cost savings. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that DESG engraftment is facilitated by the local addition of platelets and by systemic thrombocytosis. This local interaction leads to the physiological revascularization at 1-3 months. We observed significant elevation of circulating platelets in early stages of engraftment (1-7 days), which normalized over the subsequent 7 and 90 days.Web of Science158225824

Solid anorganic particles and chronic rhinosinusitis: A histopathology study

Although extensive research has shown the pathological effect of fine and ultrafine airborne particles, clear evidence of association of environmental exposure to them and inflammatory changes in human nasal mucosa is missing. Meanwhile, pathogenesis of chronic rhinosinusitis, despite being a disease with high prevalence in the population, is still unclear. The increasing evidence of the pro-inflammatory properties of these particles raises the question of their possible role in chronic rhinosinusitis. The presented study focused on detection of microsized anorganic particles and clusters of nanosized anorganic particles in the nasal mucosa of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis by Raman microspectroscopy and comparison of their composition to histologic findings. The results were compared to the findings in mucosa obtained from cadavers with no history of chronic rhinosinusitis. Solid particles were found in 90% of tissue samples in the group with chronic rhinosinusitis, showing histologic signs of inflammation in 95%, while in the control group, the particles were found in 20% of samples, with normal histologic findings in all of them. The main detected compounds were graphite, TiO2, amorphous carbon, calcite, ankerite and iron compounds. The results are in accordance with the premise that exogenous airborne particles interact with the nasal mucosa and possibly deposit in it in cases where the epithelial barrier is compromised in chronic rhinosinusitis.Web of Science1912art. no. 726

Identification of the phase composition of solid microparticles in the nasal mucosa of patients with chronic hypertrophic rhinitis using Raman microspectroscopy

Solid particles, predominantly in micron and submicron sizes, have repeatedly been observed as a threat to a human health unique compared to the other textures of the same materials. In this work, the hypothesis the solid metal-based particles play a role in the pathogenesis of chronic hypertrophic rhinitis was investigated in patients who had not responded positively to medication. In the group of 40 randomly selected patients indicated for surgical mucotomy, the presence of solid micro- and submicron particles present in their nasal mucosa was assessed. For comparison, a set of 13 reference samples from patients without diagnosed chronic hypertrophic rhinitis was evaluated. The analysis was performed using Raman microspectroscopy. The advantage of this method is the direct identification of compounds. The main detected compounds in the mucosa samples of patients with chronic hypertrophic rhinitis were TiO2, carbon-based compounds, CaCO3, Ca(Fe, Mg, Mn)(CO3)2 MgCO3, Fe2O3, BaSO4, FeCO3 and compounds of Al and Si, all of which may pose a health risk to a living organism. In the reference samples, only TiO2 and amorphous carbon were found. In the control group mucosa, a significantly lower presence of most of the assessed compounds was found despite the longer time they had to accumulate them due to their higher mean age. Identification and characterisation of such chemicals compounds in a living organism could contribute to the overall picture of the health of the individual and lead to a better understanding of the possible causes not only in the chronic hypertrophic rhinitis, but also in other mucosal and idiopathic diseases

Financial Analysis of the Company Qanto CZ, s. r. o.

Bakalářská práce se zabývá finanční analýzou společnosti Qanto CZ, s. r. o. V teoretické části jsou popsány zdroje informací pro finanční analýzu a techniky finanční analýzy. V praktické části je provedena finanční analýza společnosti za období let 2005 až 2009. Praktická část je zaměřena na horizontální a vertikální analýzu účetních výkazů, analýzu poměrových ukazatelů a benchmarkingový systém. Na základě provedené analýzy jsou zhodnoceny výsledky a navrženy opatření.This bachelor thesis deals with financial analysis of the company Qanto CZ, s. r. o. Theoretical section describes the sources of information for financial analysis and financial analysis techniques. The practical part is made of financial analysis for the period 2005 to 2009. It focuses on the horizontal and vertical analysis of financial statements, analyze financial ratios and benchmarking system. Based on the analysis results are reviewed and proposed measures.Ústav ekonomiky a managementuStudentka obhajovala svoji bakalářskou práci na téma Finanční analýza podniku Quanto CZ, s.r.o. Studentka nejprve charakterizovala zkoumaný podnik a následně se zabývala horizontální a vertikální analýzou podniku. Na základě výsledků dalších finančních analýz studentka prezentovala své závěry práce.Dokončená práce s úspěšnou obhajobo

Analýza bodu zvratu

Prezenční výpůjčkaVŠB - Technická univerzita Ostrava. Ekonomická fakulta. Katedra (152) podnikohospodářsk

Level of fitness of the pupils of the sixth and seventh grade elementary schools in Hodonín and Hovorany

