Evolution of trade flows for sheep milk cheese: an empirical model for Greece

This research examines Feta cheese trade flows, having as raw material sheep milk. The findings of the implementation of the gravity model demonstrate the significance of trade flows for Greek Feta worldwide. It will be a very useful instrument for examining the trading potential of Feta cheese, on the condition that there will be a positive outcome on the judicial and political level for the product in the WTO negotiations. The findings of the gravity model will be very helpful for an analysis which follows, in order to show off the strengths and weaknesses of the sector, as well as the opportunities and threats the market creates. Finally, there is a list of proposals suggestions which focus on increasing the competitiveness of the sector and on armouring it with all the essential quality and safety reassurances. This is done in order to avoid, in the future, attempts from competitors to jeopardize once more all this effort that has been done up till now. These proposals form an action plan which provides viable solutions to the quality and safety issue, as well as an aggressive marketing plan for gaining market shares in both EU and non-EU countries, utilizing the competitive advantage the product gains, as PDO.Trade flows, quality, competitiveness, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Greek Olive Oil: How Can Its International Market Potential Be Realized?

Trade issues affecting virgin olive oil originating in Greece are examined. A gravity model is estimated to determine the factors affecting trade in olive oil. The results provided by the gravity model yield information that is central to determining the strengths and weaknesses of the sector, as well as the opportunities and threats that exist. Finally, some proposals and suggestions are developed for increasing the international competitiveness of the Greek olive oil industry and endowing it with essential quality and safety assurances.competitiveness, gravity model, olive oil, quality, trade flows, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,

Queen Elizabeth’s Leadership Abroad: The Netherlands in the 1570s

In 1576, after Edmund Grindal, archbishop of Canterbury, presumed to lecture Queen Elizabeth on the importance of preaching and on her duty to listen to such lectures, his influence diminished precipitously, and leadership of the established English church fell to Bishop Aylmer. Grindal’s friends on the queen’s Privy Council, “forward” Calvinists (or ultra-Protestants), were powerless to save him from the consequences of his indiscretion, which damaged the ultras’ other initiatives’ chances of success. This paper concerns one of those initiatives. From the late 1560s, they urged their queen “actively” to intervene in the Dutch wars. They collaborated with Calvinists on the Continent who befriended Prince William of Orange and who hoped to help him hold together a coalition of religiously reformed and Roman Catholic insurgents in the seventeen provinces of the Low Countries. The English ultra-Protestants would have their government send money, munitions, and men in arms to the Netherlands, to tip the balance against viceroys sent by King Philip II of Spain. Grindal’s setback undermined the English Calvinists’ efforts to form an Anglo-Dutch alliance which, they assumed, would boost the prospects for an international Protestant league. Yet Elizabeth did assist the Dutch as they wrestled with decisions forced on them by developments in the Netherlands during the 1570s, and she did so more consistently and more cleverly than many historians of Tudor diplomacy have thought. Two competing assessments determine the way questions are formulated in the study of the queen’s and regime’s Dutch diplomacy. The general consensus is that she was indecisive and inconsistent. Paul Hammer characterizes Elizabeth’s responses to the crises in the Low Countries as a “zigzag of different” (“even contradictory”) maneuvers. Wallace McCaffrey and R. B. Wernham agree that England’s “hesitations and gyrations” do not pass as coherent, creditable policy. Charles Wilson scolds Elizabeth for being timid and tepid--incapable of enthusiasm for “a great cause.” But David J.B. Trim’s striking counterthrust depicts the queen’s overtures to Netherlanders as part of her courageous – and “confessionally driven” – foreign policy; Trim replaces “hesitation” and “zigzag” with a coherent “Protestant programme of action prioritized by the Elizabethan government” with the aim of improving prospects for “Calvinist internationalism.” What follows is an alternative to all these characterizations, one that, as noted, finds evidence for greater consistency and coherence in Elizabeth’s leadership and less confessional “drive.” That she would have been uneasy around religious extremists ought not to astonish us; her father’s, step-brother’s, and step-sister’s reigns as well as the start of her own were disturbed by zealous subjects, who were bent on shoring up or dismantling the realm’s religious settlements

