Effects of Contrarians in the Minority Game

We study the effects of the presence of contrarians in an agent-based model of competing populations. Contrarians are common in societies. These contrarians are agents who deliberately prefer to hold an opinion that is contrary to the prevailing idea of the commons or normal agents. Contrarians are introduced within the context of the Minority Game (MG), which is a binary model for an evolving and adaptive population of agents competing for a limited resource. Results of numerical simulations reveal that the average success rate among the agents depends non-monotonically on the fraction $a_{c}$ of contrarians. For small $a_{c}$, the contrarians systematically outperform the normal agents by avoiding the crowd effect and enhance the overall success rate. For high $a_{c}$, the anti-persistent nature of the MG is disturbed and the few normal agents outperform the contrarians. Qualitative discussion and analytic results for the small $a_{c}$ and high $a_{c}$ regimes are also presented, and the crossover behavior between the two regimes is discussed.Comment: revtex, 11 pages, 4 figure

Who stands in the way of women? Open vs. closed lists and candidate gender in Estonia

The literature on women's descriptive representation has looked at the debate on open and closed lists as a choice between electoral systems. This article instead focuses on whether voters or the parties are biased against female candidates. Using data from six Estonian elections, the article finds that voters are not consistently biased against female candidates and open lists do not necessarily decrease women's representation. However, unknown and non-incumbent female candidates fare significantly worse than similar men. The analysis also shows that parties do not place women in electable positions on closed lists, and closed lists do not improve women's representation

Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the technical analysis. In this article we introduced various statistical quantities examining role of single temporal discretized trend or multitude of trends corresponding to different time delays. Our specific analysis based on Euro-dollar currency pair data at the one minute frequency suggests the importance of cumulative nonrandom effect of trends on the forecasting performance

The long-term price-earnings ratio

price-earnings ratio;value premium;arbitrage trading rule;UK stock returns;contrarian investment Abstract:  The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and is the subject of numerous academic studies. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated due to taking too short-term a view of earnings. Looking at all UK companies since 1975, using the traditional P/E ratio we find the difference in average annual returns between the value and glamour deciles to be 6%. This is similar to other authors' findings. We are able to almost double the value premium by calculating the P/E ratio using earnings averaged over the previous eight years

Joint Effects: A Pilot Investigation of the Impact of Bipolar Disorder and Marijuana Use on Cognitive Function and Mood

Marijuana is the most widely used illicit substance in those diagnosed with bipolar I disorder. However, there is conflicting evidence as to whether marijuana may alleviate or exacerbate mood symptomatology. As bipolar disorder and marijuana use are individually associated with cognitive impairment, it also remains unclear whether there is an additive effect on cognition when bipolar patients use marijuana. The current study aimed to determine the impact of marijuana on mood in bipolar patients and to examine whether marijuana confers an additional negative impact on cognitive function. Twelve patients with bipolar disorder who smoke marijuana (MJBP), 18 bipolar patients who do not smoke (BP), 23 marijuana smokers without other Axis 1 pathology (MJ), and 21 healthy controls (HC) completed a neuropsychological battery. Further, using ecological momentary assessment, participants rated their mood three times daily as well as after each instance of marijuana use over a four-week period. Results revealed that although the MJ, BP, and MJBP groups each exhibited some degree of cognitive impairment relative to HCs, no significant differences between the BP and MJBP groups were apparent, providing no evidence of an additive negative impact of BPD and MJ use on cognition. Additionally, ecological momentary assessment analyses indicated alleviation of mood symptoms in the MJBP group after marijuana use; MJBP participants experienced a substantial decrease in a composite measure of mood symptoms. Findings suggest that for some bipolar patients, marijuana may result in partial alleviation of clinical symptoms. Moreover, this improvement is not at the expense of additional cognitive impairment

Women out, children out : the effect of female labor on portuguese preschool enrollment rates

This article tests whether Portuguese female activity rates have increased preschool enrollment rates. Particularly during the last 20 years, Portuguese women have assumed new roles in the marketplace and have become active workers outside of the home environment. This change has encouraged more sensible decisions with respect to preschool enrollment. Using cointegration techniques, we concluded that female activity rates and real income per capita caused a long-term increase in preschool enrollment rates. Although the percentage of agricultural gross value added to the gross domestic product and the number of preschool institutes were also found to be significant in the estimated vector error correction model, their causal relationship with preschool enrollment was only short term.COMPETE; QREN; FEDER; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Analyst Optimism and Incentives under Market Uncertainty

We examine how analysts’ changing incentives driven by changes in market uncertainty affect their forecast optimism. Analysts issue more optimistically biased earnings forecasts and buy recommendations under high market uncertainty (VIX). The lower reputational costs and larger benefits of optimistic output explain the increased optimistic output: Analysts are less likely to be penalized for inaccuracy and can stimulate more trading activity from optimistically biased output when market uncertainty is high. We find that the likelihood of analysts’ turnover decreases, while the trading volume associated with optimistic output increases, with VIX. No evidence suggests that analysts’ self‐selection affects our findings on optimism and market uncertainty.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137733/1/fire12138.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137733/2/fire12138_am.pd

The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty

We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory for it better to understand and analyse how subjectively means-end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesizing that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot

The 1930s as black mirror: Visions of historical repetition in the global financial press, 2007-2009

Media coverage of the recent financial crisis has referred extensively to various past crises, and in particular to the events of the 1930s. This article suggests that the idea of the Great Depression has effectively come to function as a kind of historical ‘black mirror’ – a quasi-object within which conjuncture and historical representation interact to produce an image of capitalist history itself. Focusing on the journalistic output of four key financial publications, I trace how portrayals of the 1930s have evolved over the course of the crisis. I find that while the 1930s are frequently and consistently invoked in ways that purport to reveal the historicity of the crisis, these representations produce an oscillation between different visions of historical repetition, which in turn underpin competing interpretations of the crisis as it unfolds. In so doing, I argue, appeals to the 1930s have simultaneously served to conceal and disclose the constitutive relation of historical imagination to historical process – a double move that has had the paradoxical effect of both securing and undermining the reproduction of finance capitalism as we have come to know it