Level of fitness of the pupils of the sixth and seventh grade elementary schools in Hodonín and Hovorany Goal of the work: Comparison level of the fitness of pupils in the sport classes and universa! classes elementary schools. Acquired results compare with themselves and decide ifthe sport classes are attended by pupils with better preconditions for sport. Method: In this thesis are used metods of empirical quantitative reseaech. Testing was proceeded in the athletic stadium in Hodonín and in the school sportsground in Hovorany on 13 June 2007. The selected grups were made by pupils of the sixth and seventh grades from both elemetary schools. Results: There are compared the levels of fitness of the pupils from sixth and seventh grades in the sports classes and in the normal classes. Results demostrated that the level of fitness and at the ·same titne the·preconditions for sport of the pupils from the sport classes in Hodonín are generally higher. Key words: fimess, testing, sport school

Dispoziční efekt v kontextu experimentálního obchodování na vysoce likvidních finančních trzích

The doctoral thesis focuses on behavioral finance, specifically on the disposition effect in trading and its presence in an experimental data set. The disposition effect was firstly described in the stock investing context as a behavioral tendency of investors to hold on losing stocks for too long and sell winning stocks too early. Simply put, an investor in the case of a loss trade hopes that the situation reverses in the near future. Contrary in case of profitable trades, the investor is afraid of a potential loss that might come if he holds the trade longer. It was mentioned for the first time in work called Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, published by Kahneman et al. (1979). The disposition effect is a significant phenomenon, which might lead in the worst case to a global financial market disorder. The thesis aims to examine whether the disposition effect can be identified in selected experimental trading data and, if so, what are the affecting factors and the differences within various groups of traders. The use of experimental data and the procedure if their completion are significant differences of this thesis as compared to previous works, which, to author’s best knowledge, were based mostly on data collected from real investors, for which specific characteristics and standardized behavioral biases such as self-selection bias (see Adams et al. (2012)) can be assumed. Moreover, the effect of the trader’s current wealth or social status is eliminated. Additional advantages and disadvantages of the experimental setting of the research are presented in Chapter 3.5 of this doctoral thesis. Overall, the disposition effect has been confirmed within this data set and discussed from several points of view. The key findings to be that traders, no matter if they face real losses or not, succumb to the disposition effect. Moreover, the disposition effect is closely related and affected by the risk attitude, gender, and culture. The doctoral thesis has the standard structure. The Introduction is followed by Chapter 2, proposing a theoretical background of the research and review of relevant literature. Chapter 3 focuses on mathematical and statistical methods used to achieve the aim, namely statistical methods, GUHA method, and logistic regression. Moreover, the TimeLtoP ratio and the process of experimental data collection are described. A crucial part of the thesis, Chapter 4, presents the results of the research. The thesis is, as usual, finished by a Conclusion.Doktorská dizertační práce je zaměřena na behaviorální finance, konkrétně na takzvaný dispoziční efekt zkoumaný v rámci experimentálních dat. Tendence podlehnout dispozičnímu efektu je testována z různých úhlů pohledu a jsou řešeny rozdíly mezi různými skupinami obchodníků. Dispoziční efekt byl poprvé popsán v kontextu obchodování na finančních trzích jako behaviorální tendence držet ztrátové obchody příliš dlouho a prodávat ziskové obchody příliš brzy. Jednoduše řečeno, investor v případě ztráty doufá v nápravu během delšího časového horizontu, a naopak u ziskových obchodů má strach ze ztráty, která by mohla přijít, pokud by investici držel. Poprvé byl tento efekt zmíněn v rámci takzvané teorie vyhlídek (prospect theory) od Kahneman and Tversky (1979). Dispoziční efekt je významným fenoménem, který v krajním případě může vést až k disbalanci mezinárodních finančních trhů. Cílem této doktorské disertační práce je zjistit, zda je možné tento efekt identifikovat v rámci experimentálních dat a pokud ano, jakými faktory je ovlivněn a jaké jsou případné rozdíly mezi různými skupinami obchodníků. Užití experimentálních dat a způsob jejich získávání jsou významným rozdílem oproti předchozím pracem zaměřeným na dispoziční efekt. Data skutečných investorů a profesionálních obchodníků s sebou nesou specifické charakteristiky, jako je například takzvaná self-selection bias, rozebíraná například v práci Adams et al. (2012). Zároveň je elimminován vliv bohatství a sociálního statutu obchodníka, částka pro obchodování má pro všechny totožnou hodnotu. Další výhody a nevýhody experimentálního pojetí jsou popsány v Kapitole 3.5. Co se týče výsledků, dispoziční efekt byl potvrzen v rámci dat a rozebrán z různých úhlů pohledu. Hlavním závěrem jest, že obchodníci, bez ohledu na to, zda jim hrozí riziko reálné ztráty, podléhají dispozičnímu efektu, který je ovlivněn jejich vztahem k riziku, pohlavím, a také kulturními rozdíly. Doktorská dizertační práce má standardní strukturu, kdy po Úvodu následuje Kapitola 2, shrnující teoretický základ výzkumu a rešerši literatury. Kapitola 3. je zaměřena na matematické a statistické metody užité pro dosažení cíle práce, zejména tedy statistické metody, GUHA a logistickou regresi. Dále je zde vysvětlen ukazatel TimeLtoP a způsob sběru dat. Kapitola 4 se již zabývá samotnými výsledky výzkumu. Práce je, jak je zvykem, ukončena Závěrem.154 - Katedra financívyhově