Non-stationary covariance function modelling in 2D least-squares collocation

Standard least-squares collocation (LSC) assumes 2D stationarity and 3D isotropy, and relies on a covariance function to account for spatial dependence in the ob-served data. However, the assumption that the spatial dependence is constant through-out the region of interest may sometimes be violated. Assuming a stationary covariance structure can result in over-smoothing of, e.g., the gravity field in mountains and under-smoothing in great plains. We introduce the kernel convolution method from spatial statistics for non-stationary covariance structures, and demonstrate its advantage fordealing with non-stationarity in geodetic data. We then compared stationary and non-stationary covariance functions in 2D LSC to the empirical example of gravity anomaly interpolation near the Darling Fault, Western Australia, where the field is anisotropic and non-stationary. The results with non-stationary covariance functions are better than standard LSC in terms of formal errors and cross-validation against data not used in the interpolation, demonstrating that the use of non-stationary covariance functions can improve upon standard (stationary) LSC

Impact of renal impairment on atrial fibrillation: ESC-EHRA EORP-AF Long-Term General Registry

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and renal impairment share a bidirectional relationship with important pathophysiological interactions. We evaluated the impact of renal impairment in a contemporary cohort of patients with AF. Methods: We utilised the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF Long-Term General Registry. Outcomes were analysed according to renal function by CKD-EPI equation. The primary endpoint was a composite of thromboembolism, major bleeding, acute coronary syndrome and all-cause death. Secondary endpoints were each of these separately including ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic event, intracranial haemorrhage, cardiovascular death and hospital admission. Results: A total of 9306 patients were included. The distribution of patients with no, mild, moderate and severe renal impairment at baseline were 16.9%, 49.3%, 30% and 3.8%, respectively. AF patients with impaired renal function were older, more likely to be females, had worse cardiac imaging parameters and multiple comorbidities. Among patients with an indication for anticoagulation, prescription of these agents was reduced in those with severe renal impairment, p <.001. Over 24 months, impaired renal function was associated with significantly greater incidence of the primary composite outcome and all secondary outcomes. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated an inverse relationship between eGFR and the primary outcome (HR 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01–1.14] per 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 decrease), that was most notable in patients with eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2 (HR 2.21 [95% CI, 1.23–3.99] compared to eGFR ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2). Conclusion: A significant proportion of patients with AF suffer from concomitant renal impairment which impacts their overall management. Furthermore, renal impairment is an independent predictor of major adverse events including thromboembolism, major bleeding, acute coronary syndrome and all-cause death in patients with AF

Clinical complexity and impact of the ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway in patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the ESC-EHRA EURObservational Research Programme in AF General Long-Term Registry

Background: Clinical complexity is increasingly prevalent among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The ‘Atrial fibrillation Better Care’ (ABC) pathway approach has been proposed to streamline a more holistic and integrated approach to AF care; however, there are limited data on its usefulness among clinically complex patients. We aim to determine the impact of ABC pathway in a contemporary cohort of clinically complex AF patients. Methods: From the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry, we analysed clinically complex AF patients, defined as the presence of frailty, multimorbidity and/or polypharmacy. A K-medoids cluster analysis was performed to identify different groups of clinical complexity. The impact of an ABC-adherent approach on major outcomes was analysed through Cox-regression analyses and delay of event (DoE) analyses. Results: Among 9966 AF patients included, 8289 (83.1%) were clinically complex. Adherence to the ABC pathway in the clinically complex group reduced the risk of all-cause death (adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.72, 95%CI 0.58–0.91), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; aHR: 0.68, 95%CI 0.52–0.87) and composite outcome (aHR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.58–0.85). Adherence to the ABC pathway was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of death (aHR: 0.74, 95%CI 0.56–0.98) and composite outcome (aHR: 0.76, 95%CI 0.60–0.96) also in the high-complexity cluster; similar trends were observed for MACEs. In DoE analyses, an ABC-adherent approach resulted in significant gains in event-free survival for all the outcomes investigated in clinically complex patients. Based on absolute risk reduction at 1 year of follow-up, the number needed to treat for ABC pathway adherence was 24 for all-cause death, 31 for MACEs and 20 for the composite outcome. Conclusions: An ABC-adherent approach reduces the risk of major outcomes in clinically complex AF patients. Ensuring adherence to the ABC pathway is essential to improve clinical outcomes among clinically complex AF patients

