Advancing Philanthropy Through Data Analytics

Most foundations are engaged in the art of the possible. They invest in organizations and programs aimed at transforming current realities into better possibilities and in ideas that "push the envelope" in ways that test the edges of what could be. But few foundations are taking advantage of a proven tool for expanding the possible in their own grant making and mission effectiveness: data analysis. Analytic methods are routinely used and considered essential in nearly every other sector of the economy. In healthcare, retail and financial services, to name just a few hotbeds, analytics has dramatically affected what -- with a given amount of time and money -- is possible to measure, to manage, to learn, to change and to achieve. The foundation world -- which holds over USD $1.5 trillion in assets globally and$646.1 billion in the U.S. alone, with annual grant making of approximately $100 billion globally and$46.9 billion in the U.S. -- uses analytic methods to assess, select, monitor, and report on its capital market investments for the 95% of its corpus that generates revenue. These very same methods, with even the introduction of the most basic analytic techniques, will provide demonstrable gains for the remaining 5% of the corpus that is distributed for charitable purposes. Foundations can gain visibility into how resources are allocated across their organization, view grant distribution compared to per capita need and explore outcomes data... among many other uses. For grant making organizations, analytics are a key that can be used to unlock answers to vital questions such as:How well does our grant making align with our strategy and stated tactics?Which grantees produce the best outcomes in support of our mission and strategy?Has this intervention strategy been tried before and, if so, how well did it work?Does this strategy merit replication, and is there evidence that it can be replicated and/or scaled?If we committed the same grant making budget differently, could we produce a greater impact?Board members gain visibility into the execution of top-level strategies and timely enough operational feedback to actually refine their strategic plans and, therefore, better influence desired outcomes in alignment with their mission. Foundations leaders and senior managers gain insights into what is working and clear indicators of where improvements are needed. Program managers gain time-saving tools that simplify their work and help them steer toward grant making objectives. Data analysis also improves communication and coordination by helping all participants arrive at a clear and common understanding of what types of grants and/or investments are being deployed and how they are influencing outcomes. Moreover, improved transparency enables stakeholders and the community at large to better see what investments are accomplishing. This paper looks at some of these early achievements in Kuity's work with The California Endowment (TCE). It also discusses where the nonprofit sector is headed in the implementation of more advanced analytic methods that will yield even greater benefits

Runaway Quarks

When heavy nuclei collide, a quark-gluon plasma is formed. The plasma is subject to strong electric field due to the charge of the colliding nuclei. The electric field can influence the behavior of the quark-gluon plasma. In particular, we might observe an increased number of quarks moving in the direction of that field, as we do in the standard electron-ion plasma. In this paper we show that this phenomenon, called the runaway quarks, does not exist.Comment: 13 pages, uses harvmac.tex, epsf.te

Hematologic Toxicity of Concurrent Administration of Radium-223 and Next-generation Antiandrogen Therapies.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES: Radium-223 is a first-in-class radiopharmaceutical recently approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer in patients with symptomatic bone metastases. Initial studies investigating Radium-223 primarily used nonsteroidal first-generation antiandrogens. Since that time, newer antiandrogen therapies have demonstrated improved survival in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer. It has been suggested that the rational combination of these newly approved agents with Radium-223 may lead to improved response rates and clinical outcomes. Currently, there is lack of information regarding the safety of concurrent administration of these agents with radiopharmaceuticals. Here, we report on hematologic toxicity findings from our institution in patients receiving concurrent Radium-223 and next-generation antiandrogen therapies with either enzalutamide or abiraterone. MATERIALS/METHODS: In a retrospective study, we analyzed patients who received Radium-223 as part of an early-access trial, and following FDA approval in May 2013, patients receiving Radium-223 as part of standard care. Radium-223 was given at standard dosing of 50 kBq/kg each month for 6 total cycles. Complete blood counts were performed before treatment monthly and following each injection. Blood counts from patients receiving Radium alone and concurrently with next-generation antiandrogens were compared. To date, 25 total patients were analyzed, with a median of 5 monthly doses received per patient. Fourteen patients received concurrent therapy during monthly Radium-223 with either enzalutamide (n=8) or abiraterone (n=6). RESULTS: Six patients expired due to disease progression. Two patients discontinued treatment due to grade 3 myelosuppression. For patients receiving either Radium alone and with concurrent next-generation antiandrogen therapy, there did not appear to be any statistically significant differences between initial and nadir blood counts. Mean change from initial neutrophil count to nadir was 1.9×10/L in patients receiving Radium alone, versus 2.3×10/L in patients receiving concurrent therapy (P=0.77). Mean change from initial hemoglobin value to nadir was 1.5 g/L in patients receiving Radium alone, versus 1.8 g/L in patients receiving concurrent therapy (P=0.31). Mean change from initial platelet count to nadir was 52.3×10 cells/L in patients receiving Radium alone versus 70.6×10 cells/L in patients receiving concurrent therapy (P=0.39). Individual blood counts for each measured laboratory are included in the supplemental data. PSA was stable or decreased in 22% of patients receiving Radium alone versus 35% of patients receiving combination treatment (P=0.24). CONCLUSIONS: Concurrent administration of Radium-223 and next-generation antiandrogen therapies appears to be well tolerated with similar toxicities to standard administration of Radium-223 alone. This particular cohort of patients represents a high-risk, heavily pretreated group of patients with advanced metastatic disease and significant marrow burden. Despite these risk factors, hematologic toxicity was modest and was in the range expected for this risk group based on previous trials. To date, this is the first study investigating the toxicity of combination treatment. Further studies investigating the safety and efficacy of combination treatments are warranted

