Atrial fibrillation progression risk factors and associated cardiovascular outcome in well-phenotyped patients:data from the AF-RISK study

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease, but identifying patients at risk for AF progression is challenging. We aimed to identify factors associated with AF progression. Methods and results: Atrial fibrillation progression was assessed in 392 patients with recent-onset paroxysmal or persistent AF included in the prospective, observational, multicentre identification of a risk profile to guide atrial fibrillation (AF-RISK) study. Progression of AF was assessed by Holter monitoring and 2-week event recorder at baseline and 1-year follow-up. AF progression was defined as: (i) doubling in AF burden at 1 year compared to baseline with a minimum AF burden of 10% in paroxysmal AF; or (ii) transition from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF; or (iii) persistent to permanent AF. Age was 60 ± 11 years, 62% were men, and 83% had paroxysmal AF. At 1 year, 52 (13%) had AF progression (11% in paroxysmal; 26% in persistent AF). Multivariable logistic regression showed that left atrial volume [odds ratio (OR) per 10 mL 1.251, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.078-1.450; P < 0.001], N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; OR per standard deviation increase 1.583, 95% CI 1.099-2.281; P = 0.014), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; OR per standard deviation increase 0.660, 95% CI 0.472-0.921; P = 0.015) were associated with AF progression. In an additional follow-up of 1.9 (0.9-3.3) years patients with AF progression developed more cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality (12.4%/year vs. 2.3%/year, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Atrial fibrillation progression occurred in 13% of patients with recent-onset AF during 1-year follow-up. Left atrial volume, NT-proBNP, and PAI-1 were associated with AF progression. Patients with AF progression had a higher event rate. Trial registration number: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01510210

Vitamin K Antagonists, Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants, and Vascular Calcification in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Background  Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) are associated with coronary artery calcification in low-risk populations, but their effect on calcification of large arteries remains uncertain. The effect of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) on vascular calcification is unknown. We investigated the influence of use of VKA and NOAC on calcification of the aorta and aortic valve. Methods  In patients with atrial fibrillation without a history of major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events who underwent computed tomographic angiography, the presence of ascending aorta calcification (AsAC), descending aorta calcification (DAC), and aortic valve calcification (AVC) was determined. Confounders for VKA/NOAC treatment were identified and propensity score adjusted logistic regression explored the association between treatment and calcification (Agatston score > 0). AsAC, DAC, and AVC differences were assessed in propensity score-matched groups. Results  Of 236 patients (33% female, age: 58 ± 9 years), 71 (30%) used VKA (median duration: 122 weeks) and 79 (34%) used NOAC (median duration: 16 weeks). Propensity score-adjusted logistic regression revealed that use of VKA was significantly associated with AsAC (odds ratio [OR]: 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16-4.59; p  = 0.017) and DAC (OR: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.22-4.67; p  = 0.012) and a trend in AVC (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 0.98-3.80; p  = 0.059) compared with non-anticoagulation. This association was absent in NOAC versus non-anticoagulant (AsAC OR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.21-1.21; p  = 0.127; DAC OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.36-1.76; p  = 0.577; AVC OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.27-1.40; p  = 0.248). A total of 178 patients were propensity score matched in three pairwise comparisons. Again, use of VKA was associated with DAC ( p  = 0.043) and a trend toward more AsAC ( p  = 0.059), while use of NOAC was not (AsAC p  = 0.264; DAC p  = 0.154; AVC p  = 0.280). Conclusion  This cross-sectional study shows that use of VKA seems to contribute to vascular calcification. The calcification effect was not observed in NOAC users

An angiopoietin 2, FGF23, and BMP10 biomarker signature differentiates atrial fibrillation from other concomitant cardiovascular conditions

Abstract Early detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) enables initiation of anticoagulation and early rhythm control therapy to reduce stroke, cardiovascular death, and heart failure. In a cross-sectional, observational study, we aimed to identify a combination of circulating biomolecules reflecting different biological processes to detect prevalent AF in patients with cardiovascular conditions presenting to hospital. Twelve biomarkers identified by reviewing literature and patents were quantified on a high-precision, high-throughput platform in 1485 consecutive patients with cardiovascular conditions (median age 69 years [Q1, Q3 60, 78]; 60% male). Patients had either known AF (45%) or AF ruled out by 7-day ECG-monitoring. Logistic regression with backward elimination and a neural network approach considering 7 key clinical characteristics and 12 biomarker concentrations were applied to a randomly sampled discovery cohort (n = 933) and validated in the remaining patients (n = 552). In addition to age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), BMP10, ANGPT2, and FGF23 identified patients with prevalent AF (AUC 0.743 [95% CI 0.712, 0.775]). These circulating biomolecules represent distinct pathways associated with atrial cardiomyopathy and AF. Neural networks identified the same variables as the regression-based approach. The validation using regression yielded an AUC of 0.719 (95% CI 0.677, 0.762), corroborated using deep neural networks (AUC 0.784 [95% CI 0.745, 0.822]). Age, sex, BMI and three circulating biomolecules (BMP10, ANGPT2, FGF23) are associated with prevalent AF in unselected patients presenting to hospital. Findings should be externally validated. Results suggest that age and different disease processes approximated by these three biomolecules contribute to AF in patients. Our findings have the potential to improve screening programs for AF after external validation

Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study for atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects more than 33 million individuals worldwide and has a complex heritability. We conducted the largest meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for AF to date, consisting of more than half a million individuals, including 65,446 with AF. In total, we identified 97 loci significantly associated with AF, including 67 that were novel in a combined-ancestry analysis, and 3 that were novel in a European-specific analysis. We sought to identify AF-associated genes at the GWAS loci by performing RNA-sequencing and expression quantitative trait locus analyses in 101 left atrial samples, the most relevant tissue for AF. We also performed transcriptome-wide analyses that identified 57 AF-associated genes, 42 of which overlap with GWAS loci. The identified loci implicate genes enriched within cardiac developmental, electrophysiological, contractile and structural pathways. These results extend our understanding of the biological pathways underlying AF and may facilitate the development of therapeutics for AF

Frequency and Determinants of Spontaneous Conversion to Sinus Rhythm in Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department with Recent-onset Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review

The exact frequency and clinical determinants of spontaneous conversion (SCV) in patients with symptomatic recent-onset AF are unclear. The aim of this systematic review is to provide an overview of the frequency and determinants of SCV of AF in patients presenting at the emergency department. A comprehensive literature search for studies about SCV in patients presenting to the emergency department with AF resulted in 25 articles - 12 randomised controlled trials and 13 observational studies. SCV rates range between 9-83% and determinants of SCV also varied between studies. The most important determinants of SCV included short duration of AF

Frequency and Determinants of Spontaneous Conversion to Sinus Rhythm in Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department with Recent-onset Atrial Fibrillation:A Systematic Review

The exact frequency and clinical determinants of spontaneous conversion (SCV) in patients with symptomatic recent-onset AF are unclear. The aim of this systematic review is to provide an overview of the frequency and determinants of SCV of AF in patients presenting at the emergency department. A comprehensive literature search for studies about SCV in patients presenting to the emergency department with AF resulted in 25 articles - 12 randomised controlled trials and 13 observational studies. SCV rates range between 9-83% and determinants of SCV also varied between studies. The most important determinants of SCV included short duration of AF (<24 or <48 hours), low number of episodes, normal atrial dimensions and absence of previous heart disease. The large variation in SCV rate and determinants of SCV was related to differences in duration of the observation period, inclusion and exclusion criteria and in variables used in the prediction models