Impact of clinical phenotypes on management and outcomes in European atrial fibrillation patients: a report from the ESC-EHRA EURObservational Research Programme in AF (EORP-AF) General Long-Term Registry

Background: Epidemiological studies in atrial fibrillation (AF) illustrate that clinical complexity increase the risk of major adverse outcomes. We aimed to describe European AF patients\u2019 clinical phenotypes and analyse the differential clinical course. Methods: We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward\u2019s Method and Squared Euclidean Distance using 22 clinical binary variables, identifying the optimal number of clusters. We investigated differences in clinical management, use of healthcare resources and outcomes in a cohort of European AF patients from a Europe-wide observational registry. Results: A total of 9363 were available for this analysis. We identified three clusters: Cluster 1 (n = 3634; 38.8%) characterized by older patients and prevalent non-cardiac comorbidities; Cluster 2 (n = 2774; 29.6%) characterized by younger patients with low prevalence of comorbidities; Cluster 3 (n = 2955;31.6%) characterized by patients\u2019 prevalent cardiovascular risk factors/comorbidities. Over a mean follow-up of 22.5 months, Cluster 3 had the highest rate of cardiovascular events, all-cause death, and the composite outcome (combining the previous two) compared to Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 (all P <.001). An adjusted Cox regression showed that compared to Cluster 2, Cluster 3 (hazard ratio (HR) 2.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27\u20133.62; HR 3.42, 95%CI 2.72\u20134.31; HR 2.79, 95%CI 2.32\u20133.35), and Cluster 1 (HR 1.88, 95%CI 1.48\u20132.38; HR 2.50, 95%CI 1.98\u20133.15; HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.74\u20132.51) reported a higher risk for the three outcomes respectively. Conclusions: In European AF patients, three main clusters were identified, differentiated by differential presence of comorbidities. Both non-cardiac and cardiac comorbidities clusters were found to be associated with an increased risk of major adverse outcomes

Elements About Exploratory, Knowledge-Based, Hybrid, and Explainable Knowledge Discovery

International audienceKnowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) and especially pattern mining can be interpreted along several dimensions, namely data, knowledge, problem-solving and interactivity. These dimensions are not disconnected and have a direct impact on the quality, applicability, and efficiency of KDD. Accordingly, we discuss some objectives of KDD based on these dimensions, namely exploration, knowledge orientation, hybridization, and explanation. The data space and the pattern space can be explored in several ways, depending on specific evaluation functions and heuristics, possibly related to domain knowledge. Furthermore, numerical data are complex and supervised numerical machine learning methods are usually the best candidates for efficiently mining such data. However, the work and output of numerical methods are most of the time hard to understand, while symbolic methods are usually more intelligible. This calls for hybridization, combining numerical and symbolic mining methods to improve the applicability and interpretability of KDD. Moreover, suitable explanations about the operating models and possible subsequent decisions should complete KDD, and this is far from being the case at the moment. For illustrating these dimensions and objectives, we analyze a concrete case about the mining of biological data, where we characterize these dimensions and their connections. We also discuss dimensions and objectives in the framework of Formal Concept Analysis and we draw some perspectives for future research