Current in Wave Driven Plasmas

A theory for the generation of current in a toroidal plasma by radio-frequency waves is presented. The effect of an opposing electric field is included, allowing the case of time varying currents to be studied. The key quantities that characterize this regime are identified and numerically calculated. Circuit equations suitable for use in ray-tracing and transport codes are given.Comment: LaTeX 2.09, 26 pages, 7 figure

Effect of binary collisions on electron acceleration in magnetic reconnection

Context. The presence of energetic X-ray sources in the solar corona indicates there are additional transport effects in the acceleration region. A prime method of investigation is to add collisions into models of particle behaviour at the reconnection region.<p></p> Aims. We investigate electron test particle acceleration in a simple model of an X-type reconnection region. In particular, we explore the possibility that collisions will cause electrons to re-enter the acceleration more frequently, in turn causing particles to be accelerated to high energies.<p></p> Methods. The deterministic (Lorentz) description of particle gyration and acceleration has been coupled to a model for the effects of collisions. The resulting equations are solved numerically using Honeycutt’s extension of the RK4 method to stochastic differential equations. This approach ensures a correct description of collisional energy loss and pitch-angle scattering combined with a sufficiently precise description of gyro-motion and acceleration.<p></p> Results. Even with initially mono-energetic electrons, the competition between collisions and acceleration results in a distribution of electron energies. When realistic model parameters are used, electrons achieve X-ray energies. A possible model for coronal hard X-ray sources is indicated. Conclusions. Even in competition with energy losses, pitch-angle scattering results in a small proportion of electrons reaching higher energies than they would in a collisionless situation.<p></p&gt

Electric fields in solar magnetic structures due to gradient driven instabilities: heating and acceleration of particles

The electrostatic instabilities driven by the gradients of the density, temperature and magnetic field, are discussed in their application to solar magnetic structures. Strongly growing modes are found for some typical plasma parameters. These instabilities i) imply the presence of electric fields that can accelerate the plasma particles in both perpendicular and parallel directions with respect to the magnetic field vector, and ii) can stochastically heat ions. The perpendicular acceleration is to the leading order determined by the \bmath{E}\times \bmath{B}-drift acting equally on both ions and electrons, while the parallel acceleration is most effective on electrons. The experimentally confirmed stochastic heating is shown to act mainly in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field vector and acts stronger on heavier ions. The energy release rate and heating may exceed for several orders of magnitude the value accepted as necessary for a self-sustained heating in the solar corona. The energy source for both the acceleration and the heating is stored in the mentioned background gradients.Comment: To appear in MNRA

Simultaneous solution of Kompaneets equation and Radiative Transfer equation in the photon energy range 1 - 125 KeV

Radiative transfer equation in plane parallel geometry and Kompaneets equation is solved simultaneously to obtain theoretical spectrum of 1-125 KeV photon energy range. Diffuse radiation field is calculated using time-independent radiative transfer equation in plane parallel geometry, which is developed using discrete space theory (DST) of radiative transfer in a homogeneous medium for different optical depths. We assumed free-free emission and absorption and emission due to electron gas to be operating in the medium. The three terms $n, n^2$ and $\displaystyle \bigg({\frac {\partial n}{\partial x_k}}\bigg)$ where $n$ is photon phase density and $\displaystyle x_k= \bigg({\frac {h \nu} {k T_e}} \bigg)$, in Kompaneets equation and those due to free-free emission are utilized to calculate the change in the photon phase density in a hot electron gas. Two types of incident radiation are considered: (1) isotropic radiation with the modified black body radiation $I^{MB}$ [1] and (2) anisotropic radiation which is angle dependent. The emergent radiation at $\tau=0$ and reflected radiation $\tau=\tau_{max}$ are calculated by using the diffuse radiation from the medium. The emergent and reflected radiation contain the free-free emission and emission from the hot electron gas. Kompaneets equation gives the changes in photon phase densities in different types of media. Although the initial spectrum is angle dependent, the Kompaneets equation gives a spectrum which is angle independent after several Compton scattering times.Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures, Accepte

The Effect of Coherent Structures on Stochastic Acceleration in MHD Turbulence

We investigate the influence of coherent structures on particle acceleration in the strongly turbulent solar corona. By randomizing the Fourier phases of a pseudo-spectral simulation of isotropic MHD turbulence (Re $\sim 300$), and tracing collisionless test protons in both the exact-MHD and phase-randomized fields, it is found that the phase correlations enhance the acceleration efficiency during the first adiabatic stage of the acceleration process. The underlying physical mechanism is identified as the dynamical MHD alignment of the magnetic field with the electric current, which favours parallel (resistive) electric fields responsible for initial injection. Conversely, the alignment of the magnetic field with the bulk velocity weakens the acceleration by convective electric fields - \bfu \times \bfb at a non-adiabatic stage of the acceleration process. We point out that non-physical parallel electric fields in random-phase turbulence proxies lead to artificial acceleration, and that the dynamical MHD alignment can be taken into account on the level of the joint two-point function of the magnetic and electric fields, and is therefore amenable to Fokker-Planck descriptions of stochastic acceleration.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

Gyrokinetic electron acceleration in the force-free corona with anomalous resistivity

We numerically explore electron acceleration and coronal heating by dissipative electric fields. Electrons are traced in linear force-free magnetic fields extrapolated from SOHO/MDI magnetograms, endowed with anomalous resistivity ($\eta$) in localized dissipation regions where the magnetic twist \nabla \times \bhat exceeds a given threshold. Associated with $\eta > 0$ is a parallel electric field ${\bf E} = \eta {\bf j}$ which can accelerate runaway electrons. In order to gain observational predictions we inject electrons inside the dissipation regions and follow them for several seconds in real time. Precipitating electrons which leave the simulation system at height $z$ = 0 are associated with hard X rays, and electrons which escape at height $z$ $\sim$ 3$\cdot 10^4$ km are associated with normal-drifting type IIIs at the local plasma frequency. A third, trapped, population is related to gyrosynchrotron emission. Time profiles and spectra of all three emissions are calculated, and their dependence on the geometric model parameters and on $\eta$ is explored. It is found that precipitation generally preceeds escape by fractions of a second, and that the electrons perform many visits to the dissipation regions before leaving the simulation system. The electrons impacting $z$ = 0 reach higher energies than the escaping ones, and non-Maxwellian tails are observed at energies above the largest potential drop across a single dissipation region. Impact maps at $z$ = 0 show a tendency of the electrons to arrive at the borders of sunspots of one polarity. Although the magnetograms used here belong to non-flaring times, so that the simulations refer to nanoflares and `quiescent' coronal heating, it is conjectured that the same process, on a larger scale, is responsible for solar flares

Solar Particle Acceleration at Reconnecting 3D Null Points

Context: The strong electric fields associated with magnetic reconnection in solar flares are a plausible mechanism to accelerate populations of high energy, non-thermal particles. One such reconnection scenario occurs at a 3D magnetic null point, where global plasma flows give rise to strong currents in the spine axis or fan plane. Aims: To understand the mechanism of charged particle energy gain in both the external drift region and the diffusion region associated with 3D magnetic reconnection. In doing so we evaluate the efficiency of resistive spine and fan models for particle acceleration, and find possible observables for each. Method: We use a full orbit test particle approach to study proton trajectories within electromagnetic fields that are exact solutions to the steady and incompressible magnetohydrodynamic equations. We study single particle trajectories and find energy spectra from many particle simulations. The scaling properties of the accelerated particles with respect to field and plasma parameters is investigated. Results: For fan reconnection, strong non-uniform electric drift streamlines can accelerate the bulk of the test particles. The highest energy gain is for particles that enter the current sheet, where an increasing "guide field" stabilises particles against ejection. The energy is only limited by the total electric potential energy difference across the fan current sheet. The spine model has both slow external electric drift speed and weak energy gain for particles reaching the current sheet. Conclusions: The electromagnetic fields of fan reconnection can accelerate protons to the high energies observed in solar flares, gaining up to 0.1 GeV for anomalous values of resistivity. However, the spine model, which gave a harder energy spectrum in the ideal case, is not an efficient accelerator after pressure constraints in the resistive model are included.Comment: 15 pages, 14 figures. Submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysic